Natural Gas is currently setting up a potential macro reversal structure on the 4-hour timeframe. We expect a short-term continuation down into our key demand zone to complete the bearish target, followed by a seasonal bullish push heading into autumn toward higher Fibonacci retracement levels.
Technical Breakdown
Short-Term Bearish Target (Order Block / Liquidity Sweep):
Price action is currently sloping downward toward our primary demand Order Block (~$2.20 – $2.45) (Sell: 42% / Buy: 58%).
We expect price to fulfill this lower bearish target to sweep local liquidity and mitigate the order block before establishing a solid market bottom.
Seasonal Autumn Reversal Path:
Once the lower Order Block is tested and buyers step in, we anticipate a strong structural shift to the upside as seasonal demand for Natural Gas picks up during the autumn months.
Macro Upside Targets:
Target 1 (Fib 0.382): The first major technical target sits around $4.85 - $5.00, aligning perfectly with the horizontal Fib 0.382 resistance line.
Target 2 (Fair Value Golden Pocket): The ultimate macro target lies within the major overhead supply zone between $5.80 and $6.80 (Fair Value / Golden Pocket).
Trading Plan & Roadmap
🔴 Phase 1 (Bearish Completion):
Allow price to drop into the lower Order Block zone ($2.20 – $2.45).
Do not chase shorts near the bottom; wait for the demand zone test.
🟢 Phase 2 (Bullish Confirmation & Reversal):
Look for bottoming structures (e.g., bullish engulfing candles, market structure shift, or RSI divergence) inside the green Order Block.
Entry: Reversal confirmation within $2.20 – $2.45.
Stop-Loss: Below the swing low of the Order Block zone (~$2.10).
Take Profit 1: ~$3.50 (Intermediate Swing High)
Take Profit 2: ~$4.85 (Fib 0.382 Resistance)
Take Profit 3: ~$5.80+ (Fair Value / Golden Pocket Zone)
Summary
Patience is key: Let the current downward leg play out into the lower Order Block. Once liquidity is cleared, we look for a strong autumn expansion toward Fib 0.382 (~$4.85) and ultimately the Golden Pocket ($5.80–$6.80).
Technical Breakdown
Short-Term Bearish Target (Order Block / Liquidity Sweep):
Price action is currently sloping downward toward our primary demand Order Block (~$2.20 – $2.45) (Sell: 42% / Buy: 58%).
We expect price to fulfill this lower bearish target to sweep local liquidity and mitigate the order block before establishing a solid market bottom.
Seasonal Autumn Reversal Path:
Once the lower Order Block is tested and buyers step in, we anticipate a strong structural shift to the upside as seasonal demand for Natural Gas picks up during the autumn months.
Macro Upside Targets:
Target 1 (Fib 0.382): The first major technical target sits around $4.85 - $5.00, aligning perfectly with the horizontal Fib 0.382 resistance line.
Target 2 (Fair Value Golden Pocket): The ultimate macro target lies within the major overhead supply zone between $5.80 and $6.80 (Fair Value / Golden Pocket).
Trading Plan & Roadmap
🔴 Phase 1 (Bearish Completion):
Allow price to drop into the lower Order Block zone ($2.20 – $2.45).
Do not chase shorts near the bottom; wait for the demand zone test.
🟢 Phase 2 (Bullish Confirmation & Reversal):
Look for bottoming structures (e.g., bullish engulfing candles, market structure shift, or RSI divergence) inside the green Order Block.
Entry: Reversal confirmation within $2.20 – $2.45.
Stop-Loss: Below the swing low of the Order Block zone (~$2.10).
Take Profit 1: ~$3.50 (Intermediate Swing High)
Take Profit 2: ~$4.85 (Fib 0.382 Resistance)
Take Profit 3: ~$5.80+ (Fair Value / Golden Pocket Zone)
Summary
Patience is key: Let the current downward leg play out into the lower Order Block. Once liquidity is cleared, we look for a strong autumn expansion toward Fib 0.382 (~$4.85) and ultimately the Golden Pocket ($5.80–$6.80).
CH Invest and Trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
CH Invest and Trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.