📝 Description:
Published: August 16, 2026
Timeframe: H1, M15, M5
Trade Horizon: 2–4 hours (Morning London Session)
🔍 Technical Outlook
EUR/USD closed the week near a key resistance zone. On the H1 chart, the pair remains within a rising channel, but a bearish RSI divergence is clearly visible: price made higher highs, while RSI formed lower highs.
On the M15 timeframe, a Double Top pattern has formed with a peak at 1.1585, increasing the probability of a downside correction before any further upside continuation.
Markets are currently closed, so Monday's opening price and the reaction to the London session start at 10:00 AM MSK (07:00 GMT) will be the main drivers.
Key Levels:
Level Price Zone
Resistance (Sell Zone) 1.1570 – 1.1585
Key Support (Buy Zone) 1.1530 – 1.1540
Critical Level 1.1500
⚔️ Trading Scenarios for Monday (after 10:00 AM MSK)
⚠️ Important: I will not enter at exactly 10:00. I wait 5–15 minutes for the spread to normalize and a clear M5 candle to form.
Scenario A – Bearish (Put) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or breaks above 1.1585 (false breakout / gap up).
Logic: A fake breakout above the resistance, followed by a reversal due to the bearish divergence.
Entry (Entry): After a bearish reversal candle (pin bar / engulfing) on M5 near 1.1580 – 1.1595.
Target: Gap fill and drop toward 1.1540.
Expiry: 2 hours (until 12:00 MSK).
Scenario B – Bullish (Call) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or corrects lower into the support zone 1.1530 – 1.1540.
Logic: The pair reaches the lower boundary of the rising channel on H1, where buying interest is expected.
Entry (Entry): After a bullish reversal signal (hammer / engulfing) on M5 from 1.1530–1.1540.
Target: Return to 1.1570, with a potential extension toward 1.1600.
Expiry: 3–4 hours (until 13:00–14:00 MSK).
Scenario C – Flat / Wait – Probability: 10%
Condition: Price opens around Friday's close (1.1567) without clear direction in the first 15 minutes.
Action: Wait for a breakout above 1.1575 (Call) or below 1.1560 (Put), then follow the first strong M5 candle.
⚠️ Risk Management
Entry Time: Never enter at 10:00 sharp. Spreads are widest at the London open. The best entry window is 10:05 – 10:15 MSK.
Position Size: Due to Monday gap risks, risk no more than 1–2% of your total account per trade.
News: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday, so technical levels will be the main driver.
📌 Bottom Line
EUR/USD is at a critical resistance zone. I will wait for confirmation during the first 15 minutes of the London session. My priority is to trade AGAINST false breakouts of the 1.1585 zone.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves high risk. Always manage your risk responsibly.
Published: August 16, 2026
Timeframe: H1, M15, M5
Trade Horizon: 2–4 hours (Morning London Session)
🔍 Technical Outlook
EUR/USD closed the week near a key resistance zone. On the H1 chart, the pair remains within a rising channel, but a bearish RSI divergence is clearly visible: price made higher highs, while RSI formed lower highs.
On the M15 timeframe, a Double Top pattern has formed with a peak at 1.1585, increasing the probability of a downside correction before any further upside continuation.
Markets are currently closed, so Monday's opening price and the reaction to the London session start at 10:00 AM MSK (07:00 GMT) will be the main drivers.
Key Levels:
Level Price Zone
Resistance (Sell Zone) 1.1570 – 1.1585
Key Support (Buy Zone) 1.1530 – 1.1540
Critical Level 1.1500
⚔️ Trading Scenarios for Monday (after 10:00 AM MSK)
⚠️ Important: I will not enter at exactly 10:00. I wait 5–15 minutes for the spread to normalize and a clear M5 candle to form.
Scenario A – Bearish (Put) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or breaks above 1.1585 (false breakout / gap up).
Logic: A fake breakout above the resistance, followed by a reversal due to the bearish divergence.
Entry (Entry): After a bearish reversal candle (pin bar / engulfing) on M5 near 1.1580 – 1.1595.
Target: Gap fill and drop toward 1.1540.
Expiry: 2 hours (until 12:00 MSK).
Scenario B – Bullish (Call) – Probability: 45%
Condition: Price opens or corrects lower into the support zone 1.1530 – 1.1540.
Logic: The pair reaches the lower boundary of the rising channel on H1, where buying interest is expected.
Entry (Entry): After a bullish reversal signal (hammer / engulfing) on M5 from 1.1530–1.1540.
Target: Return to 1.1570, with a potential extension toward 1.1600.
Expiry: 3–4 hours (until 13:00–14:00 MSK).
Scenario C – Flat / Wait – Probability: 10%
Condition: Price opens around Friday's close (1.1567) without clear direction in the first 15 minutes.
Action: Wait for a breakout above 1.1575 (Call) or below 1.1560 (Put), then follow the first strong M5 candle.
⚠️ Risk Management
Entry Time: Never enter at 10:00 sharp. Spreads are widest at the London open. The best entry window is 10:05 – 10:15 MSK.
Position Size: Due to Monday gap risks, risk no more than 1–2% of your total account per trade.
News: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday, so technical levels will be the main driver.
📌 Bottom Line
EUR/USD is at a critical resistance zone. I will wait for confirmation during the first 15 minutes of the London session. My priority is to trade AGAINST false breakouts of the 1.1585 zone.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading Forex involves high risk. Always manage your risk responsibly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.