Gold is trying to recover after completing a sharp bearish wave sequence into the lower liquidity area. From Kelly’s view, the current structure is developing as an ABC corrective recovery, but the market still needs confirmation before the upside scenario becomes stronger.
The key point is clear: gold can continue the rebound if price confirms above 4119, but the recovery weakens if price breaks below 4053.
⟡ Market structure
Price has reacted from the recent low after a strong impulsive decline, suggesting that sellers may be losing short-term momentum. The current recovery is now moving from the buy liquidity zone around 4084, while price is trying to build a higher-low structure.
However, gold is still trading below the Fibonacci resistance area around 4140–4150. This means the rebound is active, but not fully confirmed yet.
The zone around 4119 is important because it acts as the first confirmation area for the recovery structure. A candle close above this level would support the idea that buyers are gaining control.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4084: buy zone liquidity and current support area
◌ 4119: bullish confirmation level
◌ 4140–4150: Fibonacci resistance zone
◌ 4206: main ABC recovery target
◌ 4053: bearish confirmation level
◌ Below 4053: area where the recovery setup loses quality
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming an ABC corrective structure after completing the previous bearish wave 5.
The current movement can be read as wave A recovery from the low, followed by a possible wave B pullback into the buy liquidity zone. If buyers defend the support area and price confirms above 4119, wave C may start and push gold towards the 4140–4150 resistance first, then 4206 if momentum expands.
If price breaks below 4053, the ABC structure weakens. That would suggest the correction has failed, and sellers may regain control.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for bullish confirmation above 4119 before expecting continuation.
Entry zone: after a confirmation candle above 4119
Stop loss: below 4084 or below the confirmed higher low
Take profit 1: 4140–4150
Take profit 2: 4206
Take profit 3: 4298 if the recovery expands strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold closes below 4053 with clear momentum, the bullish ABC setup becomes invalid, and the market may continue the bearish structure lower.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a conditional ABC recovery setup. The bounce from the liquidity zone is meaningful, but price still needs to prove strength above 4119.
As long as gold holds above 4084 and confirms above 4119, the recovery path remains open towards 4206.
Gold is building a corrective rebound.
But the real confirmation comes only above 4119, while a break below 4053 would shift the structure back to bearish.
Share your view below.
The key point is clear: gold can continue the rebound if price confirms above 4119, but the recovery weakens if price breaks below 4053.
⟡ Market structure
Price has reacted from the recent low after a strong impulsive decline, suggesting that sellers may be losing short-term momentum. The current recovery is now moving from the buy liquidity zone around 4084, while price is trying to build a higher-low structure.
However, gold is still trading below the Fibonacci resistance area around 4140–4150. This means the rebound is active, but not fully confirmed yet.
The zone around 4119 is important because it acts as the first confirmation area for the recovery structure. A candle close above this level would support the idea that buyers are gaining control.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4084: buy zone liquidity and current support area
◌ 4119: bullish confirmation level
◌ 4140–4150: Fibonacci resistance zone
◌ 4206: main ABC recovery target
◌ 4053: bearish confirmation level
◌ Below 4053: area where the recovery setup loses quality
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be forming an ABC corrective structure after completing the previous bearish wave 5.
The current movement can be read as wave A recovery from the low, followed by a possible wave B pullback into the buy liquidity zone. If buyers defend the support area and price confirms above 4119, wave C may start and push gold towards the 4140–4150 resistance first, then 4206 if momentum expands.
If price breaks below 4053, the ABC structure weakens. That would suggest the correction has failed, and sellers may regain control.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for bullish confirmation above 4119 before expecting continuation.
Entry zone: after a confirmation candle above 4119
Stop loss: below 4084 or below the confirmed higher low
Take profit 1: 4140–4150
Take profit 2: 4206
Take profit 3: 4298 if the recovery expands strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold closes below 4053 with clear momentum, the bullish ABC setup becomes invalid, and the market may continue the bearish structure lower.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a conditional ABC recovery setup. The bounce from the liquidity zone is meaningful, but price still needs to prove strength above 4119.
As long as gold holds above 4084 and confirms above 4119, the recovery path remains open towards 4206.
Gold is building a corrective rebound.
But the real confirmation comes only above 4119, while a break below 4053 would shift the structure back to bearish.
Share your view below.
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Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.