Gold (XAU/USD) prices struggled to recover from a seven-week low of around $4,480 at the opening of the week. The unstoppable dominance of the US Dollar (USD)—fueled by renewed military threats from the White House and sabotage of energy infrastructure in the Gulf—has locked the precious metal in a bearish trend.
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✅ Geopolitics: Barakah Nuclear Strike & Trump's Final Ultimatum
Military escalation in the Middle East has reached a dangerously high level, altering the global risk landscape:
- ⚡Barakah Nuclear Power Plant Sabotage: Reports of a drone strike that sparked a fire at the UAE's Barakah Nuclear Power Plant and Saudi Arabia's interception of a drone from Iraq signal a new chapter in an increasingly aggressive proxy war.
- ⚡"There Will Be Nothing Left": In response, President Donald Trump issued a dire warning via Truth Social, stating that "time is ticking" and "there will be nothing left" if Iran does not immediately sign the draft peace deal.
- ⚡Total Blockade: The US's tight blockade of Iranian ports and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have successfully sent crude oil prices to a two-week high, reviving the "spectre" of global inflation.
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✅ Monetary: Rate Hike Bets Reach >50%
Fears of a new inflationary spiral due to soaring energy prices have immediately changed the financial market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve:
- ⚡FedWatch Dominance: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of 2026 has now officially surpassed 50%.
- ⚡Strong Yields & DXY: This outlook keeps US Treasury yields on an upward trajectory, strengthening the greenback's position as the most liquid major reserve currency. Massive capital flows are favoring holding USD in cash over non-yielding assets like gold.
- ⚡Physical vs. Macro: Although physical demand in China remains strong (keeping premiums high), record discounts in India demonstrate that retail demand is beginning to waver in the face of global volatility, making it unable to cushion gold prices from macro shocks.
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✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Without significant US economic data this Monday, technical movements will be driven purely by headlines (Headline Risk):
- ⚡Least Resistance Path: Down. Any short-term price recovery (pullback) will likely be immediately exploited by large institutions to open new short positions (sell on rallies).
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,480 - $4,450): If the structural base at $4,480 is broken at the close of the New York session, the next downside target will immediately target the $4,440 zone.
- ⚡Support Resistance ($4,520 - $4,550): Daily gains are projected to be held tight in this confluence area before the market gains new fundamental clarity.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Geopolitics: Barakah Nuclear Strike & Trump's Final Ultimatum
Military escalation in the Middle East has reached a dangerously high level, altering the global risk landscape:
- ⚡Barakah Nuclear Power Plant Sabotage: Reports of a drone strike that sparked a fire at the UAE's Barakah Nuclear Power Plant and Saudi Arabia's interception of a drone from Iraq signal a new chapter in an increasingly aggressive proxy war.
- ⚡"There Will Be Nothing Left": In response, President Donald Trump issued a dire warning via Truth Social, stating that "time is ticking" and "there will be nothing left" if Iran does not immediately sign the draft peace deal.
- ⚡Total Blockade: The US's tight blockade of Iranian ports and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have successfully sent crude oil prices to a two-week high, reviving the "spectre" of global inflation.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ Monetary: Rate Hike Bets Reach >50%
Fears of a new inflationary spiral due to soaring energy prices have immediately changed the financial market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve:
- ⚡FedWatch Dominance: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by the end of 2026 has now officially surpassed 50%.
- ⚡Strong Yields & DXY: This outlook keeps US Treasury yields on an upward trajectory, strengthening the greenback's position as the most liquid major reserve currency. Massive capital flows are favoring holding USD in cash over non-yielding assets like gold.
- ⚡Physical vs. Macro: Although physical demand in China remains strong (keeping premiums high), record discounts in India demonstrate that retail demand is beginning to waver in the face of global volatility, making it unable to cushion gold prices from macro shocks.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Without significant US economic data this Monday, technical movements will be driven purely by headlines (Headline Risk):
- ⚡Least Resistance Path: Down. Any short-term price recovery (pullback) will likely be immediately exploited by large institutions to open new short positions (sell on rallies).
- ⚡Critical Support ($4,480 - $4,450): If the structural base at $4,480 is broken at the close of the New York session, the next downside target will immediately target the $4,440 zone.
- ⚡Support Resistance ($4,520 - $4,550): Daily gains are projected to be held tight in this confluence area before the market gains new fundamental clarity.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.