USD/JPY traded within a limited range during today's Asian session, failing to break through the 159.00 level but remaining above the critical 158.00 level.
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✅ Key Catalysts: Lebanon Tensions & the Strait of Hormuz
Today's market sentiment was dominated by the fragility of the peace deal:
- ⚡Ceasefire Threatened: Although the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon (which the White House confirmed were not included in the deal) angered Tehran.
- ⚡Hormuz Blockade Resumes: In response to the attack in Lebanon, Iran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz. This has fueled uncertainty in global energy supplies and supported the US Dollar (USD) as the primary liquidity choice over the Yen (JPY).
- ⚡Threat of Intervention: Japanese authorities, through Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura, recently warned of "firm action" if the JPY continues to weaken speculatively above the 160.00 level. This has limited the courage of USD/JPY buyers to push prices higher.
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✅ Technical Indicators: Fragile Constructive Bias
Technically, USD/JPY is in a "wait and see" position with a slightly upward-leaning structure:
- ⚡Support (~158.22): This level serves as a crucial technical floor. As long as the price holds above the 158.25-158.20 zone, the short-term upward bias remains valid.
- ⚡RSI (42): Located in neutral territory, indicating that the price has room to rise further without the risk of imminent overbought.
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✅ Today's Main Focus: US PCE Data
Tonight is a defining moment for the US Dollar's direction:
- ⚡PCE Price Index (7:30 PM WIB): As the Fed's favorite inflation data, a higher-than-expected figure would reinforce the "Higher for Longer" narrative, which could push USD/JPY beyond 159.00.
- ⚡Fed sentiment: If PCE shows cooling inflation, USD/JPY is at risk of breaking the 200 EMA to the downside.
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✅ Key Catalysts: Lebanon Tensions & the Strait of Hormuz
Today's market sentiment was dominated by the fragility of the peace deal:
- ⚡Ceasefire Threatened: Although the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon (which the White House confirmed were not included in the deal) angered Tehran.
- ⚡Hormuz Blockade Resumes: In response to the attack in Lebanon, Iran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz. This has fueled uncertainty in global energy supplies and supported the US Dollar (USD) as the primary liquidity choice over the Yen (JPY).
- ⚡Threat of Intervention: Japanese authorities, through Vice Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura, recently warned of "firm action" if the JPY continues to weaken speculatively above the 160.00 level. This has limited the courage of USD/JPY buyers to push prices higher.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Technical Indicators: Fragile Constructive Bias
Technically, USD/JPY is in a "wait and see" position with a slightly upward-leaning structure:
- ⚡Support (~158.22): This level serves as a crucial technical floor. As long as the price holds above the 158.25-158.20 zone, the short-term upward bias remains valid.
- ⚡RSI (42): Located in neutral territory, indicating that the price has room to rise further without the risk of imminent overbought.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Today's Main Focus: US PCE Data
Tonight is a defining moment for the US Dollar's direction:
- ⚡PCE Price Index (7:30 PM WIB): As the Fed's favorite inflation data, a higher-than-expected figure would reinforce the "Higher for Longer" narrative, which could push USD/JPY beyond 159.00.
- ⚡Fed sentiment: If PCE shows cooling inflation, USD/JPY is at risk of breaking the 200 EMA to the downside.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.