XAUUSD — Bullish Retest Toward 4,425
Gold is showing a short-term bullish recovery after completing the previous downside wave near the lower support area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a corrective bullish structure, with price now reacting from the 4,334–4,340 buy retest support zone.
The key idea is simple: if gold holds above this support, the next recovery leg may continue toward the 4,420–4,435 strong resistance area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold recently completed a bearish 5-wave sequence and is now trying to rebuild from the lower zone. Price is trading around 4,351, slightly above the buy retest support.
The current structure looks like a possible ABC recovery. Buyers are trying to defend the 4,334–4,340 area, while the next major upside target remains the strong resistance zone near 4,420–4,435.
However, gold is still trading below the descending trendline, so the bullish setup needs confirmation. A clean move above 4,380–4,400 would strengthen the recovery and open the way toward the upper resistance.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,351
◌ Buy retest support: 4,334–4,340
◌ Key support: 4,300–4,315
◌ First bullish confirmation: above 4,380
◌ Main resistance: 4,420–4,435
◌ Strong breakout confirmation: above 4,435
◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,300
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart suggests that the previous bearish wave may have already completed near the 4,300 area.
After that, gold started to form a short-term bullish recovery:
Wave A may be the first rebound from the low.
Wave B may be the retest into 4,334–4,340.
If this support holds, wave C may push price toward 4,420–4,435.
This is why Kelly is watching the current retest zone carefully. The bullish idea is valid only if buyers continue to defend support and price starts to break above the short-term resistance levels.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,334–4,340 if price gives bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,300
Take Profit 1: 4,380
Take Profit 2: 4,400
Take Profit 3: 4,420–4,435
Alternative entry
If gold breaks above 4,380–4,400 and retests this area as support, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,420–4,435.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,300 and fails to recover back above the buy retest support. In that case, the recovery structure may fail and sellers could regain control.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view is cautiously bullish while gold holds above 4,334–4,340. The market is showing signs of recovery, but price still needs to confirm strength above 4,380–4,400.
If buyers defend the current support, gold may continue toward 4,420–4,435, where the next key decision zone is waiting.
Do you think gold will complete wave C toward resistance, or retest the lower support one more time first?
Gold is showing a short-term bullish recovery after completing the previous downside wave near the lower support area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be forming a corrective bullish structure, with price now reacting from the 4,334–4,340 buy retest support zone.
The key idea is simple: if gold holds above this support, the next recovery leg may continue toward the 4,420–4,435 strong resistance area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold recently completed a bearish 5-wave sequence and is now trying to rebuild from the lower zone. Price is trading around 4,351, slightly above the buy retest support.
The current structure looks like a possible ABC recovery. Buyers are trying to defend the 4,334–4,340 area, while the next major upside target remains the strong resistance zone near 4,420–4,435.
However, gold is still trading below the descending trendline, so the bullish setup needs confirmation. A clean move above 4,380–4,400 would strengthen the recovery and open the way toward the upper resistance.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,351
◌ Buy retest support: 4,334–4,340
◌ Key support: 4,300–4,315
◌ First bullish confirmation: above 4,380
◌ Main resistance: 4,420–4,435
◌ Strong breakout confirmation: above 4,435
◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,300
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart suggests that the previous bearish wave may have already completed near the 4,300 area.
After that, gold started to form a short-term bullish recovery:
Wave A may be the first rebound from the low.
Wave B may be the retest into 4,334–4,340.
If this support holds, wave C may push price toward 4,420–4,435.
This is why Kelly is watching the current retest zone carefully. The bullish idea is valid only if buyers continue to defend support and price starts to break above the short-term resistance levels.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,334–4,340 if price gives bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,300
Take Profit 1: 4,380
Take Profit 2: 4,400
Take Profit 3: 4,420–4,435
Alternative entry
If gold breaks above 4,380–4,400 and retests this area as support, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,420–4,435.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,300 and fails to recover back above the buy retest support. In that case, the recovery structure may fail and sellers could regain control.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view is cautiously bullish while gold holds above 4,334–4,340. The market is showing signs of recovery, but price still needs to confirm strength above 4,380–4,400.
If buyers defend the current support, gold may continue toward 4,420–4,435, where the next key decision zone is waiting.
Do you think gold will complete wave C toward resistance, or retest the lower support one more time first?
Trade active
The scenario followed the correct structure, but the CPI news triggered a liquidity sweep that caused the "Buy" setup to fail; however, the "Sell" zone at the resistance level was absolutely spot-on, with the stop-loss placed at the nearest resistance.
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⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
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Disclaimer
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.