1. The quantitative analysis
- 3 legs appear in the recent bull phase
- each leg constitutes a rise and then a relatively smaller fall
- the ratio of fall to rise for the first 2 legs is between 68%-70%
Now we are expecting a similar fall in USDJPY - that will make the ratio of fall to rise near 70%
For this, the prices might test the levels near 157.50
2. Technical Analysis
The prices have breached the upper zone of the ascending channel formation - seems like a fakeout
Since May 2026 - the bullish candles look weak, no strength
Prices are forming a bearish divergence with the RSI
The May 2026 VWAP is still untested, and the fair values are somewhere around 160.50
3. Fundamental Analysis
- Typically, whenever JPY weakens extremely against USD, Japanese authorities (BoJ and MoF) intervene in the FX markets to support their currency
- USDJPY is trending at all-time highs of 163.60; I think it's not normal
- 3 legs appear in the recent bull phase
- each leg constitutes a rise and then a relatively smaller fall
- the ratio of fall to rise for the first 2 legs is between 68%-70%
Now we are expecting a similar fall in USDJPY - that will make the ratio of fall to rise near 70%
For this, the prices might test the levels near 157.50
2. Technical Analysis
The prices have breached the upper zone of the ascending channel formation - seems like a fakeout
Since May 2026 - the bullish candles look weak, no strength
Prices are forming a bearish divergence with the RSI
The May 2026 VWAP is still untested, and the fair values are somewhere around 160.50
3. Fundamental Analysis
- Typically, whenever JPY weakens extremely against USD, Japanese authorities (BoJ and MoF) intervene in the FX markets to support their currency
- USDJPY is trending at all-time highs of 163.60; I think it's not normal
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.