Thesis: NSE:RELIANCE has moved out of its earlier 4h range and is trading below its heaviest overhead volume. This idea is conditional. If price rallies back into the 1271-1288 zone and is rejected there, a continuation lower becomes the working scenario. It is not a case for acting at the current price of about 1226.
Evidence one: on the 4h chart, price spent several months rotating inside a broad range. In September it broke lower and has since made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The recent candles are mostly bearish, with only brief pauses.
Evidence two: the 1271-1288 zone is the largest volume-profile shelf in the calculated window, holding about 8.4% of the profile. It also lines up with visible chart extremes. Areas of heavy past trading often act as resistance on a retest after a breakdown. The profile thins out noticeably below the current price.
Evidence three: the average 4h move (ATR 14) is about 13, or roughly 1.07% per candle. That gives a sense of scale. A return to the zone would take several candles of recovery, not a single spike.
Confirmation required: price first needs to trade back up into 1271-1288. There, the 4h candles should show clear rejection, such as long upper wicks or closes back below the zone, before the scenario is considered active. If price drifts lower without ever retesting the zone, this setup simply does not trigger.
If the rejection plays out, three reference levels follow:
- Target 1 at 1215 is anchored to the extreme of the 260-bar window. It sits about 4.3 ATR, or 4.4%, from the zone.
- Target 2 at 1180 is based on the 161.8% move projection, about 6.9 ATR (7.2%) from the zone.
- Target 3 at 1124 is based on the 261.8% projection, about 11.2 ATR (11.6%) from the zone.
Invalidation: a move to 1290, just beyond the far edge of the zone, ends this thesis. Acceptance above the heaviest volume shelf would suggest buyers have absorbed the supply there, and the bearish read no longer holds.
Risk management: measured from the zone to the 1290 invalidation, the first target offers roughly a 1 to 3.0 risk-to-reward ratio. Position size should be based on the distance to invalidation, not on the targets. Scaling out at each level can reduce exposure as the move develops.
The session status and holiday calendar are not confirmed here, so gaps between sessions remain a risk. None of these levels guarantees a reaction. This is a scenario to monitor, not a certainty.
Evidence one: on the 4h chart, price spent several months rotating inside a broad range. In September it broke lower and has since made a sequence of lower highs and lower lows. The recent candles are mostly bearish, with only brief pauses.
Evidence two: the 1271-1288 zone is the largest volume-profile shelf in the calculated window, holding about 8.4% of the profile. It also lines up with visible chart extremes. Areas of heavy past trading often act as resistance on a retest after a breakdown. The profile thins out noticeably below the current price.
Evidence three: the average 4h move (ATR 14) is about 13, or roughly 1.07% per candle. That gives a sense of scale. A return to the zone would take several candles of recovery, not a single spike.
Confirmation required: price first needs to trade back up into 1271-1288. There, the 4h candles should show clear rejection, such as long upper wicks or closes back below the zone, before the scenario is considered active. If price drifts lower without ever retesting the zone, this setup simply does not trigger.
If the rejection plays out, three reference levels follow:
- Target 1 at 1215 is anchored to the extreme of the 260-bar window. It sits about 4.3 ATR, or 4.4%, from the zone.
- Target 2 at 1180 is based on the 161.8% move projection, about 6.9 ATR (7.2%) from the zone.
- Target 3 at 1124 is based on the 261.8% projection, about 11.2 ATR (11.6%) from the zone.
Invalidation: a move to 1290, just beyond the far edge of the zone, ends this thesis. Acceptance above the heaviest volume shelf would suggest buyers have absorbed the supply there, and the bearish read no longer holds.
Risk management: measured from the zone to the 1290 invalidation, the first target offers roughly a 1 to 3.0 risk-to-reward ratio. Position size should be based on the distance to invalidation, not on the targets. Scaling out at each level can reduce exposure as the move develops.
The session status and holiday calendar are not confirmed here, so gaps between sessions remain a risk. None of these levels guarantees a reaction. This is a scenario to monitor, not a certainty.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
SIGNAL INDICATOR
NO REDESIGNING
✅Buy&Sell according to 7 strategies
✅Technical analysis according to 30+ parameters
✅WinRate of signals up to 75%
✅RR 1k3, no deep drawdowns!
Free test drive using my link:
👉midas-club.com/go/tla
NO REDESIGNING
✅Buy&Sell according to 7 strategies
✅Technical analysis according to 30+ parameters
✅WinRate of signals up to 75%
✅RR 1k3, no deep drawdowns!
Free test drive using my link:
👉midas-club.com/go/tla
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.