📊
⏰ Timeframe : 15 Min | 🏛 Exchange : NSE | 📅 Date : 29-Jun-2026
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💬 "Successful trading is about managing your risk,
not chasing your returns."
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🗝 KEY LEVELS AT A GLANCE
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🔴 Last Intraday Resistance ➤ 24,365
🔴 Opening Resistance ➤ 24,217
🟡 No Trade Zone (NTZ) ➤ 23,988 – 24,099
📍 Reference Price (Pre-Market) ➤ 24,052.80
🟢 Opening Support ➤ 23,849
🟢 Last Intraday Support Zone ➤ 23,630 – 23,672
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📌 CHART CONTEXT — READ THIS BEFORE YOU TRADE
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Today's chart carries additional weight for one very
important reason — 29 June 2026 is the LAST TRADING
DAY OF THE MONTH (Monthly Expiry Week). Monthly
F&O expiry weeks are known for elevated volatility,
sharp reversals, and aggressive premium decay in
options. This makes discipline even more critical
than on a regular trading day.
Let's break each level down clearly before the market
opens — because understanding the zone is what
separates a reactive trade from an impulsive one.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🟡 NO TRADE ZONE (NTZ) — 23,988 to 24,099
Pre-market price of 24,052.80 sits right in the MIDDLE
of today's No Trade Zone. This is the single most
important observation of the entire plan.
The NTZ is not a zone of weakness — it is a zone of
maximum confusion. Both bulls and bears have positions
here, and the market needs to break clearly in one
direction before a reliable trade can be taken.
Inside the NTZ : widest spreads, most false moves,
highest chance of stop losses being triggered randomly.
Rule : No entry until a 15-min candle closes OUTSIDE
the NTZ boundary — either above 24,099 or below 23,988.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🔴 OPENING RESISTANCE — 24,217
The first meaningful ceiling above the NTZ. Previous
sessions saw sellers defend this level. Any approach
to 24,217 without strong volume and momentum behind
it will invite selling pressure and potential reversal.
A clean close above 24,217 is the bullish checkpoint
that opens the door to the Last Intraday Resistance.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🔴 LAST INTRADAY RESISTANCE — 24,365
The highest red line on today's chart and the session's
extended bullish target. This level only comes into
play if 24,217 is convincingly broken. If Nifty reaches
24,365, it signals exceptional buying momentum for the
day. Book generously here — do not hold above it without
a clear, sustained close and high volume confirmation.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🟢 OPENING SUPPORT — 23,849
The first floor below the NTZ. A mild gap down or
intraday dip would test this level first. Buyers are
expected to defend 23,849 with some conviction —
watch for reversal candle confirmation before entering
any long from here. A decisive break below 23,849
signals the session is tipping toward the bears.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🟢 LAST INTRADAY SUPPORT ZONE — 23,630 to 23,672
A clearly defined demand ZONE — the green band visible
at the bottom of the chart. This represents strong
historical buyer interest and is the last structural
support before the chart loses its short-term bullish
integrity. On a deeper gap down, this zone is the
primary bounce target. Extreme caution if this breaks.
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🟢 SCENARIO 1 — GAP UP OPENING (100+ POINTS)
📍 Expected Open : Above 24,152
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📖 WHAT THIS GAP UP MEANS IN TODAY'S CONTEXT
A 100+ point gap up would open Nifty above 24,152 —
which clears the NTZ entirely and places price between
the NTZ upper band (24,099) and the Opening Resistance
(24,217). This is a structurally significant open
because bulls have already cleared the first hurdle
before the bell even rings.
However — and this is critical on an expiry week —
gap ups often attract aggressive selling from option
writers and short sellers who use resistance levels
as premium-selling opportunities. The euphoria of a
gap up can reverse violently near resistance.
Here is how to navigate it level by level :
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS BETWEEN 24,152 – 24,217
(Above NTZ, Below Opening Resistance)
⚠ NTZ is cleared but Opening Resistance is just above.
Do NOT rush into a buy — resistance is very close.
✅ BULLISH SETUP — Breakout Above 24,217
◉ Condition : 15-min candle CLOSES above 24,217 cleanly
◉ Confirm : Green body candle + expanding volume
◉ Entry : Above the breakout candle's high
◉ Target 1 : 24,280
◉ Target 2 : 24,365 ← Last Intraday Resistance
Book 60–70% of position at this level
◉ Stop Loss : 24,150 (below NTZ upper band)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | 24200 or 24250 strike
Bull Call Spread on high IV expiry day
✅ BEARISH SETUP — Rejection at 24,217
◉ Signal : Shooting star / bearish engulfing at
24,200–24,217 zone
◉ Entry : Below the rejection candle's low
◉ Target 1 : 24,099 (NTZ Upper Band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (pre-market reference)
◉ Target 3 : 23,988 (NTZ Lower Band)
◉ Stop Loss : 24,250 (above resistance)
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE for a directional scalp
⚠ Expiry day = high theta — take profits
fast, do not hold PE into afternoon
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS DIRECTLY AT OR ABOVE 24,217
(At Opening Resistance)
⚠ Market opens at resistance = extreme caution zone.
This is where most retail traders get caught buying.
✅ BULLISH — Only on Sustained Hold Above 24,217
◉ Condition : First candle holds above 24,217 and
second candle closes above 24,230
◉ Entry : Above 24,235
◉ Target : 24,300 → 24,365
◉ Stop Loss : 24,190
◉ Options : Avoid naked CE at open — IV will be
very inflated. Use Bull Call Spread only.
✅ FADE THE GAP — More Probable Setup Here
◉ Signal : Strong red candle below 24,217 on or
after the first 15-min candle
◉ Entry : Below rejection candle low
◉ Target 1 : 24,099 (NTZ upper band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (reference level)
◉ Stop Loss : 24,260
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE | Quick in-and-out scalp
On expiry day, PE premiums erode fast —
book profits at T1 without hesitation.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
💡 GAP UP TIP — EXPIRY WEEK SPECIAL
"On expiry week gap ups, option writers sell calls
aggressively near resistance. This creates artificial
ceilings that retail buyers run into headfirst.
The smart play : wait for resistance to BREAK and
HOLD before buying. Otherwise — fade the gap near
24,217 for a quick, clean scalp back to the NTZ."
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🟡 SCENARIO 2 — FLAT OPENING (Within ±50–100 Points)
📍 Expected Open : Between 23,952 – 24,152
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📖 THE FLAT OPEN — MOST STRUCTURED SETUP OF THE DAY
A flat opening today is the most educational scenario
because it places Nifty squarely inside the NTZ
(23,988–24,099) or right at its edges. With pre-market
at 24,052, a flat open means price is almost exactly
at the centre of the No Trade Zone.
This creates a perfectly symmetrical setup :
◉ The NTZ upper band (24,099) = ceiling
◉ The NTZ lower band (23,988) = floor
◉ The opening resistance (24,217) = next level above
◉ The opening support (23,849) = next level below
Think of it as a coin toss — but one where you don't
bet UNTIL the coin has already landed. That is the
NTZ philosophy. You do not predict which side wins.
You wait for confirmation, then follow with conviction.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
⛔ INSIDE NTZ 23,988 – 24,099 → ABSOLUTELY NO TRADE
◉ Set price alerts at 24,099 (upper) and 23,988 (lower)
◉ Monitor the first 2–3 candles for volume clues
◉ Rising volume approaching 24,099 = bullish pressure
◉ Increasing sell volume near 23,988 = bearish pressure
◉ Do NOT react to price inside the NTZ — only outside it
◉ Expiry day whipsaws are most dangerous inside the NTZ
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ BULLISH SETUP — Breakout Above 24,099 (NTZ Top)
◉ Condition : 15-min candle CLOSES above 24,099
◉ Confirm : Green candle body + higher than average
volume + candle closes near its high
◉ Entry : Above the breakout candle's high
◉ Target 1 : 24,150
◉ Target 2 : 24,217 ← Opening Resistance — book 50%
◉ Target 3 : 24,280 ← Only on strong momentum
◉ Extended : 24,365 ← Trail SL after T2 is hit
◉ Stop Loss : 24,060 (mid-point of NTZ)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | 24100 or 24150 strike CE
Bull Call Spread recommended for expiry
day to keep breakeven tight and risk low
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ BEARISH SETUP — Breakdown Below 23,988 (NTZ Bottom)
◉ Condition : 15-min candle CLOSES below 23,988
◉ Confirm : Red candle body + volume expansion
◉ Entry : Below the breakdown candle's low
◉ Target 1 : 23,920
◉ Target 2 : 23,849 ← Opening Support — book 50%
◉ Target 3 : 23,720 ← On sustained selling pressure
◉ Extended : 23,630–23,672 ← Last Intraday Support
◉ Stop Loss : 24,030 (back inside NTZ)
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE | 24000 or 23950 strike PE
⚠ Expiry day PE theta bleeds fast below
key support — take profits quickly at T1
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ OPENING SUPPORT BOUNCE — At 23,849
If Nifty dips to 23,849 during the session :
◉ Look for : Hammer / Morning Star / Bullish Engulfing
at 23,849 with clear volume spike
◉ Entry : Above the reversal confirmation candle high
◉ Target 1 : 23,988 (NTZ lower band reclaimed)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (reference level)
◉ Target 3 : 24,099 (NTZ upper band — exit remaining)
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,815 (zone has structurally failed)
◉ Options : Buy ATM or ITM CE for higher delta on bounce
ITM gives faster premium response on recovery
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
💡 FLAT OPEN TIP — EXPIRY WEEK SPECIAL
"On expiry weeks, a flat open with price inside the NTZ
is a gift. It means the market hasn't made up its mind
yet — which means you have time to prepare, set alerts,
and wait for the confirmed move. The traders who lose
on expiry days are those who rush. The ones who win
are those who wait for the NTZ to resolve. Be the
latter. Always."
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🔴 SCENARIO 3 — GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ POINTS)
📍 Expected Open : Below 23,952
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📖 HOW TO THINK ABOUT A GAP DOWN ON EXPIRY WEEK
A 100+ point gap down would open Nifty at 23,952 or
lower — which is below the NTZ entirely and approaching
the Opening Support at 23,849. On a regular trading
day, this is manageable. On an expiry week session,
this is amplified significantly.
Why? Because option sellers panic-cover short puts,
creating sharp short-covering bounces from support.
And simultaneously, retail traders panic-sell long
calls that are suddenly far OTM. This two-way pressure
creates violent intraday swings in both directions.
Your weapon against this chaos : a pre-built plan
and the patience to wait for the right moment.
Do not react to the gap. React to the level it lands on.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS BETWEEN 23,852 – 23,988
(Below NTZ, Above Opening Support)
◉ Price opens in a defined range between two key levels.
◉ 23,849 is just below — a natural bounce candidate.
✅ BOUNCE / LONG SETUP (23,849 Holds as Support)
◉ Let the gap settle — watch the first 15-min candle.
◉ If price stabilises above 23,849 with a bullish candle :
◉ Entry : Above the first bullish 15-min candle high
◉ Target 1 : 23,988 (NTZ Lower Band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (pre-market reference reclaimed)
◉ Target 3 : 24,099 (NTZ Upper Band — exit remaining)
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,815 (strict — no exceptions)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | 23900 or 23950 strike
⚠ On expiry, buy ITM CE for better delta
✅ BREAKDOWN SETUP (Gap Down Extends Below 23,849)
◉ If first candle closes below 23,849 with volume :
◉ Entry : Below 23,840
◉ Target 1 : 23,750
◉ Target 2 : 23,672 (Last Intraday Support top)
◉ Target 3 : 23,630 (Last Intraday Support bottom)
◉ Stop Loss : 23,890 (back above broken support)
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE | 23900 or 23850 strike
Book quickly — theta burns all day on expiry
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS DIRECTLY AT OPENING SUPPORT — 23,849
◉ Gap down lands precisely on the first support.
◉ High-probability institutional defence zone.
✅ BOUNCE / LONG SETUP (23,849 Holds)
◉ Golden Rule : DO NOT BUY the opening candle alone.
Two candle confirmation is essential here.
◉ Look for : Hammer / Doji / Engulfing + volume spike
at or just above 23,849
◉ Entry : Above the 2nd consecutive bullish candle
◉ Target 1 : 23,920
◉ Target 2 : 23,988 (NTZ lower band)
◉ Target 3 : 24,052 (reference level)
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,815 (strict discipline)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | ITM preferred for speed
✅ BREAKDOWN SETUP (23,849 Fails)
◉ Signal : Red candle closes below 23,830 with volume
◉ Entry : On next candle open below 23,825
◉ Target 1 : 23,700
◉ Target 2 : 23,672 (Last Intraday Support upper)
◉ Target 3 : 23,630 (Last Intraday Support lower)
◉ Stop Loss : 23,870 (back above broken support)
◉ Options : Buy PE | 23900 or 23850 strike
◉ ⚠ Reduce position size to 40–50% on this setup.
Below 23,849 on expiry week = panic-driven moves.
Fast profits, small size, zero averaging.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS AT LAST INTRADAY SUPPORT — 23,630–23,672
◉ Extreme gap down — a rare but serious scenario.
◉ This is the final structural demand zone on the chart.
◉ Expect aggressive short covering and institutional
buying at this level — bounces can be sharp and fast.
◉ DO NOT SHORT at this level at the open.
◉ DO NOT BUY without 15–20 minutes of stabilisation.
◉ Watch for : 3–4 small-range candles forming a base
near 23,630–23,672 (consolidation base)
◉ Entry Long : Above the consolidation high
◉ Target : 23,750 → 23,849
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,600 (strict structural failure)
◉ Options : Straddle near 23,650 ATM — for advanced
traders only due to extreme VIX spike ⚠
◉ Beginners : CASH IS KING. Sit out completely.
Protect your capital. Another day awaits.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
💡 GAP DOWN TIP — EXPIRY WEEK SPECIAL
"The most dangerous thing a trader can do on an expiry
week gap down is PANIC. The second most dangerous is
AVERAGE. A gap down to 23,849 or 23,630–23,672 is not
a disaster — it's a delivery to a pre-identified zone.
Your plan already mapped these levels last night.
Now let the zone confirm. Then and only then — act."
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🛡 RISK MANAGEMENT — EXPIRY WEEK OPTIONS RULEBOOK
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Expiry week is where fortunes are made AND destroyed.
Options premium decay accelerates dramatically in the
final week — especially on the expiry day itself.
These rules are not suggestions. They are survival rules.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
◉ THETA IS WORKING OVERTIME TODAY
On expiry day, time value evaporates every minute.
↳ ATM options can lose 30–50% of value even if Nifty
moves sideways for 2–3 hours. This is normal.
↳ Buy options only when you have a CLEAR directional
signal — not a "feeling" or a "hope."
↳ After 2:00 PM IST — avoid buying options unless
momentum is extremely strong and crystal clear.
◉ THE 1–2% CAPITAL RULE — NON-NEGOTIABLE
Risk no more than 1–2% of your total capital per trade.
↳ ₹1,00,000 account = max ₹1,000–₹2,000 at risk.
↳ Expiry day volatility punishes oversized positions
faster than any other day of the month.
◉ AVOID FAR OTM OPTIONS — ESPECIALLY ON EXPIRY DAY
Far OTM options on expiry day are lottery tickets —
not trading instruments.
↳ They can go from ₹20 to ₹0 in two 15-min candles.
↳ Stick to ATM or max one strike OTM for clean trades.
↳ The payoff may look tempting. The probability is not.
◉ NEVER TRADE THE OPENING 5 MINUTES — ESPECIALLY TODAY
9:15 – 9:20 AM IST on expiry day is pure chaos.
↳ Option premiums gap violently in both directions.
↳ Market makers widen spreads to maximum width.
↳ Opening moves reverse 60–70% of the time.
↳ Wait for the first full 15-min candle. Always.
◉ BOOK PARTIAL AT TARGET 1 — RELIGIOUSLY
Do not hold the entire position hoping for Target 2.
↳ Book 50–60% at Target 1 without exception.
↳ Move stop to breakeven on the remainder.
↳ On expiry day, the market can reverse in ONE candle.
↳ A partial profit booked is real money. Unrealised is not.
◉ SET A HARD DAILY LOSS LIMIT BEFORE 9:00 AM
↳ Recommended : 3% of total capital for the session.
↳ Hit that number → close everything → log off.
↳ No revenge trades. No "one more." Log. Off.
↳ Expiry day revenge trading is account destruction.
◉ NEVER AVERAGE DOWN ON A LOSING OPTIONS POSITION
↳ On expiry day, a losing option CAN go to zero.
↳ Averaging down = you are buying more of something
that is already telling you you are wrong.
↳ Cut the loss. Clear the head. Look for the next setup.
◉ USE SPREADS TO MANAGE PREMIUM COST TODAY
↳ Bull Call Spread / Bear Put Spread limits your risk
while keeping a meaningful reward profile.
↳ On high-IV expiry days, spreads have much better
risk-to-reward than naked long options.
↳ Lower breakeven = higher probability of profit.
◉ REDUCE POSITION SIZE ON ANY GAP DAY
↳ Gap days + expiry day = double volatility risk.
↳ Use 40–50% of your normal position size today.
↳ If the trade works — you still earn meaningfully.
↳ If not — smaller damage, capital fully intact.
◉ THE FINAL RULE — NO SETUP = ZERO TRADES
↳ If the NTZ never resolved and no signal formed :
there is no trade today. That IS the strategy.
↳ Not trading on a low-conviction expiry day =
the smartest financial decision you will make.
↳ Capital preservation today = MORE trades next week. 🙏
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📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
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📊 MARKET CONTEXT — 29 JUNE 2026
Nifty 50 enters the session at a pre-market reference
of 24,052.80 — sitting almost exactly at the centre
of the No Trade Zone (23,988–24,099). This is the most
neutral structural position price could be in at the
open — and on an expiry week session, this neutrality
demands extra patience before committing to any trade.
The week's price action (visible on the 15-min chart)
shows a sharp recovery from lows near 23,600+ earlier
in the week. The chart projects two clear paths forward
from the NTZ — each with well-defined levels and setups.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
📌 DIRECTIONAL BIAS FOR 29 JUNE 2026
◉ 🟢 BULLISH ABOVE 24,099 (NTZ Confirmed Breakout)
↳ Target 1 : 24,150
↳ Target 2 : 24,217 ← Opening Resistance — book 50%
↳ Target 3 : 24,365 ← Last Intraday Resistance
Trail SL aggressively above 24,217
◉ 🔴 BEARISH BELOW 23,988 (NTZ Confirmed Breakdown)
↳ Target 1 : 23,849 ← Opening Support — book 50%
↳ Target 2 : 23,720
↳ Target 3 : 23,630–23,672 ← Last Intraday Support
◉ ⛔ INSIDE 23,988 – 24,099
↳ No Trade | No Guessing | Observe Only | Set Alerts
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🎯 LEVELS CHEAT SHEET — SAVE THIS
🔴 Resistance : 24,099 | 24,217 | 24,365
🟡 NTZ : 23,988 – 24,099
🟢 Support : 23,849 | 23,672 | 23,630
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🧭 PRE-MARKET CHECKLIST — WATCH AT OPEN
◉ Which side does the first 15-min candle close on?
◉ Is volume expanding on the directional move?
◉ Gift Nifty / SGX Nifty direction confirmed?
◉ VIX : Rising = more volatility / caution
Falling = calmer expiry session likely
◉ FII / DII data from previous session direction?
◉ Any macro events — RBI, global central banks, news?
◉ Monthly expiry = expect higher than normal volatility
in the last 1–2 hours of the session (2–3:30 PM IST)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
⚡ FINAL THOUGHT
Today is an expiry week session — which means the rules
of discipline apply more strictly than on any other day.
The chart has done its job. Every level is identified.
Every scenario has a plan. Both directions are mapped
with entries, targets, and stops.
Your only job now is the one that separates consistent
traders from the rest : absolute patience until the
right moment arrives, followed by fearless execution
within your pre-defined risk parameters.
Markets do not reward those who trade the most.
They reward those who trade the BEST setups —
at the RIGHT levels, with the RIGHT size, at the
RIGHT time. Today, be that trader.
🧠 "In trading, knowing when NOT to trade
is as valuable as knowing when to trade."
Stay sharp. Stay disciplined. Protect the capital. 🎯
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⚠ DISCLAIMER
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This post is published solely for EDUCATIONAL &
INFORMATIONAL purposes only. All key levels, trade
setups, and scenarios discussed are derived exclusively
from technical chart analysis and personal price action
study. They are NOT guaranteed to play out as described.
Trading in Equity Markets, Futures & Options (F&O),
and all other market-linked instruments carries a
substantial risk of financial loss and may not be
suitable for all categories of investors. Past behaviour
of any price level or setup does not guarantee or imply
future results under any circumstances.
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst.
This content does NOT constitute :
◉ Financial or investment advice of any kind
◉ A buy / sell / hold recommendation or solicitation
◉ An investment product, scheme or advisory service
Please consult a SEBI-Registered Investment Advisor or
Research Analyst before making any trading or investment
decisions. All trades are taken entirely at your own risk
and responsibility. Your financial decisions are yours alone.
Trade safe. Stay disciplined. Protect your capital. 🙏
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⏰ Timeframe : 15 Min | 🏛 Exchange : NSE | 📅 Date : 29-Jun-2026
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💬 "Successful trading is about managing your risk,
not chasing your returns."
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🗝 KEY LEVELS AT A GLANCE
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🔴 Last Intraday Resistance ➤ 24,365
🔴 Opening Resistance ➤ 24,217
🟡 No Trade Zone (NTZ) ➤ 23,988 – 24,099
📍 Reference Price (Pre-Market) ➤ 24,052.80
🟢 Opening Support ➤ 23,849
🟢 Last Intraday Support Zone ➤ 23,630 – 23,672
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📌 CHART CONTEXT — READ THIS BEFORE YOU TRADE
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Today's chart carries additional weight for one very
important reason — 29 June 2026 is the LAST TRADING
DAY OF THE MONTH (Monthly Expiry Week). Monthly
F&O expiry weeks are known for elevated volatility,
sharp reversals, and aggressive premium decay in
options. This makes discipline even more critical
than on a regular trading day.
Let's break each level down clearly before the market
opens — because understanding the zone is what
separates a reactive trade from an impulsive one.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🟡 NO TRADE ZONE (NTZ) — 23,988 to 24,099
Pre-market price of 24,052.80 sits right in the MIDDLE
of today's No Trade Zone. This is the single most
important observation of the entire plan.
The NTZ is not a zone of weakness — it is a zone of
maximum confusion. Both bulls and bears have positions
here, and the market needs to break clearly in one
direction before a reliable trade can be taken.
Inside the NTZ : widest spreads, most false moves,
highest chance of stop losses being triggered randomly.
Rule : No entry until a 15-min candle closes OUTSIDE
the NTZ boundary — either above 24,099 or below 23,988.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🔴 OPENING RESISTANCE — 24,217
The first meaningful ceiling above the NTZ. Previous
sessions saw sellers defend this level. Any approach
to 24,217 without strong volume and momentum behind
it will invite selling pressure and potential reversal.
A clean close above 24,217 is the bullish checkpoint
that opens the door to the Last Intraday Resistance.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🔴 LAST INTRADAY RESISTANCE — 24,365
The highest red line on today's chart and the session's
extended bullish target. This level only comes into
play if 24,217 is convincingly broken. If Nifty reaches
24,365, it signals exceptional buying momentum for the
day. Book generously here — do not hold above it without
a clear, sustained close and high volume confirmation.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🟢 OPENING SUPPORT — 23,849
The first floor below the NTZ. A mild gap down or
intraday dip would test this level first. Buyers are
expected to defend 23,849 with some conviction —
watch for reversal candle confirmation before entering
any long from here. A decisive break below 23,849
signals the session is tipping toward the bears.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🟢 LAST INTRADAY SUPPORT ZONE — 23,630 to 23,672
A clearly defined demand ZONE — the green band visible
at the bottom of the chart. This represents strong
historical buyer interest and is the last structural
support before the chart loses its short-term bullish
integrity. On a deeper gap down, this zone is the
primary bounce target. Extreme caution if this breaks.
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🟢 SCENARIO 1 — GAP UP OPENING (100+ POINTS)
📍 Expected Open : Above 24,152
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📖 WHAT THIS GAP UP MEANS IN TODAY'S CONTEXT
A 100+ point gap up would open Nifty above 24,152 —
which clears the NTZ entirely and places price between
the NTZ upper band (24,099) and the Opening Resistance
(24,217). This is a structurally significant open
because bulls have already cleared the first hurdle
before the bell even rings.
However — and this is critical on an expiry week —
gap ups often attract aggressive selling from option
writers and short sellers who use resistance levels
as premium-selling opportunities. The euphoria of a
gap up can reverse violently near resistance.
Here is how to navigate it level by level :
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS BETWEEN 24,152 – 24,217
(Above NTZ, Below Opening Resistance)
⚠ NTZ is cleared but Opening Resistance is just above.
Do NOT rush into a buy — resistance is very close.
✅ BULLISH SETUP — Breakout Above 24,217
◉ Condition : 15-min candle CLOSES above 24,217 cleanly
◉ Confirm : Green body candle + expanding volume
◉ Entry : Above the breakout candle's high
◉ Target 1 : 24,280
◉ Target 2 : 24,365 ← Last Intraday Resistance
Book 60–70% of position at this level
◉ Stop Loss : 24,150 (below NTZ upper band)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | 24200 or 24250 strike
Bull Call Spread on high IV expiry day
✅ BEARISH SETUP — Rejection at 24,217
◉ Signal : Shooting star / bearish engulfing at
24,200–24,217 zone
◉ Entry : Below the rejection candle's low
◉ Target 1 : 24,099 (NTZ Upper Band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (pre-market reference)
◉ Target 3 : 23,988 (NTZ Lower Band)
◉ Stop Loss : 24,250 (above resistance)
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE for a directional scalp
⚠ Expiry day = high theta — take profits
fast, do not hold PE into afternoon
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS DIRECTLY AT OR ABOVE 24,217
(At Opening Resistance)
⚠ Market opens at resistance = extreme caution zone.
This is where most retail traders get caught buying.
✅ BULLISH — Only on Sustained Hold Above 24,217
◉ Condition : First candle holds above 24,217 and
second candle closes above 24,230
◉ Entry : Above 24,235
◉ Target : 24,300 → 24,365
◉ Stop Loss : 24,190
◉ Options : Avoid naked CE at open — IV will be
very inflated. Use Bull Call Spread only.
✅ FADE THE GAP — More Probable Setup Here
◉ Signal : Strong red candle below 24,217 on or
after the first 15-min candle
◉ Entry : Below rejection candle low
◉ Target 1 : 24,099 (NTZ upper band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (reference level)
◉ Stop Loss : 24,260
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE | Quick in-and-out scalp
On expiry day, PE premiums erode fast —
book profits at T1 without hesitation.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
💡 GAP UP TIP — EXPIRY WEEK SPECIAL
"On expiry week gap ups, option writers sell calls
aggressively near resistance. This creates artificial
ceilings that retail buyers run into headfirst.
The smart play : wait for resistance to BREAK and
HOLD before buying. Otherwise — fade the gap near
24,217 for a quick, clean scalp back to the NTZ."
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🟡 SCENARIO 2 — FLAT OPENING (Within ±50–100 Points)
📍 Expected Open : Between 23,952 – 24,152
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📖 THE FLAT OPEN — MOST STRUCTURED SETUP OF THE DAY
A flat opening today is the most educational scenario
because it places Nifty squarely inside the NTZ
(23,988–24,099) or right at its edges. With pre-market
at 24,052, a flat open means price is almost exactly
at the centre of the No Trade Zone.
This creates a perfectly symmetrical setup :
◉ The NTZ upper band (24,099) = ceiling
◉ The NTZ lower band (23,988) = floor
◉ The opening resistance (24,217) = next level above
◉ The opening support (23,849) = next level below
Think of it as a coin toss — but one where you don't
bet UNTIL the coin has already landed. That is the
NTZ philosophy. You do not predict which side wins.
You wait for confirmation, then follow with conviction.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
⛔ INSIDE NTZ 23,988 – 24,099 → ABSOLUTELY NO TRADE
◉ Set price alerts at 24,099 (upper) and 23,988 (lower)
◉ Monitor the first 2–3 candles for volume clues
◉ Rising volume approaching 24,099 = bullish pressure
◉ Increasing sell volume near 23,988 = bearish pressure
◉ Do NOT react to price inside the NTZ — only outside it
◉ Expiry day whipsaws are most dangerous inside the NTZ
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ BULLISH SETUP — Breakout Above 24,099 (NTZ Top)
◉ Condition : 15-min candle CLOSES above 24,099
◉ Confirm : Green candle body + higher than average
volume + candle closes near its high
◉ Entry : Above the breakout candle's high
◉ Target 1 : 24,150
◉ Target 2 : 24,217 ← Opening Resistance — book 50%
◉ Target 3 : 24,280 ← Only on strong momentum
◉ Extended : 24,365 ← Trail SL after T2 is hit
◉ Stop Loss : 24,060 (mid-point of NTZ)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | 24100 or 24150 strike CE
Bull Call Spread recommended for expiry
day to keep breakeven tight and risk low
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ BEARISH SETUP — Breakdown Below 23,988 (NTZ Bottom)
◉ Condition : 15-min candle CLOSES below 23,988
◉ Confirm : Red candle body + volume expansion
◉ Entry : Below the breakdown candle's low
◉ Target 1 : 23,920
◉ Target 2 : 23,849 ← Opening Support — book 50%
◉ Target 3 : 23,720 ← On sustained selling pressure
◉ Extended : 23,630–23,672 ← Last Intraday Support
◉ Stop Loss : 24,030 (back inside NTZ)
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE | 24000 or 23950 strike PE
⚠ Expiry day PE theta bleeds fast below
key support — take profits quickly at T1
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
✅ OPENING SUPPORT BOUNCE — At 23,849
If Nifty dips to 23,849 during the session :
◉ Look for : Hammer / Morning Star / Bullish Engulfing
at 23,849 with clear volume spike
◉ Entry : Above the reversal confirmation candle high
◉ Target 1 : 23,988 (NTZ lower band reclaimed)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (reference level)
◉ Target 3 : 24,099 (NTZ upper band — exit remaining)
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,815 (zone has structurally failed)
◉ Options : Buy ATM or ITM CE for higher delta on bounce
ITM gives faster premium response on recovery
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
💡 FLAT OPEN TIP — EXPIRY WEEK SPECIAL
"On expiry weeks, a flat open with price inside the NTZ
is a gift. It means the market hasn't made up its mind
yet — which means you have time to prepare, set alerts,
and wait for the confirmed move. The traders who lose
on expiry days are those who rush. The ones who win
are those who wait for the NTZ to resolve. Be the
latter. Always."
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🔴 SCENARIO 3 — GAP DOWN OPENING (100+ POINTS)
📍 Expected Open : Below 23,952
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📖 HOW TO THINK ABOUT A GAP DOWN ON EXPIRY WEEK
A 100+ point gap down would open Nifty at 23,952 or
lower — which is below the NTZ entirely and approaching
the Opening Support at 23,849. On a regular trading
day, this is manageable. On an expiry week session,
this is amplified significantly.
Why? Because option sellers panic-cover short puts,
creating sharp short-covering bounces from support.
And simultaneously, retail traders panic-sell long
calls that are suddenly far OTM. This two-way pressure
creates violent intraday swings in both directions.
Your weapon against this chaos : a pre-built plan
and the patience to wait for the right moment.
Do not react to the gap. React to the level it lands on.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS BETWEEN 23,852 – 23,988
(Below NTZ, Above Opening Support)
◉ Price opens in a defined range between two key levels.
◉ 23,849 is just below — a natural bounce candidate.
✅ BOUNCE / LONG SETUP (23,849 Holds as Support)
◉ Let the gap settle — watch the first 15-min candle.
◉ If price stabilises above 23,849 with a bullish candle :
◉ Entry : Above the first bullish 15-min candle high
◉ Target 1 : 23,988 (NTZ Lower Band)
◉ Target 2 : 24,052 (pre-market reference reclaimed)
◉ Target 3 : 24,099 (NTZ Upper Band — exit remaining)
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,815 (strict — no exceptions)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | 23900 or 23950 strike
⚠ On expiry, buy ITM CE for better delta
✅ BREAKDOWN SETUP (Gap Down Extends Below 23,849)
◉ If first candle closes below 23,849 with volume :
◉ Entry : Below 23,840
◉ Target 1 : 23,750
◉ Target 2 : 23,672 (Last Intraday Support top)
◉ Target 3 : 23,630 (Last Intraday Support bottom)
◉ Stop Loss : 23,890 (back above broken support)
◉ Options : Buy ATM PE | 23900 or 23850 strike
Book quickly — theta burns all day on expiry
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS DIRECTLY AT OPENING SUPPORT — 23,849
◉ Gap down lands precisely on the first support.
◉ High-probability institutional defence zone.
✅ BOUNCE / LONG SETUP (23,849 Holds)
◉ Golden Rule : DO NOT BUY the opening candle alone.
Two candle confirmation is essential here.
◉ Look for : Hammer / Doji / Engulfing + volume spike
at or just above 23,849
◉ Entry : Above the 2nd consecutive bullish candle
◉ Target 1 : 23,920
◉ Target 2 : 23,988 (NTZ lower band)
◉ Target 3 : 24,052 (reference level)
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,815 (strict discipline)
◉ Options : Buy ATM CE | ITM preferred for speed
✅ BREAKDOWN SETUP (23,849 Fails)
◉ Signal : Red candle closes below 23,830 with volume
◉ Entry : On next candle open below 23,825
◉ Target 1 : 23,700
◉ Target 2 : 23,672 (Last Intraday Support upper)
◉ Target 3 : 23,630 (Last Intraday Support lower)
◉ Stop Loss : 23,870 (back above broken support)
◉ Options : Buy PE | 23900 or 23850 strike
◉ ⚠ Reduce position size to 40–50% on this setup.
Below 23,849 on expiry week = panic-driven moves.
Fast profits, small size, zero averaging.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
IF NIFTY OPENS AT LAST INTRADAY SUPPORT — 23,630–23,672
◉ Extreme gap down — a rare but serious scenario.
◉ This is the final structural demand zone on the chart.
◉ Expect aggressive short covering and institutional
buying at this level — bounces can be sharp and fast.
◉ DO NOT SHORT at this level at the open.
◉ DO NOT BUY without 15–20 minutes of stabilisation.
◉ Watch for : 3–4 small-range candles forming a base
near 23,630–23,672 (consolidation base)
◉ Entry Long : Above the consolidation high
◉ Target : 23,750 → 23,849
◉ Stop Loss : Below 23,600 (strict structural failure)
◉ Options : Straddle near 23,650 ATM — for advanced
traders only due to extreme VIX spike ⚠
◉ Beginners : CASH IS KING. Sit out completely.
Protect your capital. Another day awaits.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
💡 GAP DOWN TIP — EXPIRY WEEK SPECIAL
"The most dangerous thing a trader can do on an expiry
week gap down is PANIC. The second most dangerous is
AVERAGE. A gap down to 23,849 or 23,630–23,672 is not
a disaster — it's a delivery to a pre-identified zone.
Your plan already mapped these levels last night.
Now let the zone confirm. Then and only then — act."
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🛡 RISK MANAGEMENT — EXPIRY WEEK OPTIONS RULEBOOK
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Expiry week is where fortunes are made AND destroyed.
Options premium decay accelerates dramatically in the
final week — especially on the expiry day itself.
These rules are not suggestions. They are survival rules.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
◉ THETA IS WORKING OVERTIME TODAY
On expiry day, time value evaporates every minute.
↳ ATM options can lose 30–50% of value even if Nifty
moves sideways for 2–3 hours. This is normal.
↳ Buy options only when you have a CLEAR directional
signal — not a "feeling" or a "hope."
↳ After 2:00 PM IST — avoid buying options unless
momentum is extremely strong and crystal clear.
◉ THE 1–2% CAPITAL RULE — NON-NEGOTIABLE
Risk no more than 1–2% of your total capital per trade.
↳ ₹1,00,000 account = max ₹1,000–₹2,000 at risk.
↳ Expiry day volatility punishes oversized positions
faster than any other day of the month.
◉ AVOID FAR OTM OPTIONS — ESPECIALLY ON EXPIRY DAY
Far OTM options on expiry day are lottery tickets —
not trading instruments.
↳ They can go from ₹20 to ₹0 in two 15-min candles.
↳ Stick to ATM or max one strike OTM for clean trades.
↳ The payoff may look tempting. The probability is not.
◉ NEVER TRADE THE OPENING 5 MINUTES — ESPECIALLY TODAY
9:15 – 9:20 AM IST on expiry day is pure chaos.
↳ Option premiums gap violently in both directions.
↳ Market makers widen spreads to maximum width.
↳ Opening moves reverse 60–70% of the time.
↳ Wait for the first full 15-min candle. Always.
◉ BOOK PARTIAL AT TARGET 1 — RELIGIOUSLY
Do not hold the entire position hoping for Target 2.
↳ Book 50–60% at Target 1 without exception.
↳ Move stop to breakeven on the remainder.
↳ On expiry day, the market can reverse in ONE candle.
↳ A partial profit booked is real money. Unrealised is not.
◉ SET A HARD DAILY LOSS LIMIT BEFORE 9:00 AM
↳ Recommended : 3% of total capital for the session.
↳ Hit that number → close everything → log off.
↳ No revenge trades. No "one more." Log. Off.
↳ Expiry day revenge trading is account destruction.
◉ NEVER AVERAGE DOWN ON A LOSING OPTIONS POSITION
↳ On expiry day, a losing option CAN go to zero.
↳ Averaging down = you are buying more of something
that is already telling you you are wrong.
↳ Cut the loss. Clear the head. Look for the next setup.
◉ USE SPREADS TO MANAGE PREMIUM COST TODAY
↳ Bull Call Spread / Bear Put Spread limits your risk
while keeping a meaningful reward profile.
↳ On high-IV expiry days, spreads have much better
risk-to-reward than naked long options.
↳ Lower breakeven = higher probability of profit.
◉ REDUCE POSITION SIZE ON ANY GAP DAY
↳ Gap days + expiry day = double volatility risk.
↳ Use 40–50% of your normal position size today.
↳ If the trade works — you still earn meaningfully.
↳ If not — smaller damage, capital fully intact.
◉ THE FINAL RULE — NO SETUP = ZERO TRADES
↳ If the NTZ never resolved and no signal formed :
there is no trade today. That IS the strategy.
↳ Not trading on a low-conviction expiry day =
the smartest financial decision you will make.
↳ Capital preservation today = MORE trades next week. 🙏
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📝 SUMMARY & CONCLUSION
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📊 MARKET CONTEXT — 29 JUNE 2026
Nifty 50 enters the session at a pre-market reference
of 24,052.80 — sitting almost exactly at the centre
of the No Trade Zone (23,988–24,099). This is the most
neutral structural position price could be in at the
open — and on an expiry week session, this neutrality
demands extra patience before committing to any trade.
The week's price action (visible on the 15-min chart)
shows a sharp recovery from lows near 23,600+ earlier
in the week. The chart projects two clear paths forward
from the NTZ — each with well-defined levels and setups.
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
📌 DIRECTIONAL BIAS FOR 29 JUNE 2026
◉ 🟢 BULLISH ABOVE 24,099 (NTZ Confirmed Breakout)
↳ Target 1 : 24,150
↳ Target 2 : 24,217 ← Opening Resistance — book 50%
↳ Target 3 : 24,365 ← Last Intraday Resistance
Trail SL aggressively above 24,217
◉ 🔴 BEARISH BELOW 23,988 (NTZ Confirmed Breakdown)
↳ Target 1 : 23,849 ← Opening Support — book 50%
↳ Target 2 : 23,720
↳ Target 3 : 23,630–23,672 ← Last Intraday Support
◉ ⛔ INSIDE 23,988 – 24,099
↳ No Trade | No Guessing | Observe Only | Set Alerts
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🎯 LEVELS CHEAT SHEET — SAVE THIS
🔴 Resistance : 24,099 | 24,217 | 24,365
🟡 NTZ : 23,988 – 24,099
🟢 Support : 23,849 | 23,672 | 23,630
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
🧭 PRE-MARKET CHECKLIST — WATCH AT OPEN
◉ Which side does the first 15-min candle close on?
◉ Is volume expanding on the directional move?
◉ Gift Nifty / SGX Nifty direction confirmed?
◉ VIX : Rising = more volatility / caution
Falling = calmer expiry session likely
◉ FII / DII data from previous session direction?
◉ Any macro events — RBI, global central banks, news?
◉ Monthly expiry = expect higher than normal volatility
in the last 1–2 hours of the session (2–3:30 PM IST)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────
⚡ FINAL THOUGHT
Today is an expiry week session — which means the rules
of discipline apply more strictly than on any other day.
The chart has done its job. Every level is identified.
Every scenario has a plan. Both directions are mapped
with entries, targets, and stops.
Your only job now is the one that separates consistent
traders from the rest : absolute patience until the
right moment arrives, followed by fearless execution
within your pre-defined risk parameters.
Markets do not reward those who trade the most.
They reward those who trade the BEST setups —
at the RIGHT levels, with the RIGHT size, at the
RIGHT time. Today, be that trader.
🧠 "In trading, knowing when NOT to trade
is as valuable as knowing when to trade."
Stay sharp. Stay disciplined. Protect the capital. 🎯
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⚠ DISCLAIMER
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This post is published solely for EDUCATIONAL &
INFORMATIONAL purposes only. All key levels, trade
setups, and scenarios discussed are derived exclusively
from technical chart analysis and personal price action
study. They are NOT guaranteed to play out as described.
Trading in Equity Markets, Futures & Options (F&O),
and all other market-linked instruments carries a
substantial risk of financial loss and may not be
suitable for all categories of investors. Past behaviour
of any price level or setup does not guarantee or imply
future results under any circumstances.
📢 I am NOT a SEBI Registered Research Analyst.
This content does NOT constitute :
◉ Financial or investment advice of any kind
◉ A buy / sell / hold recommendation or solicitation
◉ An investment product, scheme or advisory service
Please consult a SEBI-Registered Investment Advisor or
Research Analyst before making any trading or investment
decisions. All trades are taken entirely at your own risk
and responsibility. Your financial decisions are yours alone.
Trade safe. Stay disciplined. Protect your capital. 🙏
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.