Probable Scenario Analysis:
⏺ Present Scenario:
Presently, Gold is in a hyper-contraction phase. Technically, gold is flat and making too many random moves. There is no trend confirmation yet. However, the instrument is offering the allure of a potential trend just to disappoint the momentum traders. Both bulls and bears are trapped. There is an observable triple top formation. Bulls are continuously trapped above 4400.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is no confident bullish scenario. However, if the price decisively sustains above 4450, then a confident bullish setup might emerge. The probable bullish targets above 4450 would be - 4475 and 4500.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
There is no confident bearish scenario. However, if the price decisively sustains below 4350, then a confident bearish setup might emerge. The probable bearish targets below 4350 would be - 4325 and 4300. Next, the price decisively breaking down below 4300 would offer strong selling. The probable bearish targets below 4300 would be - 4275 and 4250.
🟡 No Trading Zone: (4450 - 4300).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4450 - 4300).
Here, 4375 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes on 19 August 2026 (Wednesday) at 11:30 PM IST.
- No other high impact event.
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
⏺ Present Scenario:
Presently, Gold is in a hyper-contraction phase. Technically, gold is flat and making too many random moves. There is no trend confirmation yet. However, the instrument is offering the allure of a potential trend just to disappoint the momentum traders. Both bulls and bears are trapped. There is an observable triple top formation. Bulls are continuously trapped above 4400.
🟢 Bullish Scenario
There is no confident bullish scenario. However, if the price decisively sustains above 4450, then a confident bullish setup might emerge. The probable bullish targets above 4450 would be - 4475 and 4500.
🔴 Bearish Scenario
There is no confident bearish scenario. However, if the price decisively sustains below 4350, then a confident bearish setup might emerge. The probable bearish targets below 4350 would be - 4325 and 4300. Next, the price decisively breaking down below 4300 would offer strong selling. The probable bearish targets below 4300 would be - 4275 and 4250.
🟡 No Trading Zone: (4450 - 4300).
⏺ Range of Consolidation (ROC): (4450 - 4300).
Here, 4375 is the median of the ROC. The median works like a trading session sentiment evaluator. The price trading above the median would offer bullish sentiment, while the price trading below the median would trigger bearish sentiment within the ROC.
● Events:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes on 19 August 2026 (Wednesday) at 11:30 PM IST.
- No other high impact event.
● Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly Bias
Establish bias with respect to the opening price (of the particular session - Intraday, Weekly, and Monthly). If the price sustains above the opening price, then don't think of shorting. Look for bullish trades only. On the contrary, if the price sustains below the opening price, then don't think of going long. Look for bearish trades in that case.
● Disclaimer + End Note
- All the analyses would fail in the case of a major gap up, gap down, or price structure anomaly. Thus, practice PRAGMATISM in the live session.
- Trade only if there is a set-up. Remember, not trading is an extension of the trading activity.
- Mark your points. Trade your points. Price is GOD. Anything can happen in the markets. Thus, trade what you see, not what you believe.
- Always PRACTICE RISK MANAGEMENT. Always PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Be RESPONSIBLE.
- Be Strategic. Be Courageous. Be Patient. Be Wise.
- Every day is a new day. Thus, do not carry the baggage of past successes or failures. Leave the gardens of winning and losing. Establish yourself in equanimity. Always think from a new perspective.
- Let the joy of trading drive your effectiveness, not greed or fear. Believe in Possibilities.
Happy Trading!
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.