From Kelly’s view, gold is building a strong bullish recovery after reversing from the 3,890–3,900 area. Price is currently trading around 4,128, and the latest impulsive move has already pushed into the first major resistance near 4,146.
The key idea is simple: the bullish structure may remain valid while gold holds above the 4,050–4,060 buy zone. A controlled Wave (4) pullback could create the base for the next Wave (5) expansion toward 4,177, 4,198, and eventually the 4,250–4,260 target zone.
⟡ Market structure
Gold has shifted from the previous bearish sequence into a clear recovery structure, forming higher lows from the recent 3,890 area.
The current bullish impulse has reached the 4,146 resistance, where short-term selling pressure may appear.
Below price, 4,082 is the first strong support. The more important Wave (4) demand area sits around 4,045–4,060, where the chart marks the main buy zone.
If buyers defend this correction, the next bullish leg could reclaim 4,146 and extend toward the higher liquidity levels at 4,177 and 4,198.
A successful breakout through those levels may open the larger Fibonacci objective around 4,250–4,260.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,125–4,130
◌ Main buy zone: 4,045–4,060
◌ Strong support: 4,082
◌ First resistance: 4,146
◌ Second resistance: 4,177
◌ Strong resistance: 4,198
◌ First target: 4,146
◌ Second target: 4,177–4,198
◌ Main target: 4,250–4,260
◌ Invalidation: Below 4,045
⌁ Elliott Wave view
Wave (1): The first bullish recovery developed from the lower structure and pushed gold toward approximately 3,970.
Wave (2): Price corrected back toward the 3,900 area, where buyers defended the new bullish structure.
Wave (3): The strongest expansion has pushed gold toward the 4,146 resistance area.
Wave (4): A corrective retracement may now develop toward 4,082, with the deeper 4,045–4,060 buy zone acting as the main support area.
Wave (5): If buyers defend Wave (4), the next impulsive leg may break 4,146, then extend toward 4,177–4,198 before targeting the 4,250–4,260 Fibonacci completion zone.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: 4,045–4,060 after bullish confirmation
Stop Loss: Below 4,045
Take Profit 1: 4,146
Take Profit 2: 4,177–4,198
Take Profit 3: 4,250–4,260
The cleaner plan is to wait for a controlled Wave (4) correction rather than chase the current bullish impulse near resistance.
A bullish reaction from 4,045–4,060, followed by a reclaim of 4,082, would strengthen the continuation scenario. A confirmed breakout above 4,146 could then open the path toward 4,177, 4,198, and the larger Wave (5) target.
Alternative scenario:
If gold holds above 4,082 and breaks 4,146 without a deeper pullback, a successful retest of 4,146 as support could allow the bullish sequence to continue directly toward 4,177–4,198.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish structure would weaken if price loses the 4,050–4,060 buy zone without a meaningful reaction.
A sustained break below 4,045 would invalidate the preferred Wave (4) support structure and suggest that gold may require a deeper correction before another bullish sequence develops.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bullish while gold holds above the 4,045–4,082 support structure.
The first important challenge is 4,146. If buyers clear this level and maintain the higher-low structure, 4,177 and 4,198 become the next upside objectives before the larger 4,250–4,260 Wave (5) target comes into focus.
Do you think gold will complete the Wave (4) pullback first, or break 4,146 and continue higher?
Trade active
Gold has reached the projected Wave 4 target area around 4,040–4,060, where price is now reacting near the marked buy zone. From Kelly’s view, this correction may be approaching completion, but there is still no clear reversal confirmation yet.
The key is to monitor this area for stronger bullish structure and buyer reaction. If price confirms a reversal while holding above the zone, the next bullish leg could develop into Wave 5, with higher resistance levels becoming the next targets.
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Disclaimer
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.