On NVDA, the upper band has now caught up to open price, which is important because that usually creates a cleaner path for another leg higher if NVDA can continue closing strong into EOD. So for NVDA, I’m watching whether it can keep holding strength and continue expanding upward now that the band structure has caught up.
QQQ is different.
On QQQ, weekly open price is still floating around $710 while the upper band is currently around $704. So there is still about a $6 difference between open price and upper band that has not resolved yet.
That leaves me with 2 main scenarios:
Less likely scenario, yellow path:
QQQ continues pushing higher into EOW and works closer toward the 728-730 area. If that happens, it may give the upper band enough room/time to catch up closer to weekly open price.
If upper band catches up, then I could see a selloff bringing us around the 712-715 area early next week, followed by another push higher into a new ATH.
More likely scenario, blue path:
QQQ fails to bring upper band up to weekly open price.
If that happens, I think QQQ sells off back toward the upper band first, then potentially continues down toward fast/green.
The reason I lean toward this being more likely is because QQQ still has unresolved structure. Momentum is strong, but price is extended and the upper band has not fully caught up to weekly open price yet. So unless QQQ forces another strong leg higher quickly, I think it makes more sense for price to come back into the band structure instead.
Main thing I’m watching:
Does QQQ push high enough into EOW to let upper band catch up to the $710 weekly open?
If yes, I’d be watching for yellow path.
If no, I’d be watching for blue path.
QQQ is different.
On QQQ, weekly open price is still floating around $710 while the upper band is currently around $704. So there is still about a $6 difference between open price and upper band that has not resolved yet.
That leaves me with 2 main scenarios:
Less likely scenario, yellow path:
QQQ continues pushing higher into EOW and works closer toward the 728-730 area. If that happens, it may give the upper band enough room/time to catch up closer to weekly open price.
If upper band catches up, then I could see a selloff bringing us around the 712-715 area early next week, followed by another push higher into a new ATH.
More likely scenario, blue path:
QQQ fails to bring upper band up to weekly open price.
If that happens, I think QQQ sells off back toward the upper band first, then potentially continues down toward fast/green.
The reason I lean toward this being more likely is because QQQ still has unresolved structure. Momentum is strong, but price is extended and the upper band has not fully caught up to weekly open price yet. So unless QQQ forces another strong leg higher quickly, I think it makes more sense for price to come back into the band structure instead.
Main thing I’m watching:
Does QQQ push high enough into EOW to let upper band catch up to the $710 weekly open?
If yes, I’d be watching for yellow path.
If no, I’d be watching for blue path.
Trade closed: target reached
Plan on closing shorts this morning, hit our target a lot sooner then expected, should -> $700 and then we can start playing a new analysis, but I'll take overnight gains on this one, puts should be high since it happened so quickly
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.