XAUUSD: 4,163 Retest Could Trigger Further Decline

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XAUUSD continues to trade clearly within a downtrend channel that has persisted since early May. Notably, selling pressure emerges quickly whenever the price rallies to the channel's upper boundary, resulting in a series of lower highs. Currently, the price is hovering around the 4,060 level—situated within the bearish structure—with no signs yet that the bulls have regained control.

On the chart, the 4,163.6 level stands out as key resistance, representing the confluence of the downtrend channel's upper boundary and an overhead supply zone. If the price rallies to this area but fails to break through, the most likely scenario is a rejection followed by a resumption of the downward trend. Given the prevailing bearish trend, current short-term rallies are best viewed as technical corrections rather than genuine trend reversals.

Entry Focus: Prioritize SELL positions if the price rebounds to the 4,150–4,163 range and shows clear signs of rejection (e.g., a rejection candle).
Target: 3,885.0
Invalidation: The bearish scenario is invalidated if the price closes strongly above the 4,163–4,180 zone and decisively breaks out of the channel's upper boundary.

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