After a sharp decline in the session at the end of the week on 13/03, the market is beginning to reflect global macro risks more clearly. Recent US economic data shows that the economy still maintains a certain resilience, helping the USD retain its strength, while geopolitical factors and military tensions continue to shift defensive capital flows between USD and gold. However, it is noteworthy that gold no longer reacts strongly to supportive news, and each recovery is gradually weakening – a common sign before the market enters a deeper decline phase.
After losing the support structure around 5055, the price quickly slid to the psychological zone of 5000, in line with the previously forecasted decline scenario. Currently, the market is testing the last key level of the large range 5000–5200. This is a crucial liquidity zone, where it will be decided whether gold continues to sideway or officially enters a new mid-term decline.
On the technical structure, the price is moving within the H4 down channel, with the demand zones above continuously being broken. This indicates that bearish pressure still prevails, and the current recoveries are mainly retests of the structure before continuing to decline.
Main Scenario (bearish continuation) If gold loses the 5000 zone, the market could open up deeper declines towards 4850 → 4700, where the next large liquidity zones are concentrated on the mid-term frame.
Technical Recovery Scenario If 5000 holds in the short term, gold may experience a technical recovery up to 5050 → 5100 before the market decides the next direction.
Key Levels to Watch
5200 – 5350: large supply zone
5050 – 5100: structure retest zone
5000: decisive key level
4850 – 4700: next liquidity zone if breakdown
In the current context, 5000 is the last price zone keeping the market within the range. A clear break below this zone could be a confirmation signal that the accumulation phase has ended and the mid-term decline of gold is beginning.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading to update the multi-timeframe gold roadmap, liquidity zones, and market scenarios before the next major breakouts.
After losing the support structure around 5055, the price quickly slid to the psychological zone of 5000, in line with the previously forecasted decline scenario. Currently, the market is testing the last key level of the large range 5000–5200. This is a crucial liquidity zone, where it will be decided whether gold continues to sideway or officially enters a new mid-term decline.
On the technical structure, the price is moving within the H4 down channel, with the demand zones above continuously being broken. This indicates that bearish pressure still prevails, and the current recoveries are mainly retests of the structure before continuing to decline.
Main Scenario (bearish continuation) If gold loses the 5000 zone, the market could open up deeper declines towards 4850 → 4700, where the next large liquidity zones are concentrated on the mid-term frame.
Technical Recovery Scenario If 5000 holds in the short term, gold may experience a technical recovery up to 5050 → 5100 before the market decides the next direction.
Key Levels to Watch
5200 – 5350: large supply zone
5050 – 5100: structure retest zone
5000: decisive key level
4850 – 4700: next liquidity zone if breakdown
In the current context, 5000 is the last price zone keeping the market within the range. A clear break below this zone could be a confirmation signal that the accumulation phase has ended and the mid-term decline of gold is beginning.
📊 Follow LucasGrayTrading to update the multi-timeframe gold roadmap, liquidity zones, and market scenarios before the next major breakouts.
Trade active
GOLD UPDATE | H4 BREAKDOWN CONFIRMED
The price is following the scenario as the 5000 zone has been broken along with the H4 uptrend line, confirming a significant structural breakdown after a long accumulation phase. Following this break, the market is beginning to form a clear bearish momentum, indicating that capital is continuing to seek liquidity in lower zones.
Currently, gold is retesting the break area around 4990–5000. If this area becomes a new resistance, selling pressure may continue to push the price down to 4850 → 4700, which are the next major support zones in the medium term.
The question now is: will tonight's US session continue to be another strong push after the H4 structure has broken?
Follow LucasGrayTrading for updates on liquidity zones and the gold roadmap ahead of the next big moves.
Trade closed: target reached
GOLD UPDATE | WAITING FOR BREAKOUT
Currently, gold is fluctuating around the equilibrium zone of 5000–5030, where the H4 trendline intersects with the short-term supply and demand zone. After the previous strong decline, the market is showing signs of sideways accumulation, with no clear leading force emerging.
In the smaller frames (H1/H4), the price is compressing within a narrow range → this is a typical state before a strong breakout occurs.
If it breaks above 5050–5070 → confirms a technical rebound to 5100+
If it breaks below 5000 → continues the downtrend towards 4850 → 4700
➡️ Gold is in the “decision zone” — breaking either boundary will clarify the trend.
📊 Detailed intraday scenario will be available in PLAN 17/03. Follow to not miss out.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.