Gold is building a bullish recovery structure after completing the previous bearish wave near the lower area. From Kelly’s view, the current chart suggests that XAUUSD may be preparing for a new upside continuation while price is holding around the Buy zone wave 3.
The key idea is simple: gold may be forming wave (2) correction now, and if buyers defend the current buy zone, wave (3) can start pushing toward the upper liquidity levels.
⟡ Market Structure
Gold reacted strongly from the previous low near 4,280–4,300, showing that sellers lost momentum and buyers started to rebuild structure.
Price is now trading around 4,411, right above the Buy zone wave 3 near 4,390–4,410. This zone is important because it may act as the base for the next bullish impulse.
If this support holds, gold may continue higher toward 4,441, 4,476, and the strong liquidity zone near 4,510. A clean break above 4,510 would strengthen the bullish continuation toward the Resistance Fibonacci + FVG / Sell zone wave 4 around 4,585–4,605.
➤ Key Levels
◌ Current price area: 4,411
◌ Buy zone wave 3: 4,390–4,410
◌ First liquidity: 4,441
◌ Second liquidity: 4,476
◌ Strong liquidity: 4,510
◌ Resistance Fibonacci + FVG: 4,585–4,605
◌ Final wave 5 target: 4,725–4,740
◌ Bullish invalidation: below 4,360
⌁ Elliott Wave View
The chart shows a possible bullish Elliott Wave recovery.
Wave (1) formed after gold bounced from the lower demand area.
Wave (2) is now correcting back into the 4,390–4,410 buy zone.
If this zone holds, wave (3) may push price toward 4,510 and then 4,585–4,605.
After that, wave (4) may create a short pullback.
The final wave (5) target remains near 4,725–4,740.
This is why Kelly is not chasing buys too late. The cleaner plan is to wait for confirmation around the buy zone, then follow the bullish structure step by step.
▸ Trading Scenario
Preferred bullish scenario
Entry: Buy around 4,390–4,410 if price gives bullish confirmation from the Buy zone wave 3
Stop Loss: Below 4,360
Take Profit 1: 4,441
Take Profit 2: 4,476–4,510
Take Profit 3: 4,585–4,605
Take Profit 4: 4,725–4,740
Alternative entry
If gold breaks above 4,510 and retests this level as support, buyers may look for continuation toward 4,585–4,605.
◌ Invalidation
The bullish view becomes weaker if gold breaks below 4,360 and fails to reclaim the buy zone. In that case, wave (2) may extend lower and the bullish setup needs more confirmation.
⌁ Kelly’s View
Kelly’s main view remains bullish while gold holds above 4,390–4,410. The market is showing a recovery structure, and the current pullback may be only a correction before wave (3) continues higher.
If buyers defend the buy zone, gold may continue toward 4,441, 4,510, then the larger upside zone around 4,585–4,605. The bigger Elliott target remains near 4,725–4,740.
Do you think gold will start wave (3) from this buy zone, or retest lower before the next rally?
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Disclaimer
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.