XAUUSD – Gold Bounces Slightly, But Sellers Still Control The Channel
Gold is trying to bounce from the lower area, but the bigger structure is still heavy.
Price is currently trading around 3,996 after reacting near the recent low. The small recovery shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower zone, but gold is still moving inside a clear descending channel.
For now, this looks more like a technical bounce than a confirmed bullish reversal.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term buying in the Asian session, but the broader background still leans cautious.
Higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tension may increase inflation concerns. This can support expectations that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, which is usually a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.
So even if gold rebounds, upside may remain limited unless buyers can break key resistance with strength.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold remains inside a descending channel. Price has been forming lower highs, and each recovery attempt has been limited by resistance.
The key sell reaction zone is around 4,022. This area was previous support and may now act as resistance if gold retests it.
Below current price, the day low around 3,969 is the next important level. If gold breaks this area, sellers may continue pushing price toward the lower liquidity zone around 3,943.
The chart is simple: as long as price stays below 4,022, sellers still have control. A clean reclaim above 4,022 would weaken the immediate bearish view.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 3,996
Sell zone support: 4,022
Day low: 3,969
Buy scalping / liquidity zone: 3,943
Lower channel target: 3,880 – 3,900
Bearish below: 3,969
Invalidation for sell view: Above 4,022
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: Around 4,022
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed reclaim, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Above 4,022 or nearest swing high
TP1: 3,969
TP2: 3,943
TP3: Lower channel area if momentum expands
Breakdown Sell
Below 3,969 after confirmation → Target 3,943 first
Buy Scenario
Buy is not the priority while gold stays inside the descending channel.
Buy Zone: Around 3,943 only if strong reaction appears
Entry: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or CHoCH
TP1: 3,969
TP2: 3,996
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 3,943, the buy reaction becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is bouncing slightly, but the trend has not changed.
The chart still belongs to sellers while price remains below 4,022 and inside the descending channel. A short-term bounce can happen from the lower zone, but without a strong reclaim, the bearish structure remains active.
For me, 4,022 is the key reaction level.
If gold rejects from this area, the next downside path toward 3,969 and 3,943 remains open.
Gold is trying to recover — but sellers still have the stronger structure.
Do you think gold can reclaim 4,022, or will sellers push price back toward 3,943?
Gold is trying to bounce from the lower area, but the bigger structure is still heavy.
Price is currently trading around 3,996 after reacting near the recent low. The small recovery shows that buyers are trying to defend the lower zone, but gold is still moving inside a clear descending channel.
For now, this looks more like a technical bounce than a confirmed bullish reversal.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Gold is receiving some short-term buying in the Asian session, but the broader background still leans cautious.
Higher oil prices and renewed geopolitical tension may increase inflation concerns. This can support expectations that the Fed keeps rates higher for longer, which is usually a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold.
So even if gold rebounds, upside may remain limited unless buyers can break key resistance with strength.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – SMC + MARKET STRUCTURE
From an SMC perspective, gold remains inside a descending channel. Price has been forming lower highs, and each recovery attempt has been limited by resistance.
The key sell reaction zone is around 4,022. This area was previous support and may now act as resistance if gold retests it.
Below current price, the day low around 3,969 is the next important level. If gold breaks this area, sellers may continue pushing price toward the lower liquidity zone around 3,943.
The chart is simple: as long as price stays below 4,022, sellers still have control. A clean reclaim above 4,022 would weaken the immediate bearish view.
KEY PRICE ZONES
Current price: 3,996
Sell zone support: 4,022
Day low: 3,969
Buy scalping / liquidity zone: 3,943
Lower channel target: 3,880 – 3,900
Bearish below: 3,969
Invalidation for sell view: Above 4,022
TRADING SCENARIOS
Sell Scenario
Sell Zone: Around 4,022
Entry: Bearish rejection, failed reclaim, or lower-timeframe CHoCH
SL: Above 4,022 or nearest swing high
TP1: 3,969
TP2: 3,943
TP3: Lower channel area if momentum expands
Breakdown Sell
Below 3,969 after confirmation → Target 3,943 first
Buy Scenario
Buy is not the priority while gold stays inside the descending channel.
Buy Zone: Around 3,943 only if strong reaction appears
Entry: Liquidity sweep, bullish rejection, or CHoCH
TP1: 3,969
TP2: 3,996
Invalidation: If price breaks and holds below 3,943, the buy reaction becomes weaker.
MY VIEW
Gold is bouncing slightly, but the trend has not changed.
The chart still belongs to sellers while price remains below 4,022 and inside the descending channel. A short-term bounce can happen from the lower zone, but without a strong reclaim, the bearish structure remains active.
For me, 4,022 is the key reaction level.
If gold rejects from this area, the next downside path toward 3,969 and 3,943 remains open.
Gold is trying to recover — but sellers still have the stronger structure.
Do you think gold can reclaim 4,022, or will sellers push price back toward 3,943?
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Trading is a journey. The destination is mastering yourself
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
t.me/+qqEvv7Li9Tg2NTE1
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.