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SNPS crashed on September 10, 2025 but I'm not interested in buying it yet.
- Fundamentally it had a premium valuation which has gotten little compressed but I think it deserves to be punished more.
- Monthly chart looks ugly andSNPS is likely in a Wyckoff Stage #4
- Fundamentally,
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
EPS% | 4.54% | 11.92% | 19.00% | 24.59%
EPS is fluctuating from 4% to 24% in 2028. Considering average eps % to be 15%. Fair forward p/e would be 15 but I am willing to pay 20 forward p/e as the base case.
Fair value:
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
Price | $274 | $307 | $365 | $455
Bull Case ( forward p/e of 30 )
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
Price | $411 | $460 | $548 | $682
Bear Case ( forward p/e of 15 )
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
Price | $205 | $230 | $274 | $341
SNPS crashed on September 10, 2025 but I'm not interested in buying it yet.- Fundamentally it had a premium valuation which has gotten little compressed but I think it deserves to be punished more.
- Monthly chart looks ugly and
SNPS is likely in a Wyckoff Stage #4 - Fundamentally,
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
EPS% | 4.54% | 11.92% | 19.00% | 24.59%
EPS is fluctuating from 4% to 24% in 2028. Considering average eps % to be 15%. Fair forward p/e would be 15 but I am willing to pay 20 forward p/e as the base case.
Fair value:
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
Price | $274 | $307 | $365 | $455
Bull Case ( forward p/e of 30 )
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
Price | $411 | $460 | $548 | $682
Bear Case ( forward p/e of 15 )
year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028
EPS | 13.72 | 15.35 | 18.27 | 22.76
Price | $205 | $230 | $274 | $341
Note
Technically, there's two main support which are intermediate Support # 1 : ~ $393
Support # 2 : ~ $344
These support could provide technical relief rally but I am only thinking to buy around $270 which aligns with my fair value for 2025 at least for this year
Note
- If SNPS goes down to the green line in the chart, that's my level for accumulation. That aligns with my fundamental analysis and technically that is close to 100 SMA on monthly chartNote
If it doesn't hit my accumulation zone then I don't plan to invest here as there are better opportunity with better risk/reward
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.