USD/CHF broke its four-day winning streak, trading around 0.7890 during the Asian session.
This decline was triggered by a broad-based weakening of the US dollar as risk-aversion sentiment eased following US diplomatic and military efforts to secure global energy trade routes.
✅ Geopolitical Factors: Strait of Hormuz Coalition & Kharg Island Risk
The market is balancing hopes for peace and the threat of renewed escalation:
- De-escalation Hopes: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicts the conflict with Iran will end within weeks. Plans to form an international coalition (including the potential involvement of the UK, France, China, and Japan) to escort tankers have provided positive sentiment for the recovery of oil supplies.
- Kharg Island Tensions: Despite optimism, reports of a US attack on Kharg Island (the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports) over the weekend are raising concerns.
- EU Response: The EU foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels today will focus on maritime military support in the region.
✅ Monetary Focus: Fed Decision & SNB Policy
Central bank dynamics will be key to determining the medium-term direction:
- The Fed (Wednesday): The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Market focus will be on the "Dot Plot" and policy guidance regarding energy inflation risks.
- SNB Intervention: Although the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits as a safe-haven asset during times of heightened tensions, its gains may be restrained. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently expressed greater readiness to intervene in the forex market to prevent excessive CHF appreciation that could harm Swiss exports.
✅ USD/CHF Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the pair is testing psychological support levels after last week's rally:
- Nearest Support (0.7850): A decline below this level would confirm a short-term trend reversal and open the way towards the 0.7780 area.
- Key Resistance (0.7950): Price needs to break back above this level to restore its bullish bias towards 0.8000.
- Sentiment: As long as uncertainty in the Middle East persists, the CHF tends to outperform the USD due to its status as a traditional safe-haven in Europe.
This decline was triggered by a broad-based weakening of the US dollar as risk-aversion sentiment eased following US diplomatic and military efforts to secure global energy trade routes.
✅ Geopolitical Factors: Strait of Hormuz Coalition & Kharg Island Risk
The market is balancing hopes for peace and the threat of renewed escalation:
- De-escalation Hopes: US Energy Secretary Chris Wright predicts the conflict with Iran will end within weeks. Plans to form an international coalition (including the potential involvement of the UK, France, China, and Japan) to escort tankers have provided positive sentiment for the recovery of oil supplies.
- Kharg Island Tensions: Despite optimism, reports of a US attack on Kharg Island (the hub for 90% of Iran's oil exports) over the weekend are raising concerns.
- EU Response: The EU foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels today will focus on maritime military support in the region.
✅ Monetary Focus: Fed Decision & SNB Policy
Central bank dynamics will be key to determining the medium-term direction:
- The Fed (Wednesday): The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Market focus will be on the "Dot Plot" and policy guidance regarding energy inflation risks.
- SNB Intervention: Although the Swiss Franc (CHF) benefits as a safe-haven asset during times of heightened tensions, its gains may be restrained. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) recently expressed greater readiness to intervene in the forex market to prevent excessive CHF appreciation that could harm Swiss exports.
✅ USD/CHF Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, the pair is testing psychological support levels after last week's rally:
- Nearest Support (0.7850): A decline below this level would confirm a short-term trend reversal and open the way towards the 0.7780 area.
- Key Resistance (0.7950): Price needs to break back above this level to restore its bullish bias towards 0.8000.
- Sentiment: As long as uncertainty in the Middle East persists, the CHF tends to outperform the USD due to its status as a traditional safe-haven in Europe.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.