USDCHF maintains an uptrend on the H4 timeframe, with the price continuing to trade above both the EMA34 and EMA89 while hugging the upper boundary of the long-term rising channel. Following a recent strong rally, the price is approaching the channel's resistance zone; therefore, a pullback to 0.8115 is viewed as a healthy development before the uptrend potentially resumes.
Fundamentally, the USD remains supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Meanwhile, the SNB maintains an accommodative stance, leaving the CHF with little momentum for a strong recovery. This monetary policy divergence continues to favor USDCHF in the short term.
The preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback to the 0.8115 area, which aligns with the EMA34 and the nearest support zone. If a bullish confirmation signal emerges there, USDCHF could advance toward 0.8184, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel.
Invalidation scenario: If the price closes below 0.8115 on the H4 chart and breaks below the EMA34, the bullish structure would weaken, increasing the risk of a correction toward the EMA89.
Fundamentally, the USD remains supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for a longer period. Meanwhile, the SNB maintains an accommodative stance, leaving the CHF with little momentum for a strong recovery. This monetary policy divergence continues to favor USDCHF in the short term.
The preferred scenario is to wait for a pullback to the 0.8115 area, which aligns with the EMA34 and the nearest support zone. If a bullish confirmation signal emerges there, USDCHF could advance toward 0.8184, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel.
Invalidation scenario: If the price closes below 0.8115 on the H4 chart and breaks below the EMA34, the bullish structure would weaken, increasing the risk of a correction toward the EMA89.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.