The final trading session of the week arrives with no major macro catalyst capable of shifting market sentiment. Earlier this week, softer U.S. inflation data temporarily weakened the dollar but failed to generate a sustained recovery in Gold. Markets continue to price in a cautious Federal Reserve, with policymakers showing little urgency to ease monetary policy while inflation risks remain elevated. As a result, Treasury yields have stabilized and institutional flows continue to favor defensive positioning rather than aggressive buying in precious metals.
With the week's key economic releases now behind us, price action becomes increasingly important. The fact that Gold has been unable to capitalize on supportive inflation data suggests that buyers remain hesitant, while sellers continue to dominate the broader market structure.
From a technical perspective, Gold is set to close the week below the descending trendline on the H4 timeframe, reinforcing the existing bearish trend. Every recovery toward the Demand + Trendline resistance has been met with renewed selling pressure, confirming this confluence as the key institutional supply zone. Meanwhile, price continues to hold above the short-term support around 396x, but the rebound lacks momentum and has yet to produce a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS).
A weekly close beneath the trendline would strengthen the bearish narrative and keep the focus on the next liquidity zone around 392x–393x. Until buyers reclaim the descending trendline, the current recovery should still be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a broader reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as Gold remains below the Demand + Descending Trendline resistance, sellers are likely to maintain control. Any short-term recovery toward this resistance cluster could attract fresh selling pressure, with the 392x–393x support zone remaining the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed H4 close above the Demand resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would suggest the current selling pressure is losing strength and open the door for a broader corrective recovery.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
With the week's key economic releases now behind us, price action becomes increasingly important. The fact that Gold has been unable to capitalize on supportive inflation data suggests that buyers remain hesitant, while sellers continue to dominate the broader market structure.
From a technical perspective, Gold is set to close the week below the descending trendline on the H4 timeframe, reinforcing the existing bearish trend. Every recovery toward the Demand + Trendline resistance has been met with renewed selling pressure, confirming this confluence as the key institutional supply zone. Meanwhile, price continues to hold above the short-term support around 396x, but the rebound lacks momentum and has yet to produce a confirmed Break of Structure (BOS).
A weekly close beneath the trendline would strengthen the bearish narrative and keep the focus on the next liquidity zone around 392x–393x. Until buyers reclaim the descending trendline, the current recovery should still be viewed as corrective rather than the start of a broader reversal.
PRIMARY SCENARIO
As long as Gold remains below the Demand + Descending Trendline resistance, sellers are likely to maintain control. Any short-term recovery toward this resistance cluster could attract fresh selling pressure, with the 392x–393x support zone remaining the next downside objective.
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO
If buyers manage to reclaim the descending trendline and secure a confirmed H4 close above the Demand resistance, bearish momentum could begin to fade. Such a move would suggest the current selling pressure is losing strength and open the door for a broader corrective recovery.
MARKET VIEW
Current Bias: Bearish
Preferred Strategy: Sell the Rally – Wait for Confirmation
Trade active
Gold followed the previous trading plan with remarkable precision. Price was rejected from the 4,001 Demand resistance, extending nearly 400 pips lower before reaching the projected 396x demand zone, where buyers finally stepped in and absorbed the selling pressure.The rebound from demand allowed Gold to recover above 4,001 into the weekly close, easing immediate downside momentum. However, despite the strong reaction from support, price still finished below the broader descending trendline, meaning the higher-timeframe bearish structure remains intact. The recovery improves short-term sentiment, but buyers still need a confirmed breakout above the trendline to invalidate the prevailing bearish narrative.
Current Bias: Bearish (Neutral in the short term)
Preferred Strategy: Wait Confirmation – Sell the Rally while below the trendline.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.