Gold's recovery has stalled beneath a critical Fibonacci resistance zone, bringing sellers back into focus. But after another rejection, could the next decline challenge the previous low and expose a deeper support area?
Market Structure — Sellers Defend the Lower High
Following the rejection from the October highs, XAUUSD developed a sustained bearish sequence characterized by lower highs and lower lows.
The latest decline extended from 4,082.495 toward 3,872.889, reinforcing the prevailing downward structure.
Gold subsequently staged a recovery toward the 3,965–3,983 Fibonacci premium zone.
However, buyers failed to sustain the advance.
The market has since developed another short-term lower high and returned toward 3,911.950 on the referenced chart.
The rebound was meaningful, but the broader bearish structure remains intact.
Key Zones — Where the Next Move Could Develop
The Fibonacci measurement highlights several important references:
3,922.356: Immediate Fibonacci pivot.
3,952.958: Intermediate recovery resistance.
3,965–3,983: Fibonacci premium and potential bearish retest zone.
3,872–3,887: Critical downside support.
3,790–3,807: Deeper support and conditional bearish objective.
Above these levels, the 4,022–4,038 POC region remains an important higher resistance reference.
Primary Scenario — Another Bearish Leg?
If Gold continues trading beneath 3,922.356, the recovery may remain vulnerable to further selling pressure.
A failed attempt to reclaim 3,953 would reinforce the immediate lower-high structure.
Under this scenario, sellers could revisit 3,872–3,887.
A decisive breakdown below the previous low at 3,872.889, followed by a failed reclaim, would strengthen the bearish continuation case.
The next downside reference would be the marked 3,790–3,807 support zone.
However, this target remains conditional on a confirmed structural breakdown.
Alternate Scenario — Can Buyers Defend the Previous Low?
A bullish reaction remains possible if buyers successfully defend 3,872–3,887.
The first recovery challenge would be reclaiming 3,922.356, followed by 3,952.958.
A stronger advance could bring Gold back toward the 3,965–3,983 Fibonacci premium zone.
If buyers overcome this resistance and establish a sustained higher-low structure, the recovery could extend toward 4,022–4,038, where the chart identifies an important POC.
A broader structural reversal would require additional confirmation above major resistance.
Macro Context — Fed Expectations and US Economic Data
Gold remains sensitive to interest-rate expectations and wider financial-market volatility.
The latest US manufacturing figures showed continued expansion, while input-price pressures remained elevated.
At the same time, lower oil prices have eased some inflation concerns.
Investors are also watching the US midterm elections and upcoming employment data for their potential influence on market sentiment and Federal Reserve expectations.
Final Perspective
A failed rebound does not guarantee another decline, but it keeps the bearish structure relevant.
The immediate challenge for buyers is reclaiming 3,922, followed by the resistance around 3,953–3,983.
For sellers, the critical confirmation would be a sustained breakdown beneath 3,872.889.
Until either scenario develops, the market remains at an important structural decision point.
The rebound tested resistance. The next support reaction will test the strength of the downtrend.
Will Gold defend the previous low and rebuild a recovery, or will another lower high open the door to deeper support?
Trade closed manually
The original bearish structure played out as anticipated, with price extending towards the deeper support zone near 3,875 before initiating a strong recovery.
Gold has now reclaimed the 4,020–4,035 POC region, bringing price back into a key reaction area. The broader structural resistance near 4,071 remains an important level to watch.
This trading plan concludes here. Going forward, price action around the reclaimed zone will be crucial in determining whether the recovery momentum can continue or bearish pressure may return.
Structure first. Discipline always.
— DanteGoldRoom
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.