USD/JPY - Top Down Analysis

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🟣 Monthly Chart (Macro Structure)

Context: Price has been ranging within a broad band between 162 resistance and 138–140 support.

Current Zone: Sitting mid-range near 147–148, right under a heavy monthly supply block (150–152).

Bias: Until 150+ breaks clean, upside is capped. Structure suggests more downside liquidity hunts.

🔵 Weekly Chart (Swing Bias)

Supply Zone: Weekly supply at 150–152 rejected strongly.

Trendline: Rising liquidity channel (higher lows), but capped at supply.

Order Flow: Repeated rejections indicate sellers still control the higher timeframe.

Bias: Bearish toward the liquidity resting around 145.

Key Levels:

Resistance: 150–152

Support: 144–145

🟢 Daily Chart (Refined Structure)

Supply Reaction: Strong rejection from the 61.8% retrace within the weekly supply zone.

SSL (Sell-Side Liquidity): Resting neatly at 145 handle, aligning with trendline support.

Bias: Lower-high structure under supply → daily order flow favors continuation down.

⏱ 1H Chart (Execution Layer)

Supply Zone: 147.7–147.9 (confluent with 71% fib retrace & weak resistance).

Reaction: Intraday rejection already showing weakness.

Next Path: Break of weak support at 147.0 would confirm continuation toward 146.8 → 145.5.

Intraday Bias: Sell rallies back into 147.7–147.9.

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