XAUUSD: Weak Bounce, Strong Sellers Above
Market Context
Gold is trading around 4,017 after a small rebound from the monthly low area. Buyers are reacting from demand, but the upside still looks limited.
US-Iran tensions and inflation concerns are keeping the USD supported, while the market is still pricing the possibility of a restrictive Fed stance. This creates pressure on gold whenever price rebounds into higher resistance.
Key point: gold is bouncing, but sellers are still waiting above. This is not a confirmed bullish reversal yet.
Technical Structure
Gold is rebounding from the Demand / Buy Reaction Zone around 3,960 - 4,000. This area is holding for now and may support a short-term bounce.
The first important resistance is 4,030 - 4,080. This is the Sell Reaction Zone. If price rebounds into this area and fails, selling pressure may return quickly.
Above that, the Major Supply Zone remains around 4,115 - 4,135. As long as gold stays below this zone, the broader structure still favors sellers.
If demand is lost, price may fall back toward 3,960 and possibly lower.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,017
Demand / Buy Reaction Zone: 3,960 - 4,000
Sell Reaction Zone: 4,030 - 4,080
Major Supply Zone: 4,115 - 4,135
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,080
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,960
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: 3,960 - 4,000
SL: Below 3,940
TP: 4,030 / 4,060 / 4,080
Condition: Price holds demand and shows bullish confirmation. This is only a short-term rebound setup, not a full reversal.
Sell Scenario Priority
Entry: 4,030 - 4,080
SL: Above 4,100
TP: 4,017 / 4,000 / 3,960
Condition: Price rebounds into the Sell Reaction Zone and gets rejected. Sellers regain control if buyers fail to hold above 4,080.
Sell at Major Supply
Entry: 4,115 - 4,135
SL: Above 4,155
TP: 4,080 / 4,030 / 4,000
Condition: Price sweeps higher into major supply and fails to continue. This is the stronger sell area if the rebound extends.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,960
SL: Above 4,000
TP: 3,940 / 3,920 / 3,900
Condition: Demand fails, retest is rejected, and bearish momentum continues.
Overall Bias
Gold is still not bullish yet. The rebound from demand is valid, but the structure remains weak below 4,030 - 4,080.
If buyers reclaim 4,080, gold may extend toward 4,115 - 4,135. If price rejects from the sell zone, sellers may push gold back toward 4,000 and 3,960.
Best approach: wait for confirmation at demand or resistance. Do not chase the bounce while gold is still below the sell zone.
Will gold break 4,080, or will sellers use this rebound to push price back into demand?
Market Context
Gold is trading around 4,017 after a small rebound from the monthly low area. Buyers are reacting from demand, but the upside still looks limited.
US-Iran tensions and inflation concerns are keeping the USD supported, while the market is still pricing the possibility of a restrictive Fed stance. This creates pressure on gold whenever price rebounds into higher resistance.
Key point: gold is bouncing, but sellers are still waiting above. This is not a confirmed bullish reversal yet.
Technical Structure
Gold is rebounding from the Demand / Buy Reaction Zone around 3,960 - 4,000. This area is holding for now and may support a short-term bounce.
The first important resistance is 4,030 - 4,080. This is the Sell Reaction Zone. If price rebounds into this area and fails, selling pressure may return quickly.
Above that, the Major Supply Zone remains around 4,115 - 4,135. As long as gold stays below this zone, the broader structure still favors sellers.
If demand is lost, price may fall back toward 3,960 and possibly lower.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,017
Demand / Buy Reaction Zone: 3,960 - 4,000
Sell Reaction Zone: 4,030 - 4,080
Major Supply Zone: 4,115 - 4,135
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,080
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,960
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario
Entry: 3,960 - 4,000
SL: Below 3,940
TP: 4,030 / 4,060 / 4,080
Condition: Price holds demand and shows bullish confirmation. This is only a short-term rebound setup, not a full reversal.
Sell Scenario Priority
Entry: 4,030 - 4,080
SL: Above 4,100
TP: 4,017 / 4,000 / 3,960
Condition: Price rebounds into the Sell Reaction Zone and gets rejected. Sellers regain control if buyers fail to hold above 4,080.
Sell at Major Supply
Entry: 4,115 - 4,135
SL: Above 4,155
TP: 4,080 / 4,030 / 4,000
Condition: Price sweeps higher into major supply and fails to continue. This is the stronger sell area if the rebound extends.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,960
SL: Above 4,000
TP: 3,940 / 3,920 / 3,900
Condition: Demand fails, retest is rejected, and bearish momentum continues.
Overall Bias
Gold is still not bullish yet. The rebound from demand is valid, but the structure remains weak below 4,030 - 4,080.
If buyers reclaim 4,080, gold may extend toward 4,115 - 4,135. If price rejects from the sell zone, sellers may push gold back toward 4,000 and 3,960.
Best approach: wait for confirmation at demand or resistance. Do not chase the bounce while gold is still below the sell zone.
Will gold break 4,080, or will sellers use this rebound to push price back into demand?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.