Overall trend
The market structure is still bullish.
Price has been making higher highs and higher lows since the 21st.
It is trading above both ascending yellow trendlines.
Buyers are still in control until one of those trendlines breaks decisively.
However, the market is now approaching a strong resistance area.
Red descending trendline
The thick red line is the most important resistance on your chart.
It connects major swing highs and has rejected price multiple times.
Current resistance zone:
Around 4131–4140
If price reaches this zone, expect one of two things:
Rejection (more likely on the first touch)
Strong breakout with high momentum
Horizontal resistance
I can see three important horizontal levels:
4120.8 (current resistance)
4131.8
4161.1 (major resistance)
These are logical profit-taking areas for buyers.
Current price action
The last candles show:
Strong impulsive rally
Small pullback
Sideways consolidation
This means buyers are resting, not necessarily reversing.
Psychology:
Early buyers are taking profits.
New buyers are waiting for confirmation.
Sellers are trying to defend resistance.
No side has won yet.
Your SELL position
From your screenshot:
Sell entry is around 4116–4120
Stop-loss is above 4160
Targets are:TP1: 4072
TP2: 3941
TP3: 3874
This is roughly a trendline rejection swing trade.
The risk-reward is good if the setup works.
The only concern is that you're selling against the short-term bullish momentum.
What I would watch
Scenario 1: SELL works
I would like to see:
Failure to break 4120–4131
Bearish engulfing candle
Lower high on the 15m or 30m
RSI bearish divergence
Increasing selling volume
Then your first target around 4072 becomes realistic.
Scenario 2: SELL fails
If price closes strongly above:
4131
and especially above 4140
then buyers are probably targeting:
4161
then possibly higher.
At that point, holding the short becomes much riskier.
Market psychology
Right now I would rate it like this:
Long-term trend: Bullish (8/10)
Short-term momentum: Bullish (7/10)
Resistance strength: Strong (8/10)
Probability of an initial rejection: Moderate to high
Probability of a full trend reversal from here: Not confirmed
My trading plan
If I were trading this chart, I would not sell immediately just because price is near resistance.
Instead, I'd wait for confirmation such as:
Liquidity sweep above 4120/4131 followed by a close back below
Bearish RSI divergence
Strong bearish rejection candle
Break of the short-term ascending trendline
Lower high after the break
Only then would I look for a short position.
If none of those happen and price simply consolidates above resistance, I'd avoid the trade.
One improvement for your indicator
Since you're building your own TradingView indicator, I'd add a Trade Quality Score instead of firing signals whenever conditions partially align.
For example:
Condition Score
Trend agrees +20
Liquidity sweep +20
RSI divergence +15
Rejection candle +15
Volume above average +10
HTF resistance/support +10
Market not consolidating +5
Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 +5
Then display:
90–100: A+ Trade (green)
75–89: Good Trade (yellow)
Below 75: No Trade (gray)
That approach filters out many mediocre setups and helps focus only on the highest-quality opportunities.
The market structure is still bullish.
Price has been making higher highs and higher lows since the 21st.
It is trading above both ascending yellow trendlines.
Buyers are still in control until one of those trendlines breaks decisively.
However, the market is now approaching a strong resistance area.
Red descending trendline
The thick red line is the most important resistance on your chart.
It connects major swing highs and has rejected price multiple times.
Current resistance zone:
Around 4131–4140
If price reaches this zone, expect one of two things:
Rejection (more likely on the first touch)
Strong breakout with high momentum
Horizontal resistance
I can see three important horizontal levels:
4120.8 (current resistance)
4131.8
4161.1 (major resistance)
These are logical profit-taking areas for buyers.
Current price action
The last candles show:
Strong impulsive rally
Small pullback
Sideways consolidation
This means buyers are resting, not necessarily reversing.
Psychology:
Early buyers are taking profits.
New buyers are waiting for confirmation.
Sellers are trying to defend resistance.
No side has won yet.
Your SELL position
From your screenshot:
Sell entry is around 4116–4120
Stop-loss is above 4160
Targets are:TP1: 4072
TP2: 3941
TP3: 3874
This is roughly a trendline rejection swing trade.
The risk-reward is good if the setup works.
The only concern is that you're selling against the short-term bullish momentum.
What I would watch
Scenario 1: SELL works
I would like to see:
Failure to break 4120–4131
Bearish engulfing candle
Lower high on the 15m or 30m
RSI bearish divergence
Increasing selling volume
Then your first target around 4072 becomes realistic.
Scenario 2: SELL fails
If price closes strongly above:
4131
and especially above 4140
then buyers are probably targeting:
4161
then possibly higher.
At that point, holding the short becomes much riskier.
Market psychology
Right now I would rate it like this:
Long-term trend: Bullish (8/10)
Short-term momentum: Bullish (7/10)
Resistance strength: Strong (8/10)
Probability of an initial rejection: Moderate to high
Probability of a full trend reversal from here: Not confirmed
My trading plan
If I were trading this chart, I would not sell immediately just because price is near resistance.
Instead, I'd wait for confirmation such as:
Liquidity sweep above 4120/4131 followed by a close back below
Bearish RSI divergence
Strong bearish rejection candle
Break of the short-term ascending trendline
Lower high after the break
Only then would I look for a short position.
If none of those happen and price simply consolidates above resistance, I'd avoid the trade.
One improvement for your indicator
Since you're building your own TradingView indicator, I'd add a Trade Quality Score instead of firing signals whenever conditions partially align.
For example:
Condition Score
Trend agrees +20
Liquidity sweep +20
RSI divergence +15
Rejection candle +15
Volume above average +10
HTF resistance/support +10
Market not consolidating +5
Risk:Reward ≥ 1:2 +5
Then display:
90–100: A+ Trade (green)
75–89: Good Trade (yellow)
Below 75: No Trade (gray)
That approach filters out many mediocre setups and helps focus only on the highest-quality opportunities.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.