XAUUSD: The Bounce Is Not the Reversal
Market Context
Gold is trying to recover from the lower area, but the bigger picture is still controlled by sellers. The recent drop broke the short-term support structure, and the rebound so far looks more like a reaction from oversold conditions than a true bullish reversal.
The main story is simple: buyers are trying to breathe, but sellers are still waiting above. Unless gold can reclaim the intraday rejection zone with strength, every bounce remains vulnerable.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 3,974 after a sharp breakdown below the previous support area. The main trend is still downward, and the chart continues to show lower highs with bearish BOS signals.
The nearest area to watch is 3,979 - 3,993. If price reclaims this zone, a short-term bounce may develop toward the intraday rejection zone around 4,010 - 4,020.
But this is where the real test begins. If gold reaches 4,010 - 4,020 and fails to break higher, sellers may react early and push price back down.
The stronger sell area remains higher around 4,058 - 4,068, while the major sell zone is still 4,070 - 4,095. As long as price remains below these zones, the bearish structure stays valid.
Key Levels
Current Price: 3,974
Near Reclaim Zone: 3,979 - 3,993
Intraday Rejection Zone: 4,010 - 4,020
Seller Defense Zone: 4,058 - 4,068
Major Sell Zone: 4,070 - 4,095
Current Low Area: 3,940 - 3,950
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,940
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Short-Term Corrective Bounce
Entry: Above 3,993 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,960
TP1: 4,010
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 4,058
Conditions: Price must reclaim 3,979 - 3,993 with strength, hold the retest, and show clear bullish reaction on the lower timeframe. This is only a corrective bounce setup, not a full reversal, so avoid chasing if price already reaches the rejection zone too quickly.
Sell Scenario: Rejection From Intraday Zone
Entry: 4,010 - 4,020 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,040
TP1: 3,993
TP2: 3,979
TP3: 3,950
Conditions: Price pushes into the intraday rejection zone but fails to hold above it. Bearish rejection appears, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again. This is the first area where sellers may return early.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From Major Zone
Entry: 4,058 - 4,095 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,120
TP1: 4,020
TP2: 3,993
TP3: 3,950
Conditions: Price recovers into the higher sell zone but fails to break structure. Strong rejection appears from 4,058 - 4,095, confirming that sellers are still defending the main bearish trend.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,940 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 3,979
TP1: 3,920
TP2: 3,900
TP3: 3,880
Conditions: Price breaks the current bottom, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the short-term bounce has failed and sellers are ready to extend the next downside leg.
Overall Bias
The main trend is still bearish. Gold may create a short-term rebound from the current low area, but the bounce is not enough to confirm a reversal.
The key area is 4,010 - 4,020. If gold fails there, sellers may return quickly. Only a clean reclaim above 4,058 - 4,095 would weaken the bearish view.
For now, the better plan is to wait for reaction at resistance instead of chasing the bounce from the middle.
Will gold reclaim 4,020 and extend the recovery, or will sellers use this bounce to push price lower again?
Market Context
Gold is trying to recover from the lower area, but the bigger picture is still controlled by sellers. The recent drop broke the short-term support structure, and the rebound so far looks more like a reaction from oversold conditions than a true bullish reversal.
The main story is simple: buyers are trying to breathe, but sellers are still waiting above. Unless gold can reclaim the intraday rejection zone with strength, every bounce remains vulnerable.
Technical Structure
Gold is trading around 3,974 after a sharp breakdown below the previous support area. The main trend is still downward, and the chart continues to show lower highs with bearish BOS signals.
The nearest area to watch is 3,979 - 3,993. If price reclaims this zone, a short-term bounce may develop toward the intraday rejection zone around 4,010 - 4,020.
But this is where the real test begins. If gold reaches 4,010 - 4,020 and fails to break higher, sellers may react early and push price back down.
The stronger sell area remains higher around 4,058 - 4,068, while the major sell zone is still 4,070 - 4,095. As long as price remains below these zones, the bearish structure stays valid.
Key Levels
Current Price: 3,974
Near Reclaim Zone: 3,979 - 3,993
Intraday Rejection Zone: 4,010 - 4,020
Seller Defense Zone: 4,058 - 4,068
Major Sell Zone: 4,070 - 4,095
Current Low Area: 3,940 - 3,950
Bearish Continuation: Below 3,940
Trading Plan
Buy Scenario: Short-Term Corrective Bounce
Entry: Above 3,993 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 3,960
TP1: 4,010
TP2: 4,020
TP3: 4,058
Conditions: Price must reclaim 3,979 - 3,993 with strength, hold the retest, and show clear bullish reaction on the lower timeframe. This is only a corrective bounce setup, not a full reversal, so avoid chasing if price already reaches the rejection zone too quickly.
Sell Scenario: Rejection From Intraday Zone
Entry: 4,010 - 4,020 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,040
TP1: 3,993
TP2: 3,979
TP3: 3,950
Conditions: Price pushes into the intraday rejection zone but fails to hold above it. Bearish rejection appears, buyers lose momentum, and price starts forming lower highs again. This is the first area where sellers may return early.
Alternative Sell Scenario: Sell From Major Zone
Entry: 4,058 - 4,095 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,120
TP1: 4,020
TP2: 3,993
TP3: 3,950
Conditions: Price recovers into the higher sell zone but fails to break structure. Strong rejection appears from 4,058 - 4,095, confirming that sellers are still defending the main bearish trend.
Breakdown Sell
Entry: Below 3,940 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 3,979
TP1: 3,920
TP2: 3,900
TP3: 3,880
Conditions: Price breaks the current bottom, retest fails, and bearish momentum continues. This would confirm that the short-term bounce has failed and sellers are ready to extend the next downside leg.
Overall Bias
The main trend is still bearish. Gold may create a short-term rebound from the current low area, but the bounce is not enough to confirm a reversal.
The key area is 4,010 - 4,020. If gold fails there, sellers may return quickly. Only a clean reclaim above 4,058 - 4,095 would weaken the bearish view.
For now, the better plan is to wait for reaction at resistance instead of chasing the bounce from the middle.
Will gold reclaim 4,020 and extend the recovery, or will sellers use this bounce to push price lower again?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.