📊 Market Structure Overview
EURUSD is currently trading into a major weekly supply / resistance zone while respecting a long-term descending trendline connecting multiple swing highs. Price has approached this area several times historically and reacted with strong bearish momentum — making it a high-probability reaction zone on the HTF.
🔎 Key Technical Observations
📍 Trading Plan (Idea — Not Financial Advice)
➡️ Primary Bias: Bearish from weekly resistance.
➡️ Entry Concept:
Wait for lower-timeframe confirmation such as:
➡️ Targets:
⚠️ Risk Factors / Invalidation
🧠 Final Thoughts
This setup aligns with a classic premium sell model — price rallies into HTF supply + trendline confluence before targeting imbalances below. Patience is key: confirmation matters more than prediction.
EURUSD is currently trading into a major weekly supply / resistance zone while respecting a long-term descending trendline connecting multiple swing highs. Price has approached this area several times historically and reacted with strong bearish momentum — making it a high-probability reaction zone on the HTF.
🔎 Key Technical Observations
- Price is testing a multi-year descending trendline → strong dynamic resistance.
- Presence of SMC concepts on chart: BOS / CHoCH and visible FVG zones below current price.
- Current rally looks like a liquidity grab into premium pricing within weekly structure.
- Equal / relative highs marked — potential buy-side liquidity before reversal.
- HTF structure overall remains bearish / corrective, not a confirmed bullish trend reversal.
📍 Trading Plan (Idea — Not Financial Advice)
➡️ Primary Bias: Bearish from weekly resistance.
➡️ Entry Concept:
Wait for lower-timeframe confirmation such as:
- Bearish engulfing candle
- Pin bar rejection
- Market structure shift / CHoCH
➡️ Targets:
- First reaction → mid FVG / internal demand
- Major target → HTF demand zone around parity region (~1.00 area)
- Extended bearish scenario → deeper weekly demand near lower red zone
⚠️ Risk Factors / Invalidation
- Strong weekly close above trendline and resistance zone.
- Bullish continuation with sustained higher highs + higher lows on HTF.
- Macro catalysts (ECB/Fed policy shifts) could accelerate volatility.
🧠 Final Thoughts
This setup aligns with a classic premium sell model — price rallies into HTF supply + trendline confluence before targeting imbalances below. Patience is key: confirmation matters more than prediction.
Trade active
EUR/USD is falling primarily due to a surging U.S. dollar, driven by safe-haven demand amidst intensifying Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices. Stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data, expectations of delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts, and concerns regarding European economic weakness further accelerate this decline.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.