XAUUSD suffered a sharp liquidation after the market removed part of the geopolitical risk premium.
🌐 Trump’s decision to delay attacks on key Iranian energy infrastructure by five days, combined with the narrative of “productive” talks, temporarily reduced fears of an immediate escalation. As a result, oil dropped sharply, yields eased, the dollar weakened, and the market shifted into a more risk-friendly mood.
🇺🇸 In theory, a weaker DXY and softer yields should support gold. But that was not enough today. The dominant driver was the removal of the war premium and the aggressive liquidation of long positions.
📈On the daily chart, the short-term structure turned clearly bearish. There was a sequence of bearish candles, strong downside expansion, and elevated volume on the selloff, which suggests real seller participation rather than a mild correction.
🔹At the same time, the long lower wick on the latest move shows that there was some absorption at lower levels. That weakens the idea of selling an already stretched impulsive drop in the middle of panic and increases the importance of key technical zones.
🔹On higher timeframes, gold had been in a structural bullish trend. Now the market is entering a transition into a medium-term bearish structure as long as price remains below the 4470 to 4550 zone.
🔹With gold trading around 4375, price is sitting right in the middle of a critical area between support at 4300 and resistance at 4470 to 4550. That reinforces the need to avoid forcing shorts without a clear trigger.
🔹My reading is the following:
⚡As long as price remains below the 4470 to 4550 range, immediate control stays with sellers. That area now acts as pullback resistance.
⚡If the market loses 4300 with acceptance, the path may open for another test of the 4100 region. Between 4300 and 4100, the 4250 area may act as an intermediate support and partial profit-taking zone.
⚡On the other hand, if gold recovers the 4470 to 4550 range and holds above it, the reading changes. In that case, the recent decline may start to look more like a liquidity flush than a clean bearish continuation.
⚡Operational scenario:
The preferred scenario remains bearish, but not in the middle of panic. The cleaner setup would be to watch for a pullback into the 4470 to 4550 region and look for rejection for a short, or wait for a confirmed loss of 4300 to look for continuation. While price remains between those zones, the market stays in a decision area, with elevated risk of violent headline-driven rebounds.
⚡Therefore, the main scenario is still short-term weakness, but with the asset already highly sensitive to short covering and fast rebounds. In an environment this dependent on headlines about Iran, Hormuz, and energy, selling empty downside momentum tends to be a worse approach than waiting for a pullback into resistance or a confirmed break of support.
Key levels:
4550
4470
4300
4250
4100
Summary:
⚡Gold weakened because the market removed part of the geopolitical premium that had supported the previous rally. The daily structure remains pressured, but the move is already stretched. Below 4470 to 4550, the bias remains bearish. A loss of 4300 may open room toward 4100, with 4250 as an intermediate support. A firm recovery above resistance would weaken the bearish continuation view.
🌐 Trump’s decision to delay attacks on key Iranian energy infrastructure by five days, combined with the narrative of “productive” talks, temporarily reduced fears of an immediate escalation. As a result, oil dropped sharply, yields eased, the dollar weakened, and the market shifted into a more risk-friendly mood.
🇺🇸 In theory, a weaker DXY and softer yields should support gold. But that was not enough today. The dominant driver was the removal of the war premium and the aggressive liquidation of long positions.
📈On the daily chart, the short-term structure turned clearly bearish. There was a sequence of bearish candles, strong downside expansion, and elevated volume on the selloff, which suggests real seller participation rather than a mild correction.
🔹At the same time, the long lower wick on the latest move shows that there was some absorption at lower levels. That weakens the idea of selling an already stretched impulsive drop in the middle of panic and increases the importance of key technical zones.
🔹On higher timeframes, gold had been in a structural bullish trend. Now the market is entering a transition into a medium-term bearish structure as long as price remains below the 4470 to 4550 zone.
🔹With gold trading around 4375, price is sitting right in the middle of a critical area between support at 4300 and resistance at 4470 to 4550. That reinforces the need to avoid forcing shorts without a clear trigger.
🔹My reading is the following:
⚡As long as price remains below the 4470 to 4550 range, immediate control stays with sellers. That area now acts as pullback resistance.
⚡If the market loses 4300 with acceptance, the path may open for another test of the 4100 region. Between 4300 and 4100, the 4250 area may act as an intermediate support and partial profit-taking zone.
⚡On the other hand, if gold recovers the 4470 to 4550 range and holds above it, the reading changes. In that case, the recent decline may start to look more like a liquidity flush than a clean bearish continuation.
⚡Operational scenario:
The preferred scenario remains bearish, but not in the middle of panic. The cleaner setup would be to watch for a pullback into the 4470 to 4550 region and look for rejection for a short, or wait for a confirmed loss of 4300 to look for continuation. While price remains between those zones, the market stays in a decision area, with elevated risk of violent headline-driven rebounds.
⚡Therefore, the main scenario is still short-term weakness, but with the asset already highly sensitive to short covering and fast rebounds. In an environment this dependent on headlines about Iran, Hormuz, and energy, selling empty downside momentum tends to be a worse approach than waiting for a pullback into resistance or a confirmed break of support.
Key levels:
4550
4470
4300
4250
4100
Summary:
⚡Gold weakened because the market removed part of the geopolitical premium that had supported the previous rally. The daily structure remains pressured, but the move is already stretched. Below 4470 to 4550, the bias remains bearish. A loss of 4300 may open room toward 4100, with 4250 as an intermediate support. A firm recovery above resistance would weaken the bearish continuation view.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.