XAUUSD – Gold Surges Strongly, But The Next Pullback May Be The Key
Gold is showing a powerful bullish reaction after a sharp upside move.
Price is currently trading around 4,256 after breaking above previous resistance and expanding strongly from the lower accumulation area. The move shows clear buyer strength, but after such a fast rally, the next pullback will be very important.
The main question now is simple: will gold hold the new buy zones and continue toward the market sentiment target around 4,340 – 4,350?
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is being supported by a softer USD tone, lower Treasury yields, and easing concerns about aggressive Fed tightening.
If the market continues to believe that the Fed may not push rates as strongly as previously feared, gold can benefit because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes lighter.
Central bank gold demand also remains an important long-term supportive factor. However, risk is still present. If inflation stays high or the Fed turns more hawkish again, gold may face short-term profit-taking after this strong rally.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a strong bullish displacement from the lower structure and broken through key resistance levels with momentum.
The breakout above the previous resistance around 4,165 confirmed that buyers were no longer just defending support — they were taking control of the structure.
Now, price is trading above the 0.786 Fibonacci reaction area and holding near the upper part of the bullish leg. This shows strong momentum, but it also means chasing the current price can be risky.
The first important support is the Buy Order Scalping zone around 4,235 – 4,245. If gold pulls back into this area and holds, buyers may attempt another push toward the upper target.
Below that, the Buy Order zone around 4,190 – 4,200 is the deeper support. The swing buy zone around 4,155 – 4,165 remains the last important structure support for the current bullish view.
The main upside target is the Market Sentiment Target zone around 4,340 – 4,350.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,256
Buy Order Scalping zone: 4,235 – 4,245
Buy Order zone: 4,190 – 4,200
Buy Order Swing zone: 4,155 – 4,165
Short-term resistance: 4,280 – 4,300
Market Sentiment Target zone: 4,340 – 4,350
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,235
Deeper bullish support: 4,190 – 4,200
Invalidation for short-term bullish view: Below 4,155
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Priority View
Buy Zone: 4,235 – 4,245
Entry: Bullish reaction, liquidity sweep, lower timeframe CHoCH, or strong rejection from the buy zone
SL: Below 4,235 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,280 – 4,300
TP2: 4,340 – 4,350
Pullback Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,190 – 4,200
Entry: Wait for clear bullish reaction from the deeper Buy Order zone
SL: Below 4,190
TP1: 4,245
TP2: 4,300
TP3: 4,340 – 4,350
Sell Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Sell is not the priority while gold remains above the buy zones.
Sell Zone: 4,340 – 4,350
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,300
TP2: 4,245
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,350, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is clearly stronger now.
The chart shows a strong bullish breakout, supported by momentum and a cleaner market structure. However, after a fast vertical move, I prefer not to chase price at the top.
The cleaner plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,235 – 4,245. If buyers defend this zone, gold may continue toward 4,340 – 4,350.
If price pulls back deeper, 4,190 – 4,200 becomes the next important area where buyers may try to rebuild momentum.
For now, buyers are in control — but the next pullback will tell us whether this bullish wave is strong enough to continue.
Do you think gold will hold 4,235 and continue toward 4,350?
Gold is showing a powerful bullish reaction after a sharp upside move.
Price is currently trading around 4,256 after breaking above previous resistance and expanding strongly from the lower accumulation area. The move shows clear buyer strength, but after such a fast rally, the next pullback will be very important.
The main question now is simple: will gold hold the new buy zones and continue toward the market sentiment target around 4,340 – 4,350?
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is being supported by a softer USD tone, lower Treasury yields, and easing concerns about aggressive Fed tightening.
If the market continues to believe that the Fed may not push rates as strongly as previously feared, gold can benefit because the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets becomes lighter.
Central bank gold demand also remains an important long-term supportive factor. However, risk is still present. If inflation stays high or the Fed turns more hawkish again, gold may face short-term profit-taking after this strong rally.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + FIBONACCI
From an SMC perspective, gold has created a strong bullish displacement from the lower structure and broken through key resistance levels with momentum.
The breakout above the previous resistance around 4,165 confirmed that buyers were no longer just defending support — they were taking control of the structure.
Now, price is trading above the 0.786 Fibonacci reaction area and holding near the upper part of the bullish leg. This shows strong momentum, but it also means chasing the current price can be risky.
The first important support is the Buy Order Scalping zone around 4,235 – 4,245. If gold pulls back into this area and holds, buyers may attempt another push toward the upper target.
Below that, the Buy Order zone around 4,190 – 4,200 is the deeper support. The swing buy zone around 4,155 – 4,165 remains the last important structure support for the current bullish view.
The main upside target is the Market Sentiment Target zone around 4,340 – 4,350.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 4,256
Buy Order Scalping zone: 4,235 – 4,245
Buy Order zone: 4,190 – 4,200
Buy Order Swing zone: 4,155 – 4,165
Short-term resistance: 4,280 – 4,300
Market Sentiment Target zone: 4,340 – 4,350
Bullish structure valid: Above 4,235
Deeper bullish support: 4,190 – 4,200
Invalidation for short-term bullish view: Below 4,155
TRADING SCENARIOS
Buy Scenario – Priority View
Buy Zone: 4,235 – 4,245
Entry: Bullish reaction, liquidity sweep, lower timeframe CHoCH, or strong rejection from the buy zone
SL: Below 4,235 or below the nearest swing low
TP1: 4,280 – 4,300
TP2: 4,340 – 4,350
Pullback Buy Scenario
Buy Zone: 4,190 – 4,200
Entry: Wait for clear bullish reaction from the deeper Buy Order zone
SL: Below 4,190
TP1: 4,245
TP2: 4,300
TP3: 4,340 – 4,350
Sell Scenario – Only Short-Term Reaction
Sell is not the priority while gold remains above the buy zones.
Sell Zone: 4,340 – 4,350
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed breakout, or lower timeframe bearish CHoCH
TP1: 4,300
TP2: 4,245
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds above 4,350, the sell reaction idea becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is clearly stronger now.
The chart shows a strong bullish breakout, supported by momentum and a cleaner market structure. However, after a fast vertical move, I prefer not to chase price at the top.
The cleaner plan is to wait for a pullback into 4,235 – 4,245. If buyers defend this zone, gold may continue toward 4,340 – 4,350.
If price pulls back deeper, 4,190 – 4,200 becomes the next important area where buyers may try to rebuild momentum.
For now, buyers are in control — but the next pullback will tell us whether this bullish wave is strong enough to continue.
Do you think gold will hold 4,235 and continue toward 4,350?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.