XAUUSD — 4,100 Started the Hunt
Gold is starting to feel less like a clean recovery and more like a market that came back up only to reload sellers.
Price pushed into the upper FVG around the 4,130 - 4,140 area, but instead of breaking through with strength, it stalled, rejected, and started rolling back down. That is the part I am paying attention to. For newer traders, an FVG does not always act like a support zone. When price returns into it from below and fails to hold, that same area can become a supply zone where sellers quietly step back in.
That is why my main view is bearish now. The earlier bullish structure already lost momentum after price failed to reclaim the higher levels near 4,167.590. Now gold is pressing back toward 4,100.355, and if this level gives way cleanly, the market may start hunting the next sell-side liquidity around 4,081.101 first.
The story here is simple: buyers tried to breathe, but the upper FVG did not wake up in their favour. If sellers keep control below 4,130 - 4,140, I would expect price to keep drifting toward the lower FVG zone around 4,050 - 4,060. That area could create a reaction, but it is also the next logical magnet if 4,100 fails.
This bearish idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims the upper FVG and holds above 4,140. A stronger invalidation would be a clean push back above 4,167.590, because that would show buyers are no longer just reacting — they are taking structure back.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,100.355
Main supply / FVG sell zone: 4,130 - 4,140
Bearish confirmation zone: clean break below 4,100.355
First downside liquidity target: 4,081.101
Main downside FVG target: 4,050 - 4,060
Lower support if selling continues: 4,028.265
Major lower liquidity: 3,960.275
Invalidation: clean reclaim above 4,140, stronger invalidation above 4,167.590
Do you think sellers can fully break 4,100 here, or will gold fake the breakdown before reacting from the lower FVG?
Gold is starting to feel less like a clean recovery and more like a market that came back up only to reload sellers.
Price pushed into the upper FVG around the 4,130 - 4,140 area, but instead of breaking through with strength, it stalled, rejected, and started rolling back down. That is the part I am paying attention to. For newer traders, an FVG does not always act like a support zone. When price returns into it from below and fails to hold, that same area can become a supply zone where sellers quietly step back in.
That is why my main view is bearish now. The earlier bullish structure already lost momentum after price failed to reclaim the higher levels near 4,167.590. Now gold is pressing back toward 4,100.355, and if this level gives way cleanly, the market may start hunting the next sell-side liquidity around 4,081.101 first.
The story here is simple: buyers tried to breathe, but the upper FVG did not wake up in their favour. If sellers keep control below 4,130 - 4,140, I would expect price to keep drifting toward the lower FVG zone around 4,050 - 4,060. That area could create a reaction, but it is also the next logical magnet if 4,100 fails.
This bearish idea becomes weak only if gold reclaims the upper FVG and holds above 4,140. A stronger invalidation would be a clean push back above 4,167.590, because that would show buyers are no longer just reacting — they are taking structure back.
Key price zones to watch
Current reaction area: 4,100.355
Main supply / FVG sell zone: 4,130 - 4,140
Bearish confirmation zone: clean break below 4,100.355
First downside liquidity target: 4,081.101
Main downside FVG target: 4,050 - 4,060
Lower support if selling continues: 4,028.265
Major lower liquidity: 3,960.275
Invalidation: clean reclaim above 4,140, stronger invalidation above 4,167.590
Do you think sellers can fully break 4,100 here, or will gold fake the breakdown before reacting from the lower FVG?
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.