Following yesterday's (June 17) hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate decision and dot-plot projection, XAUUSD experienced an aggressive selloff down to a low of $4,219, breaking structure locally before staging a strong intraday rebound during today's Asian and European sessions back up toward the $4,320–$4,330 region.
From an SMC and Supply/Demand perspective, the market is currently presenting a high-probability bearish premium mitigation or short continuation setup, unless a specific structural flip occurs.
1. The Bearish Continuation Setup (Primary Bias)
Premium Supply / Order Block Zone: The key area of interest sits between $4,325 and $4,360. This zone aligns with a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), a bearish Order Block, and key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Invalidation / Structural Shift: $4,360 – $4,370. A daily or sustained 4H close above $4,370 invalidates the bearish bias, completing a bullish Change of Character (ChoCh) and clearing the descending trendline.
Targets (Liquidity Pools): If the price shows lower-timeframe (LTF) rejection or a distribution pattern inside the $4,330–$4,360 zone, the high-probability targets are:
Target 1: Previous Day Low (PDL) / Liquidity Pool at $4,219
Target 2: Major HTF Demand Zone at $4,170
2. The Counter-Trend Bullish Setup (Liquidity Sweep)
Some buyers are actively defending the major higher-timeframe demand zone just below the recent lows.
The Play: If the current upward momentum aggressively breaks and closes above $4,370, it confirms yesterday's drop was a massive liquidity sweep of the lower ranges.
Targets: A structural break above $4,370 shifts the targets immediately upward to $4,470 and $4,520 into the swing-high supply zones.
Risk Note: With massive macroeconomic shifts playing out this week, volatility remains highly expanded. If entering the premium supply zone, look for a clean LTF market structure shift (MSS) on the 5-minute chart before executing to keep stops tight.
From an SMC and Supply/Demand perspective, the market is currently presenting a high-probability bearish premium mitigation or short continuation setup, unless a specific structural flip occurs.
1. The Bearish Continuation Setup (Primary Bias)
Premium Supply / Order Block Zone: The key area of interest sits between $4,325 and $4,360. This zone aligns with a 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG), a bearish Order Block, and key Fibonacci retracement levels.
Invalidation / Structural Shift: $4,360 – $4,370. A daily or sustained 4H close above $4,370 invalidates the bearish bias, completing a bullish Change of Character (ChoCh) and clearing the descending trendline.
Targets (Liquidity Pools): If the price shows lower-timeframe (LTF) rejection or a distribution pattern inside the $4,330–$4,360 zone, the high-probability targets are:
Target 1: Previous Day Low (PDL) / Liquidity Pool at $4,219
Target 2: Major HTF Demand Zone at $4,170
2. The Counter-Trend Bullish Setup (Liquidity Sweep)
Some buyers are actively defending the major higher-timeframe demand zone just below the recent lows.
The Play: If the current upward momentum aggressively breaks and closes above $4,370, it confirms yesterday's drop was a massive liquidity sweep of the lower ranges.
Targets: A structural break above $4,370 shifts the targets immediately upward to $4,470 and $4,520 into the swing-high supply zones.
Risk Note: With massive macroeconomic shifts playing out this week, volatility remains highly expanded. If entering the premium supply zone, look for a clean LTF market structure shift (MSS) on the 5-minute chart before executing to keep stops tight.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.