The current gold market no longer reacts solely to news but operates according to cash flow logic after a strong sell-off from the peak. The macro context shows a clear tug-of-war: growth shows signs of slowing while inflation remains high. This creates a 'conflicting expectations' environment, where gold is supported defensively but simultaneously pressured by the USD. Therefore, recent increases are more technical rebounds rather than a true accumulation process.
On the H2 frame, the price structure maintains a downward trend with clearly lower highs and lower lows. After a strong breakdown, the market is rebounding to retest an important confluence area including Fibo 0.5–0.618, FVG, and the descending trendline. This is a decisive area where large cash flows often exploit for redistribution rather than trend reversal.
The main scenario still leans towards the possibility of price rejection at the 4470–4520 area. If this occurs, the market is likely to return to the 43xx area and extend down to deeper liquidity areas around 41xx. This development aligns with the logic of 'pullback to continue the downtrend,' where rebounds only serve to create liquidity for sellers.
In the event that the price breaks and holds above the 4520 area, the market may extend the rebound to the 4550–4600 area. However, it should be emphasized that this is still just a deep rebound within a larger downtrend structure, not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
Overall, the market is still in a repricing and liquidity filtering phase. A true bottom has not yet formed as market sentiment remains expectant and cash flow has not completed the process of sweeping lower liquidity. Therefore, the main trend remains downward, and rebounds to the supply area continue to be seen as opportunities for the market to continue the sell-off in the short and medium term.
LucasGrayTrading
On the H2 frame, the price structure maintains a downward trend with clearly lower highs and lower lows. After a strong breakdown, the market is rebounding to retest an important confluence area including Fibo 0.5–0.618, FVG, and the descending trendline. This is a decisive area where large cash flows often exploit for redistribution rather than trend reversal.
The main scenario still leans towards the possibility of price rejection at the 4470–4520 area. If this occurs, the market is likely to return to the 43xx area and extend down to deeper liquidity areas around 41xx. This development aligns with the logic of 'pullback to continue the downtrend,' where rebounds only serve to create liquidity for sellers.
In the event that the price breaks and holds above the 4520 area, the market may extend the rebound to the 4550–4600 area. However, it should be emphasized that this is still just a deep rebound within a larger downtrend structure, not yet sufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
Overall, the market is still in a repricing and liquidity filtering phase. A true bottom has not yet formed as market sentiment remains expectant and cash flow has not completed the process of sweeping lower liquidity. Therefore, the main trend remains downward, and rebounds to the supply area continue to be seen as opportunities for the market to continue the sell-off in the short and medium term.
LucasGrayTrading
Trade active
The price reacted precisely at the demand zone 4475 (Fibo + FVG) and created a rapid decline to 4422 (~500 pips), confirming this as a short-term supply flip/distribution zone rather than a continuation of recovery.This reaction indicates that large capital flows are still utilizing recovery phases to push prices down and attract liquidity below, aligning with the current downtrend structure. The inability of the price to hold above the 0.5–0.618 zone further reinforces that this is merely a weak pullback in the downtrend.
In the short term, if the price continues to be compressed below the 4450–4475 zone, downward pressure remains dominant, and the market is likely to retest the 43xx level, potentially extending to deeper liquidity zones around 41xx.
Conversely, only if the price reclaims and holds the 4475 zone will the recovery scenario expand. However, at present, price behavior still leans towards continuing the downtrend following a clear supply reaction.
Trade closed: target reached
GOLD 27/03 – H2 UPDATE | SURPRISING RECOVERY AT THE END OF THE SESSIONAfter a reactionary drop of ~500 pips from the demand zone 4475 to 4422, the market quickly reversed during the US session and made a strong break back above the demand zone, indicating that the price action is not merely a continuation of distribution but has shown signs of reclaiming liquidity.
Closing the weekly candle with a break above the 4470–4500 zone is significant: the previous demand zone has shifted its role from short-term supply back to a confirmed support zone, absorbing most of the selling pressure from the previous decline. This is a sign that large funds have begun to stop short-term selling and are moving into a phase of rebalancing positions.
However, it is important to recognize: the larger structure has not completely reversed. The price is currently only recovering within a larger downtrend channel, and there remains a strong supply zone around 4500–4550 (Fibo 0.618 + FVG).
The current scenario is divided into 2 directions:
If the price holds above the 4470–4500 zone → it may continue to expand upwards to test 4520–4560, creating a deeper recovery.
Conversely, if it fails and falls back below this zone → the recent break may only be a false break to attract liquidity, and the downtrend will continue with a target of returning to 43xx – 41xx.
The market has shown signs of transitioning from "strong selling" to "short-term balance," but there is not enough data to confirm a reversal. The 4470–4500 zone now becomes the key level determining the trend at the start of next week – holding it means a deeper recovery, losing it means the continuation of the downtrend.
Stay tuned for LucasGrayTrading's detailed plan for the first week of April – where the market will reveal its next direction after this reclaim phase.
Note
The price has returned to retest the descending trendline after breaking through, aligning with the scenario of the plan on 03/27, confirming that the market behavior is moving according to the structure of break → retest → continuation.The rebound to the 4450–4480 area (Fibo 0.382 + demand flip + trendline) currently serves as a supply test, not a reversal signal. The price reaction here indicates that this area is playing the role of a short-term supply, where capital continues to be utilized for distribution.
If the price cannot hold above the retest area and continues to be rejected, the main scenario remains a continuation of the downtrend, targeting a return to 43xx and extending down to 42xx–41xx – the large liquidity area below.
Conversely, only if the price strongly reclaims and holds above the trendline, the short-term structure may shift to a deeper recovery state. However, at the current time, price behavior still clearly leans towards retesting to continue selling off, consistent with the capital flow logic after a breakdown phase.
Note
The price has confirmed a short-term bullish shift by decisively breaking through the Demand + Fibo cluster, simultaneously escaping the previous downward compression structure. The current momentum indicates that the cash flow is prioritizing an expansion of the recovery phase rather than an immediate continuation of the decline.New Structure:
Break the 4470–4520 zone → shift from supply to short-term support
Form a series of higher lows – higher highs on H2
Push towards the upper liquidity zone (0.786 / 4600+ zone)
Main Scenario:
Prioritize continuation → recover to test the liquidity zones 4560–4600+
Then monitor the reaction to determine: continuation or return to the major downtrend
Conclusion:
Short-term bias has shifted to bullish, but it remains within the context of a pullback in the larger downtrend → prioritize short-term buy, medium-term sell when confirmation signals appear.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
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👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Daily trend & Supply/Demand insights 📊
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
👉 t.me/+WR75kcwrAOw3MzZl
High-probability zones & structured setups
Clear scenarios for better decision-making
Trade smarter with LucasGrayTrading 🎖
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.