Gold breaks trendline — real reversal or liquidity trap?

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Curiosity Opening

Gold on the H1 timeframe has just broken above a descending trendline after a prolonged corrective phase following the CPI-driven pullback.

This move is attracting attention because markets often break structure before seeking liquidity in the opposite direction.

The key question now: is this the beginning of a true bullish reversal, or simply a temporary breakout before another liquidity sweep?

Macro Narrative

• The recent CPI release came largely in line with expectations, reducing inflation uncertainty.
• With no major inflation surprise, the USD stabilized, allowing gold to consolidate.
• Markets often reposition after major macro events.
• Liquidity-driven moves tend to appear after consolidation phases.

News Context

After the CPI event volatility, markets are entering a positioning phase, where traders reassess the next directional move.

In such environments, gold often trades technically around liquidity zones and key Fibonacci levels.

IF–THEN News Scenarios

If the USD continues stabilizing:
Gold may retest lower liquidity near 5169 before attempting another move higher.

If the USD weakens again:
Gold could extend the rebound and challenge resistance levels near 5235 and potentially 5303.

Technical Overview

On the H1 chart, gold recently broke a descending trendline that had been guiding the corrective move since the CPI reaction.

Price is now trading around the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, suggesting that the market may still look for liquidity before confirming the next expansion.

A short pullback toward 5169 could act as a liquidity grab before continuation toward the higher Fibonacci levels.

If bullish momentum builds, the next key liquidity clusters appear near 5235 and 5303.

Key Levels

Support / Liquidity: 5169

Resistance 1: 5213

Resistance 2: 5235

Upside Liquidity Target: 5303

Market Debate

Is this trendline breakout the start of a larger bullish move?

Or will the market sweep liquidity near 5169 first before moving higher?

Disclaimer

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