Fundamental Analysis
EURUSD is trading in a constructive recovery structure as traders continue to watch USD momentum, Fed expectations, and upcoming macro data.
For now, the technical structure is improving as price holds above the EMA value zone. If USD momentum weakens, EURUSD may continue its recovery toward the next resistance and Fibonacci target zones.
Technical Analysis
On the 1H chart, EURUSD has shifted into a stronger recovery phase after forming higher lows from the lower structure. EMA 34, EMA 89, and EMA 200 have started to turn upward, showing that the short-term trend is improving.
Price is currently trading around 1.1603 and holding near the EMA value zone around 1.1598 - 1.1604. This area is important because it aligns with the upward trendline, EMA support, and the current bullish structure.
The key support to protect the bullish setup is around 1.1575 - 1.1586. If price holds above this area, buyers may continue to defend the trend.
The first upside target is strong resistance 1 around 1.1644. If price breaks above this level, EURUSD may extend toward strong resistance 2 around 1.1685, followed by the Fibonacci resistance target around 1.1696.
Important Key Levels
Current price area: 1.1603
EMA value buy zone: 1.1598 - 1.1604
Upward trendline support: 1.1586 - 1.1600
Invalidation area: below 1.1575
Strong resistance 1: 1.1644
Strong resistance 2: 1.1685
Fibonacci resistance target: 1.1696
Trading Scenario
Main Buy Scenario
Entry: 1.1598 - 1.1604
Stop Loss: 1.1575
Take Profit 1: 1.1644
Take Profit 2: 1.1685
Take Profit 3: 1.1696
Buy Condition
The preferred setup is to wait for EURUSD to hold the 1.1598 - 1.1604 EMA value zone. This area is important because it aligns with EMA support and the upward trendline structure.
A buy setup becomes more valid if price forms bullish rejection from this zone, such as a long lower wick, bullish engulfing candle, higher low formation, or a clean reclaim above 1.1604.
If price holds above the EMA zone and breaks 1.1644, the bullish continuation view becomes stronger. The next upside targets are 1.1685 and the Fibonacci resistance zone around 1.1696.
Alternative Sell Scenario
Entry: 1.1685 - 1.1696
Stop Loss: 1.1710
Take Profit 1: 1.1644
Take Profit 2: 1.1604
Take Profit 3: 1.1586
Sell Condition
This is not the main view. A sell setup should only be considered if EURUSD reaches the upper resistance zone and shows clear bearish rejection.
If price fails to break above 1.1685 - 1.1696, sellers may create a short-term pullback back toward the EMA value zone.
Entry Conditions
Wait for price to hold 1.1598 - 1.1604.
Look for bullish confirmation from the EMA value zone.
A break above 1.1644 confirms stronger upside momentum.
If price breaks below 1.1575, the buy setup is invalid.
Overall, the main view is bullish while EURUSD holds above the EMA value zone and upward trendline. The preferred plan is to wait for a clean reaction from 1.1598 - 1.1604, then look for continuation toward 1.1644, 1.1685, and the Fibonacci resistance target at 1.1696.
Do you share the same bullish view on EURUSD, or are you waiting for confirmation above 1.1644 first?
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📊 XAU Macro Pulse · XAUUSD · GBPUSD · EURUSD
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Every setup earns its place on the chart.
🔔 Follow the structure. The rest is noise.
Personal analysis only t.me/+TxpetmVvKGhjZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.