SPY's Break Was Real - Ran To 759.
The 748 break held and ran. Monday the caution was that SPY broke 748 on a bottom-quartile surface - a divergence that had trapped breaks all month. This time it did not trap: price held above 748, the conviction surface rotated all the way up to maximum, and SPY ran through 753 and the 755.66 highs to 759.55. The divergent break resolved bullish and the surface caught up to price. Credit where due, the break was the real thing. The flip side is that it is now extended into new highs with euphoria showing, so this is not the spot to chase. Neutral.
Resistance: 759.67 - the high
Key resistance: 765.71 - next shelf up
Current price: 759.55
Support: 755.66 - the prior high, now support
Key support: 753.22 - first support below
Structural floor: 748.00 - the broken ceiling
Two paths from here:
It holds the breakout and extends. With conviction now maxed and the range resolved up, holding above 755.66 keeps the path open toward 765. A confirmed breakout that holds its breakout level is a trend, not a trap.
It reverts after the euphoric run. Maxed conviction and euphoria at new highs is stretched, and the run from 748 to 759 was fast. A loss of 755.66 and then 753 would signal the breakout needs to backfill. Extended moves mean-revert.
SPY's 748 break was the real thing - it held, the surface confirmed, and it ran to new highs. The honest note is that we stayed Neutral through a break that worked, and it is now extended. On any pullback, 755.66 holding as support is the level that matters.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
The 748 break held and ran. Monday the caution was that SPY broke 748 on a bottom-quartile surface - a divergence that had trapped breaks all month. This time it did not trap: price held above 748, the conviction surface rotated all the way up to maximum, and SPY ran through 753 and the 755.66 highs to 759.55. The divergent break resolved bullish and the surface caught up to price. Credit where due, the break was the real thing. The flip side is that it is now extended into new highs with euphoria showing, so this is not the spot to chase. Neutral.
Resistance: 759.67 - the high
Key resistance: 765.71 - next shelf up
Current price: 759.55
Support: 755.66 - the prior high, now support
Key support: 753.22 - first support below
Structural floor: 748.00 - the broken ceiling
Two paths from here:
It holds the breakout and extends. With conviction now maxed and the range resolved up, holding above 755.66 keeps the path open toward 765. A confirmed breakout that holds its breakout level is a trend, not a trap.
It reverts after the euphoric run. Maxed conviction and euphoria at new highs is stretched, and the run from 748 to 759 was fast. A loss of 755.66 and then 753 would signal the breakout needs to backfill. Extended moves mean-revert.
SPY's 748 break was the real thing - it held, the surface confirmed, and it ran to new highs. The honest note is that we stayed Neutral through a break that worked, and it is now extended. On any pullback, 755.66 holding as support is the level that matters.
Built with SYNTHESIS v3.3 | SOM / ACE / IMP / SYNTHESIS
Study, not financial advice.
Note
Morning Update: The trend ran - 772 and new highs.Called it - hold 755.66 and the path opens to 765. It held and went further, running to 772.86, up another 1.80%, straight through 765. The 748 breakout is a full trend now. Very extended here after the vertical run, but the trend path won cleanly and price has not looked back.
Study, not financial advice.
Mapping macro structure, custom indicators, and radial geometry.
SOM / ACE / IMP are free. SYNTHESIS is the operator layer - message me on TradingView for access.
Study, not financial advice.
SOM / ACE / IMP are free. SYNTHESIS is the operator layer - message me on TradingView for access.
Study, not financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Mapping macro structure, custom indicators, and radial geometry.
SOM / ACE / IMP are free. SYNTHESIS is the operator layer - message me on TradingView for access.
Study, not financial advice.
SOM / ACE / IMP are free. SYNTHESIS is the operator layer - message me on TradingView for access.
Study, not financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.