XAUUSD – Ascending channel in play, eyes on the 4,240 region
Brian – Buying the dip within structure, watching for a fade at higher resistance
Market overview & structure
On the H4 chart, gold is trading neatly inside a well-defined ascending channel, printing higher highs and higher lows. The current leg is pushing up towards the 4,237–4,240 area, which lines up with:
The upper boundary of the channel
A key resistance zone
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension and resting liquidity above recent highs
So for now, the broader bias remains bullish, but as price creeps closer to 4,240, the risk of profit-taking and short-term selling naturally increases.
Wave & technical context
This move is an extension of the previous bullish structure after price broke out of the old descending channel and started to build a new bullish one.
Liquidity levels around 4,193 and above suggest the market has been building positions and still has room to drive price into the higher resistance band.
The buy zone around 4,154–4,157, near the lower edge of the channel, is where buyers are likely to step back in to defend the trend.
As long as price holds above 4,150–4,154, the continuation scenario towards 4,240 remains the higher-probability path.
Key zones & trading plan
Primary scenario – Buy with the trend
Buy zone: 4,154–4,157 (channel support + marked buy zone).
Idea: Wait for a pullback towards the lower boundary of the channel, or a brief liquidity sweep into this region, then look for a clear rejection candle on H1/H4 before going long.
Targets:
Short term: 4,190–4,200 (mid-channel / interim liquidity).
Extended: 4,237–4,240 (major resistance + 1.618 Fib extension).
This is a trend-following “buy the dip” setup, more suited to swing and short-term position traders rather than scalpers.
Secondary scenario – Short-term fade from 4,237–4,240
Sell zone: 4,237–4,240 – confluence of strong resistance and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Idea: If price tags this zone and shows clear rejection (long upper wicks, bearish reversal pattern on H1/M15), it may offer a counter-trend short back towards the middle of the channel or the 4,190–4,200 support area.
As this is a counter-trend play:
Keep position size smaller than the main long idea.
Use a tight stop above 4,240 and avoid widening it out of emotion.
Macro and liquidity backdrop
Liquidity is likely to thin out towards the end of the session with the US Thanksgiving period in play, which can lead to the odd sharp spike or stop-hunt, especially around obvious liquidity pools.
On the political front, headlines such as Mr Trump’s comments about “permanently suspending immigration from third-world countries” add to broader policy uncertainty, but the impact on gold is indirect via risk sentiment rather than a direct driver.
It’s also worth noting that silver has been rallying strongly, supported by solar-related demand and supply concerns – a bit of a “silent workhorse” at the moment. That doesn’t remove gold’s role, but it does show that precious metals as a whole are attracting capital.
Strategy & risk management
For now, my focus is on buying dips around 4,154–4,157 in line with the ascending channel, and only looking for tactical shorts if price clearly rejects the 4,237–4,240 band.
I prefer not to open fresh trades when US liquidity is extremely thin or straight into major holiday sessions, as spreads can widen and price can behave erratically.
If we see a decisive close below the buy zone and a clean break of the channel structure, this bullish plan is invalidated – at that point it’s better to step aside and reassess rather than forcing trades.
What do you reckon – does this structure still favour the bulls, or are you leaning towards a deeper correction from the 4,240 region? Feel free to share your view in the comments.
Brian – Buying the dip within structure, watching for a fade at higher resistance
Market overview & structure
On the H4 chart, gold is trading neatly inside a well-defined ascending channel, printing higher highs and higher lows. The current leg is pushing up towards the 4,237–4,240 area, which lines up with:
The upper boundary of the channel
A key resistance zone
The 1.618 Fibonacci extension and resting liquidity above recent highs
So for now, the broader bias remains bullish, but as price creeps closer to 4,240, the risk of profit-taking and short-term selling naturally increases.
Wave & technical context
This move is an extension of the previous bullish structure after price broke out of the old descending channel and started to build a new bullish one.
Liquidity levels around 4,193 and above suggest the market has been building positions and still has room to drive price into the higher resistance band.
The buy zone around 4,154–4,157, near the lower edge of the channel, is where buyers are likely to step back in to defend the trend.
As long as price holds above 4,150–4,154, the continuation scenario towards 4,240 remains the higher-probability path.
Key zones & trading plan
Primary scenario – Buy with the trend
Buy zone: 4,154–4,157 (channel support + marked buy zone).
Idea: Wait for a pullback towards the lower boundary of the channel, or a brief liquidity sweep into this region, then look for a clear rejection candle on H1/H4 before going long.
Targets:
Short term: 4,190–4,200 (mid-channel / interim liquidity).
Extended: 4,237–4,240 (major resistance + 1.618 Fib extension).
This is a trend-following “buy the dip” setup, more suited to swing and short-term position traders rather than scalpers.
Secondary scenario – Short-term fade from 4,237–4,240
Sell zone: 4,237–4,240 – confluence of strong resistance and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Idea: If price tags this zone and shows clear rejection (long upper wicks, bearish reversal pattern on H1/M15), it may offer a counter-trend short back towards the middle of the channel or the 4,190–4,200 support area.
As this is a counter-trend play:
Keep position size smaller than the main long idea.
Use a tight stop above 4,240 and avoid widening it out of emotion.
Macro and liquidity backdrop
Liquidity is likely to thin out towards the end of the session with the US Thanksgiving period in play, which can lead to the odd sharp spike or stop-hunt, especially around obvious liquidity pools.
On the political front, headlines such as Mr Trump’s comments about “permanently suspending immigration from third-world countries” add to broader policy uncertainty, but the impact on gold is indirect via risk sentiment rather than a direct driver.
It’s also worth noting that silver has been rallying strongly, supported by solar-related demand and supply concerns – a bit of a “silent workhorse” at the moment. That doesn’t remove gold’s role, but it does show that precious metals as a whole are attracting capital.
Strategy & risk management
For now, my focus is on buying dips around 4,154–4,157 in line with the ascending channel, and only looking for tactical shorts if price clearly rejects the 4,237–4,240 band.
I prefer not to open fresh trades when US liquidity is extremely thin or straight into major holiday sessions, as spreads can widen and price can behave erratically.
If we see a decisive close below the buy zone and a clean break of the channel structure, this bullish plan is invalidated – at that point it’s better to step aside and reassess rather than forcing trades.
What do you reckon – does this structure still favour the bulls, or are you leaning towards a deeper correction from the 4,240 region? Feel free to share your view in the comments.
🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🔥 BrianLionCapital – Where Top Traders Unite
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
✅ Accurate signals & exclusive analysis: 10–15 signals daily with continuous market insights
⏳ Every minute you hesitate is a winning opportunity slipping away!
t.me/+PNA9TDWpr_80ZGQ1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.