NSE:RELIANCE: Rejection at 1266-1295 Defines Downside Risk

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Thesis: If NSE:RELIANCE retests the 1266-1295 zone and shows rejection, the chart structure supports a conditional downside scenario towards 1153, followed by 1082 and 969.

Evidence: The 1266-1295 area is the largest volume-profile shelf, covering 16% of the profile and aligning with chart extremes. The current price is 1178, below this zone, while ATR(14) is 23 on the 4-hour chart, showing that price remains well away from the area where the scenario is defined. The projected objectives are 5.0 ATR to 1153, 8.0 ATR to 1082, and 13.0 ATR to 969.

Confirmation required before acting: Wait for price to return to 1266-1295 and confirm rejection through the visible 4-hour structure. No action is supported while price remains away from the zone or before rejection is confirmed.

Invalidation: A move beyond 1304 ends the downside thesis, as 1304 is beyond the further boundary of the zone.

Risk management: Define risk at 1304 and size any exposure so the loss remains within a predetermined limit. Treat 1153 as the first objective, supported by the 260-bar window extreme; 1082 as the second objective, supported by the 161.8% move projection; and 969 as the third objective, supported by the 261.8% move projection. The stated risk to the first objective is 1:3.0.

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