The EUR/USD pair moved within a narrow range with a mild negative bias below the 1.1700 level during today's Asian session.
Although the weekly trend remains positive, traders appear reluctant to take large positions before the release of crucial US CPI (Inflation) data tonight.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Fundamental Tug-of-War: Oil vs. Diplomacy
Current market sentiment is influenced by two opposing forces:
- ⚡Pressure Factors (EUR Bearish): Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted oil prices. This has fueled concerns about global inflation, forcing the Fed to remain hawkish, strengthening the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset.
- ⚡Supporting Factors (EUR Bullish): Hopes for a stable ceasefire through Washington negotiations next week between Lebanon, Israel, and Iran, and the US, are holding back excessive dollar appreciation. Investors are focused on US CPI data to see if the surge in energy prices has impacted consumer purchasing power.
✅ Technical Indicators: Constructive Bias Remains
Technically, EUR/USD has just passed a critical phase that has now transformed into a support zone:
- ⚡Confluence Zone (1.1665 – 1.1672): The price has successfully broken above the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This overnight breakout is a significant bullish signal. As long as the price remains above this zone, the medium-term bullish bias remains valid.
- ⚡RSI (58): Shows healthy upward momentum and still has ample room to go before reaching the overbought area.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
🎯 Key Levels to Watch 🎯
- ⚡Resistance 1 (1.1742): The 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level. The nearest target for buyers if the US CPI data comes in lower than expected.
- ⚡Key Resistance (1.1820): The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break above this level would open the door to 1.1931 and 1.2072.
- ⚡Critical Support (1.1665 – 1.1672): 200-day SMA. This is the most important resistance level; if it breaks, this week's uptrend will be shattered.
Although the weekly trend remains positive, traders appear reluctant to take large positions before the release of crucial US CPI (Inflation) data tonight.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Fundamental Tug-of-War: Oil vs. Diplomacy
Current market sentiment is influenced by two opposing forces:
- ⚡Pressure Factors (EUR Bearish): Iran's re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has boosted oil prices. This has fueled concerns about global inflation, forcing the Fed to remain hawkish, strengthening the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven asset.
- ⚡Supporting Factors (EUR Bullish): Hopes for a stable ceasefire through Washington negotiations next week between Lebanon, Israel, and Iran, and the US, are holding back excessive dollar appreciation. Investors are focused on US CPI data to see if the surge in energy prices has impacted consumer purchasing power.
✅ Technical Indicators: Constructive Bias Remains
Technically, EUR/USD has just passed a critical phase that has now transformed into a support zone:
- ⚡Confluence Zone (1.1665 – 1.1672): The price has successfully broken above the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This overnight breakout is a significant bullish signal. As long as the price remains above this zone, the medium-term bullish bias remains valid.
- ⚡RSI (58): Shows healthy upward momentum and still has ample room to go before reaching the overbought area.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
🎯 Key Levels to Watch 🎯
- ⚡Resistance 1 (1.1742): The 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement Level. The nearest target for buyers if the US CPI data comes in lower than expected.
- ⚡Key Resistance (1.1820): The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A break above this level would open the door to 1.1931 and 1.2072.
- ⚡Critical Support (1.1665 – 1.1672): 200-day SMA. This is the most important resistance level; if it breaks, this week's uptrend will be shattered.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.