Strategy stock is entering a particularly important period. Two events will attract investors’ attention over the coming weeks: the company’s quarterly earnings release on October 29, followed by MSCI’s decision regarding the treatment of Strategy in its indices, expected on November 11.
MSCI has just unveiled the conclusions of its consultation concerning companies considered “non-operating.” Strategy, due to the increasingly important role played by its Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet, is among the companies potentially affected by this new methodology.
1. Will Strategy Actually Be Excluded from MSCI Indices?
Before assessing the potential consequences for the stock, it is important to understand why this issue matters.
MSCI indices are followed by many institutional investors and serve, in particular, as benchmarks for index funds. When a company is removed from an index, funds seeking to replicate its composition may be forced to sell its shares. An exclusion can therefore trigger significant selling flows, particularly when the assets tracking the affected indices are substantial.
That said, Strategy’s exclusion has not yet been definitively confirmed. MSCI has decided to implement its new methodology targeting “non-operating” companies, but the identity of the companies actually removed will be determined as part of the November review, with publication expected on November 11.
Furthermore, the process includes certain protections for companies already included in the indices. In particular, the application of ineligibility criteria over several periods must be taken into account before a definitive exclusion.
October 29: Strategy’s Earnings
The first key event will therefore be the release of third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, after the close of Wall Street trading.
The market will be looking in particular at how Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are evolving, whether new purchases have been made, and how the company is financing the continuation of its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The valuation of the stock relative to the value of its digital assets will also be closely monitored.
These results could naturally alter the market’s perception of the company ahead of MSCI’s decision.
November 11: MSCI’s Decision
Wednesday, November 11, represents the second key date, and probably the more important one in terms of technical flows.
On that date, investors should learn the definitive composition of the indices following the implementation of the new methodology. If Strategy is excluded, the extent of the selling pressure will depend in particular on the indices affected and the amounts that funds replicating those indices will need to reallocate.
The two events must therefore be distinguished: October 29 directly concerns the company’s fundamentals and financial strategy, while November 11 will reveal the concrete consequences of MSCI’s decision.
2. Could the Stock’s Low Already Be Behind Us?
Despite the MSCI-related risk, Strategy’s chart analysis also provides some more constructive elements.
On both weekly and daily time frames, several technical signals suggest that the stock’s cyclical low may already have been reached.
This hypothesis is based in particular on the situation of Bitcoin. We have already discussed the significant probability that the market recorded its cyclical low on July 1, at $57,750. Strategy remains extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s price action, since it has become the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
On the long-term chart, the RSI and LMACD indicators are also showing bullish divergences reminiscent of those observed around the late-2022 low.
In the shorter term, the level to watch is much simpler: the 200-day moving average. Holding above it would provide an additional technical argument supporting the hypothesis that Strategy stock’s main low is already behind us.
In other words, the coming weeks will be decisive: the October 29 results will allow investors to reassess the company’s fundamentals, while November 11 will remove part of the uncertainty surrounding MSCI.
Below, I invite you to revisit my technical analysis of Strategy stock dated September 3.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
MSCI has just unveiled the conclusions of its consultation concerning companies considered “non-operating.” Strategy, due to the increasingly important role played by its Bitcoin holdings on its balance sheet, is among the companies potentially affected by this new methodology.
1. Will Strategy Actually Be Excluded from MSCI Indices?
Before assessing the potential consequences for the stock, it is important to understand why this issue matters.
MSCI indices are followed by many institutional investors and serve, in particular, as benchmarks for index funds. When a company is removed from an index, funds seeking to replicate its composition may be forced to sell its shares. An exclusion can therefore trigger significant selling flows, particularly when the assets tracking the affected indices are substantial.
That said, Strategy’s exclusion has not yet been definitively confirmed. MSCI has decided to implement its new methodology targeting “non-operating” companies, but the identity of the companies actually removed will be determined as part of the November review, with publication expected on November 11.
Furthermore, the process includes certain protections for companies already included in the indices. In particular, the application of ineligibility criteria over several periods must be taken into account before a definitive exclusion.
October 29: Strategy’s Earnings
The first key event will therefore be the release of third-quarter 2026 results on Thursday, October 29, after the close of Wall Street trading.
The market will be looking in particular at how Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are evolving, whether new purchases have been made, and how the company is financing the continuation of its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. The valuation of the stock relative to the value of its digital assets will also be closely monitored.
These results could naturally alter the market’s perception of the company ahead of MSCI’s decision.
November 11: MSCI’s Decision
Wednesday, November 11, represents the second key date, and probably the more important one in terms of technical flows.
On that date, investors should learn the definitive composition of the indices following the implementation of the new methodology. If Strategy is excluded, the extent of the selling pressure will depend in particular on the indices affected and the amounts that funds replicating those indices will need to reallocate.
The two events must therefore be distinguished: October 29 directly concerns the company’s fundamentals and financial strategy, while November 11 will reveal the concrete consequences of MSCI’s decision.
2. Could the Stock’s Low Already Be Behind Us?
Despite the MSCI-related risk, Strategy’s chart analysis also provides some more constructive elements.
On both weekly and daily time frames, several technical signals suggest that the stock’s cyclical low may already have been reached.
This hypothesis is based in particular on the situation of Bitcoin. We have already discussed the significant probability that the market recorded its cyclical low on July 1, at $57,750. Strategy remains extremely sensitive to Bitcoin’s price action, since it has become the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
On the long-term chart, the RSI and LMACD indicators are also showing bullish divergences reminiscent of those observed around the late-2022 low.
In the shorter term, the level to watch is much simpler: the 200-day moving average. Holding above it would provide an additional technical argument supporting the hypothesis that Strategy stock’s main low is already behind us.
In other words, the coming weeks will be decisive: the October 29 results will allow investors to reassess the company’s fundamentals, while November 11 will remove part of the uncertainty surrounding MSCI.
Below, I invite you to revisit my technical analysis of Strategy stock dated September 3.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
This content is written by Vincent Ganne for Swissquote.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.