Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
Long

XAU/USD – Gold Under Heavy Pressure, 4,000$ Break Looks Imminent

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Gold continues to slide as the US Dollar strengthens, fueled by resilient US data. With markets waiting for the final week of November and the upcoming FOMC decision, safe-haven flows remain weak—making XAU/USD extremely vulnerable to further downside.

📊 Technical Outlook – H1/H30

The short-term structure remains clearly bearish:

1️⃣ Trend Bias: Bearish

Price keeps rejecting the descending trendline.

Every pullback is shallow and absorbed quickly by intraday supply zones.

2️⃣ Key Technical Levels

Resistance / Supply Zones:

4,078 – 4,089

4,104 (major confluence: Fibo + H1 supply)

Support / Liquidity Targets:

4,023 – 4,013

3,989 – 3,975 → major liquidity zone (high reaction probability)

3️⃣ Scenarios to Watch

🔻 Scenario 1 — Continuation Drop (Primary Bias)
Break below 4,044 → targets 4,023, then the liquidity sweep at 3,99x – 3,97x.

🔄 Scenario 2 — Pullback Before Drop
Retracement to 4,054 – 4,078 → rejection → continuation lower.

🔺 Scenario 3 — Deeper Recovery (Low Probability)
Only valid if price closes above 4,104, unlocking a move toward 4,13x – 4,15x.

🎯 MMF Trading Plan
SELL – Trend-Following (Primary)

Sell Zone 1: 4,054 – 4,078
SL: 4,105
TP: 4,023 → 4,013 → 3,99x

Sell Zone 2: 4,089 – 4,104
SL: 4,112
TP: 4,054 → 4,023

BUY – Only as a Reaction Trade (Liquidity Sweep)

Buy Zone: 3,99x – 3,97x
SL: 3,955
TP: 4,023 → 4,054

⚠️ Buy setups are counter-trend and require strong confirmation.
Primary bias remains SELL as long as price stays below 4,104.

⚜️ MMFLOW TRADING View

Gold is being pushed toward the psychological 4,000$ support.
A clean break could trigger a broader bearish expansion into 3,98x – 3,95x.

With month-end positioning, FOMC expectations, and shifting Fed sentiment, volatility is likely to increase sharply.
Stay with the trend—SELL the rallies. BUY only at deep liquidity zones with confirmation.

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