Oil back in chop mode around $100 as ceasefire talks stall and headlines keep shifting.
Iran rejecting the US proposal keeps risk premium elevated, while flows through Hormuz remain messy — that’s your floor for now.
On the flip side, US inventories keep building (5th straight week), with a big 6.9m barrel increase and softer exports. Not exactly screaming demand strength.
So you’ve got a market stuck between geopolitics and soft fundamentals.
Technically, nothing’s changed.
Price is still sitting inside that broader bear flag on the 4H. The recent grind higher looks corrective, not impulsive — more squeeze than breakout.
If talks stabilise or the market starts pricing de-escalation, that’s your trigger for a downside move as risk premium fades.
Until then → headline-driven chop inside structure.
Key watch:
– US-Iran tone shifts
– Hormuz / shipping updates
– Follow-through after inventory data
– Reaction at channel resistance
Iran rejecting the US proposal keeps risk premium elevated, while flows through Hormuz remain messy — that’s your floor for now.
On the flip side, US inventories keep building (5th straight week), with a big 6.9m barrel increase and softer exports. Not exactly screaming demand strength.
So you’ve got a market stuck between geopolitics and soft fundamentals.
Technically, nothing’s changed.
Price is still sitting inside that broader bear flag on the 4H. The recent grind higher looks corrective, not impulsive — more squeeze than breakout.
If talks stabilise or the market starts pricing de-escalation, that’s your trigger for a downside move as risk premium fades.
Until then → headline-driven chop inside structure.
Key watch:
– US-Iran tone shifts
– Hormuz / shipping updates
– Follow-through after inventory data
– Reaction at channel resistance
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Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
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Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading leveraged products carries a high level of risk and may result in losses exceeding your initial investment; ensure you fully understand the risks involved.
-
Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
-
Use your TradingView charts to trade your Alchemy account: bit.ly/42vUfjL
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.