The latest IEA monthly Oil Market Report signals that, although the agency has nudged up its 2026 global oil‑demand growth forecast to about 930,000 barrels per day from roughly 860,000 previously, the market is still expected to sit in a sizeable surplus this year, with supply outpacing demand and global inventories continuing to build.
The IEA attributes the stronger demand mainly to lower oil prices, a recovery in petrochemical feedstock use and a normalization in global activity after last year’s tariff disruptions, but it also projects global supply to rise by around 2.5 million barrels per day to nearly 109 million, leaving a large, though slightly narrower, glut than in its prior report.
As a result, the agency notes that benchmark crude prices remain well below year‑earlier levels because “bloated” onshore and floating stocks provide a significant buffer against geopolitical risks, likely keeping upward price moves in check unless there is a major supply shock.
Technical side:
USOIL breached above 60.00 and formed higher swings after bouncing from EMA21. Widening bullish EMAs signal a potential continuation of the uptrend.
If USOIL closes above 61.20, the price may retest the next resistance at 62.20.
Alternatively, staying below 61.20 may keep USOIL consolidating within the range of 60.00-61.20.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
The IEA attributes the stronger demand mainly to lower oil prices, a recovery in petrochemical feedstock use and a normalization in global activity after last year’s tariff disruptions, but it also projects global supply to rise by around 2.5 million barrels per day to nearly 109 million, leaving a large, though slightly narrower, glut than in its prior report.
As a result, the agency notes that benchmark crude prices remain well below year‑earlier levels because “bloated” onshore and floating stocks provide a significant buffer against geopolitical risks, likely keeping upward price moves in check unless there is a major supply shock.
Technical side:
USOIL breached above 60.00 and formed higher swings after bouncing from EMA21. Widening bullish EMAs signal a potential continuation of the uptrend.
If USOIL closes above 61.20, the price may retest the next resistance at 62.20.
Alternatively, staying below 61.20 may keep USOIL consolidating within the range of 60.00-61.20.
By Van Ha Trinh - Financial Market Strategist at Exness
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.