Gold MCX Daily Chart Analysis – Expanding Triangle Completion & Major Bearish Outlook
The chart suggests that Gold MCX may be completing a large ABCDE corrective triangle pattern, with price currently approaching the final stages of Wave D before entering the anticipated Wave E decline. The overall structure remains bearish as long as price stays below the descending channel resistance.
Larger Pattern Structure
The blue trendlines form a broad descending channel that has contained price action since the January 2026 peak. Within this structure:
Wave A marked the first major correction from the all-time high region.
Wave B produced a sharp recovery but failed to establish a new sustainable uptrend.
Wave C completed with a significant decline into the March lows near 128,000.
Wave D is currently unfolding as a counter-trend rally within the larger corrective pattern.
Wave E, the final leg of the correction, is expected to begin once Wave D reaches completion.
The repeated rejection from the upper boundary of the channel indicates that sellers continue to dominate the higher time frame trend.
Current Market Position
Gold has recently bounced from the critical support zone around 148,500, which coincides with:
Prior Wave B support.
A major demand zone.
The base of the current recovery structure.
This support has triggered a short-term rebound, but the move appears corrective rather than impulsive.
Key Resistance Levels
Several Fibonacci retracement levels are acting as overhead resistance:
Level Price
0.618 Retracement 150,326
0.50 Retracement 152,307
Major Supply Zone 155,500 – 158,500
Wave D Target 160,700
The preferred scenario is for price to rally into the 152,000–160,700 resistance region, where Wave D is expected to terminate.
Bearish Wave E Projection
Upon completion of Wave D, the chart anticipates a strong decline forming Wave E.
Potential downside targets include:
143,914 (100% extension)
133,540 (1.618 extension)
127,128 (2.0 extension)
The projected blue path suggests that once the rally exhausts itself, a breakdown below 148,500 could accelerate selling pressure toward these lower targets.
Technical Confluence Supporting the Bearish View
Descending channel remains intact.
Multiple supply zones overhead.
Fibonacci retracement resistance clustered between 150,000 and 160,000.
Corrective ABCDE structure nearing completion.
Lack of impulsive bullish price action despite recent bounce.
Trading Outlook
The near-term outlook remains constructive while Gold holds above 148,500, allowing for a final recovery toward 152,000–160,700. However, the larger technical structure continues to favor a bearish resolution. A rejection from the projected Wave D zone would likely signal the beginning of Wave E, opening the door for a decline toward 133,500–127,000 over the coming weeks and months.
Key takeaway: The current rally appears to be a counter-trend move within a larger corrective formation. Unless Gold breaks decisively above 160,700 and the descending channel resistance, the probability remains elevated for a substantial Wave E decline toward the 127,000 region.
The chart suggests that Gold MCX may be completing a large ABCDE corrective triangle pattern, with price currently approaching the final stages of Wave D before entering the anticipated Wave E decline. The overall structure remains bearish as long as price stays below the descending channel resistance.
Larger Pattern Structure
The blue trendlines form a broad descending channel that has contained price action since the January 2026 peak. Within this structure:
Wave A marked the first major correction from the all-time high region.
Wave B produced a sharp recovery but failed to establish a new sustainable uptrend.
Wave C completed with a significant decline into the March lows near 128,000.
Wave D is currently unfolding as a counter-trend rally within the larger corrective pattern.
Wave E, the final leg of the correction, is expected to begin once Wave D reaches completion.
The repeated rejection from the upper boundary of the channel indicates that sellers continue to dominate the higher time frame trend.
Current Market Position
Gold has recently bounced from the critical support zone around 148,500, which coincides with:
Prior Wave B support.
A major demand zone.
The base of the current recovery structure.
This support has triggered a short-term rebound, but the move appears corrective rather than impulsive.
Key Resistance Levels
Several Fibonacci retracement levels are acting as overhead resistance:
Level Price
0.618 Retracement 150,326
0.50 Retracement 152,307
Major Supply Zone 155,500 – 158,500
Wave D Target 160,700
The preferred scenario is for price to rally into the 152,000–160,700 resistance region, where Wave D is expected to terminate.
Bearish Wave E Projection
Upon completion of Wave D, the chart anticipates a strong decline forming Wave E.
Potential downside targets include:
143,914 (100% extension)
133,540 (1.618 extension)
127,128 (2.0 extension)
The projected blue path suggests that once the rally exhausts itself, a breakdown below 148,500 could accelerate selling pressure toward these lower targets.
Technical Confluence Supporting the Bearish View
Descending channel remains intact.
Multiple supply zones overhead.
Fibonacci retracement resistance clustered between 150,000 and 160,000.
Corrective ABCDE structure nearing completion.
Lack of impulsive bullish price action despite recent bounce.
Trading Outlook
The near-term outlook remains constructive while Gold holds above 148,500, allowing for a final recovery toward 152,000–160,700. However, the larger technical structure continues to favor a bearish resolution. A rejection from the projected Wave D zone would likely signal the beginning of Wave E, opening the door for a decline toward 133,500–127,000 over the coming weeks and months.
Key takeaway: The current rally appears to be a counter-trend move within a larger corrective formation. Unless Gold breaks decisively above 160,700 and the descending channel resistance, the probability remains elevated for a substantial Wave E decline toward the 127,000 region.
Trade closed: target reached
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.