The market structure has undergone a significant shift. We are now observing a corrective wave pattern (A-B-C) on the 15-minute timeframe. After the peak at 'B', the index has aggressively moved toward the 'C' wave termination zone. The price action suggests that bears are currently in control, but we are approaching deep value support zones where buyers typically emerge.
🔍 Recap: Previous Session vs. Actuals
Yesterday, the market followed our Gap Down/Weakness thesis perfectly.
Plan: Watch for a test of 24,000 and the intraday support at 23,943.
Actual: Nifty opened weak and faced constant rejection near the 24,000 psychological mark. It breached the 23,943 level, which then flipped into resistance (as seen on the current chart). The index closed near the lows at 23,820, confirming that the momentum is firmly with the sellers heading into today.
📈 Scenario 1: Gap Up Opening (Above 23,920)
A gap up of 100+ points would place Nifty back near the "Last Intraday Resistance" of 23,946.
Key Levels: * Resistance: 23,946 & 24,141
Support: 23,838 (Opening Resistance flipped)
Market Expectation: In a dominant bearish trend, a gap up is often viewed as a "Shorting Opportunity" unless the price stabilizes above 23,950 for at least 30 minutes. We expect initial volatility as overnight shorts cover their positions.
Actionable Approach: 1. Observe the Supply Zone: Watch the 23,946 level closely.
2. Execution: If Nifty hits 23,946 and forms a bearish reversal pattern (like a Shooting Star or Bearish Engulfing), look to go Short.
3. Bullish Alternative: Only if Nifty sustains above 24,000 can we look for a move toward 24,141.
Educational Point: A gap up into a resistance zone after a heavy sell-off is a "mean reversion" move. Traders should check if the RSI is exiting the oversold zone to confirm if the bounce has strength.
↔️ Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Within ±100 points)
Opening near the 23,800 - 23,840 zone keeps the index right at the "Opening Resistance" marked on your chart.
Key Levels: * Resistance: 23,838
Support: 23,710 (Opening Support)
Market Expectation: A flat start indicates a continuation of the current bearish momentum. Since we are in wave 'C', the index may attempt to find a floor between 23,710 and 23,600.
Actionable Approach: 1. Wait for Breakout/Breakdown: Watch the first 15-minute candle's high and low.
2. Execution: If Nifty breaks below 23,780, the next target is the 23,710 support zone. Conversely, if it crosses 23,838, it may crawl up to 23,946.
3. Educational Point: In flat openings, "Price Action Follow-through" is key. If the market fails to bounce from 23,800 quickly, it suggests that the "buy the dip" crowd is missing, and further downside is likely.
📉 Scenario 3: Gap Down Opening (Below 23,720)
A significant gap down would push Nifty toward the "C" wave completion zone near 23,600.
Key Levels: * Support: 23,603 (Last Opening Support) & 23,389 (Major Structural Base)
Resistance: 23,838
Market Expectation: We are entering "Oversold" territory. A gap down might lead to an initial "Panic Flush" followed by a sharp short-covering rally from the 23,600 - 23,650 zone.
Actionable Approach: 1. The Exhaustion Play: Do not short a large gap down immediately. You are late to the party.
2. Execution: Look for a "W" pattern or a long-wick hammer candle near 23,603. This is where "Last Opening Support" sits. A bounce from here can be played for a target back to 23,750.
3. Educational Point: A "Gap and Trap" occurs when the market gaps down so much that sellers are exhausted, and a small amount of buying triggers a massive short-covering rally. Watch the Volume at 23,600.
🛡️ Options Trading Risk Management
Position Sizing: Because we are at the end of a potential wave 'C', volatility will be high. Trade with 1/3rd of your capital to survive the swings.
Stop-Loss Discipline: Use "System SL" (in the terminal). Volatility can skip "Mental SLs" in seconds.
Avoid Overtrading: Pick ONE scenario. If it doesn't play out, stay in cash. Capital preservation is the first step to profitability.
Confirmation vs. Prediction: Don't buy because you "think" it's the bottom. Buy because you see a higher-high formation on the 5-minute chart.
Premium Decay: If Nifty goes sideways at the 23,800 mark, Theta will eat your premiums. Exit non-performing trades quickly.
✨ Summary & Conclusion
Directional Bias: Bearish with a watchful eye for a "Value Bounce" near 23,600.
Key Levels to Watch: 23,838 (Pivot) and 23,603 (Major Support).
Final Mindset: Trade the chart, not your opinion. The trend is currently down, so every rise is a potential sell until 24,000 is reclaimed. Stay disciplined! 🧠💼
📜 Disclaimer
“I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This is for educational purposes only.”
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.