XAUUSD H2 – Compression at 5135, breakout to 5270?

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Gold is currently trading inside a tight compression zone around 5135, where two important structures are meeting: a descending trendline from the previous high and a rising support trendline from recent higher lows.

When price gets squeezed between these types of structures, it often signals that the market is building liquidity before a larger directional move.

The key question now is whether gold will break upward toward higher liquidity or lose the structure and rotate lower again.

After the previous sell-off, gold has been gradually stabilizing while forming higher lows near the rising trendline. At the same time, the descending trendline continues to cap the upside, creating a classic triangle compression pattern.

Markets rarely stay compressed for long. Once liquidity is released, the move that follows can often be fast and directional.

Technical Overview

The current structure highlights a key reaction zone near 5134 – 5135, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in.

Above the market, two major resistance levels are visible:

• 5271 – intermediate resistance
• 5313 – major liquidity zone

These levels represent the most likely upside targets if a breakout occurs.

Key Levels

Support / Demand
• 5134

Resistance levels
• 5271
• 5313

IF–THEN Scenarios

📈 Bullish Scenario

If gold continues to hold above 5134 and breaks the descending trendline resistance, momentum could expand toward:

• 5271
• 5313

This would confirm a breakout from the compression structure.

📉 Bearish Scenario

However, if price fails to hold the 5134 demand zone, the bullish structure could weaken and trigger a deeper pullback toward lower liquidity levels.

The market is currently coiling between support and resistance, a structure that typically precedes a strong move once liquidity is released.

Traders should closely monitor the reaction around 5134, as it may determine whether the next move is a bullish breakout or another rotation lower.

Disclaimer

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