Technical Context
Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) is moving inside a large "Megaphone" shape (a Broadening Wedge) on the weekly chart. This means the price swings are getting bigger and more volatile. After falling from its high point of 1,611, the stock has landed exactly at a major "floor" near 1,304.
This 1,304 level is very important because three things are happening at once:
Bullish Scenario
Bearish Scenario
Summary
RELIANCE is at a "make or break" moment. The 1,300 level is the most important price to watch right now. Because of the Hidden Bullish Divergence and the 200-WMA, there is a high chance of a bounce. However, if the price falls below 1,300, it could lead to much lower prices.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own decisions before making any trading decisions.
Reliance Industries Limited (RELIANCE) is moving inside a large "Megaphone" shape (a Broadening Wedge) on the weekly chart. This means the price swings are getting bigger and more volatile. After falling from its high point of 1,611, the stock has landed exactly at a major "floor" near 1,304.
This 1,304 level is very important because three things are happening at once:
- 200-WMA: The price is touching a long-term moving average that big banks and funds usually protect.
- 0.618 Fibonacci: It is at a "Golden Ratio" support level, which is a common place for a bounce.
- Hidden Bullish Divergence: Even though the RSI (momentum) looks low at 37, the price is staying higher than its previous low. This often means the uptrend is still alive.
Bullish Scenario
- Thesis: The buyers will defend the 1,304 floor, leading to a strong bounce back toward the top of the megaphone.
- Trigger: A strong weekly close above 1,350.
- Targets: First target is 1,450, with a long-term goal of 1,650 or higher.
- Invalidation: If the price closes the week below 1,290, this "buy the dip" idea is cancelled.
Bearish Scenario
- Thesis: If the floor at 1,304 breaks, the stock will fall quickly toward the bottom green line.
- Trigger: A weekly close below 1,290.
- Targets: First drop to 1,215 (green support line), and then down to 1,114.
- Invalidation: If the price quickly climbs back above 1,400.
Summary
RELIANCE is at a "make or break" moment. The 1,300 level is the most important price to watch right now. Because of the Hidden Bullish Divergence and the 200-WMA, there is a high chance of a bounce. However, if the price falls below 1,300, it could lead to much lower prices.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own decisions before making any trading decisions.
WaveXplorer | Elliott Wave insights
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
WaveXplorer | Elliott Wave insights
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
📊 X profile: @veerappa89
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.