XAUUSD — Wave 5 Drop Before Rebound
Gold is still moving inside a bearish channel after failing to hold above the short-term support area. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may still need one more downside leg to complete wave (5), before a light corrective rebound appears from the lower buy zone.
The key idea is simple: gold may continue lower first toward the End wave 5 / Buy zone, then create a short ABC recovery back toward the resistance area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,263, after breaking below the previous support near 4,275. This shows that sellers are still controlling the short-term structure.
The market remains inside a descending channel, and price is still printing lower highs under the trendline. As long as gold stays below the 4,290–4,298 sell zone, the bearish wave structure remains valid.
The next important downside area is the 4,245–4,252 End wave 5 / Buy zone. This zone may act as the final reaction area for the current bearish wave. If buyers defend this area, gold may create a light rebound toward 4,275, then possibly 4,290–4,298.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,263
◌ Strong support turned resistance: 4,275
◌ End wave 5 / Buy zone: 4,245–4,252
◌ Short-term rebound target: 4,275
◌ Main sell zone: 4,290–4,298
◌ Bearish invalidation: above 4,305
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart shows a bearish Elliott Wave structure developing inside the descending channel.
Wave (1) started after price rejected from the upper area.
Wave (2) created a corrective rebound but failed under resistance.
Wave (3) pushed gold lower toward the lower channel structure.
Wave (4) created a small recovery near 4,290, but sellers rejected it again.
Wave (5) may now continue toward 4,245–4,252 to complete the bearish sequence.
After wave (5) completes, gold may form a small ABC correction. In that case, the rebound target could be 4,275 first, then the stronger sell zone around 4,290–4,298.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell on rejection below 4,275–4,290
Stop Loss: Above 4,305
Take Profit 1: 4,252
Take Profit 2: 4,245
Rebound scenario after wave 5
If gold reaches 4,245–4,252 and gives bullish reaction, price may correct upward toward 4,275, then 4,290–4,298.
This rebound should be viewed as a correction first, not a confirmed bullish reversal, unless gold breaks and holds above the sell zone.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,305 and holds above the sell zone. In that case, the current wave (5) downside setup may fail, and price could attempt a stronger recovery.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish first, with gold likely to complete wave (5) near 4,245–4,252. After that, a light corrective rebound may appear toward 4,275 or 4,290–4,298.
The cleaner plan is not to chase price at the current level, but to watch whether gold completes wave (5) at the lower buy zone and then reacts with a short recovery.
Do you think gold will complete wave (5) first, or rebound before reaching the lower buy zone?
Gold is still moving inside a bearish channel after failing to hold above the short-term support area. From Kelly’s view, the chart suggests that XAUUSD may still need one more downside leg to complete wave (5), before a light corrective rebound appears from the lower buy zone.
The key idea is simple: gold may continue lower first toward the End wave 5 / Buy zone, then create a short ABC recovery back toward the resistance area.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,263, after breaking below the previous support near 4,275. This shows that sellers are still controlling the short-term structure.
The market remains inside a descending channel, and price is still printing lower highs under the trendline. As long as gold stays below the 4,290–4,298 sell zone, the bearish wave structure remains valid.
The next important downside area is the 4,245–4,252 End wave 5 / Buy zone. This zone may act as the final reaction area for the current bearish wave. If buyers defend this area, gold may create a light rebound toward 4,275, then possibly 4,290–4,298.
➤ Key levels
◌ Current price area: 4,263
◌ Strong support turned resistance: 4,275
◌ End wave 5 / Buy zone: 4,245–4,252
◌ Short-term rebound target: 4,275
◌ Main sell zone: 4,290–4,298
◌ Bearish invalidation: above 4,305
⌁ Elliott Wave view
The chart shows a bearish Elliott Wave structure developing inside the descending channel.
Wave (1) started after price rejected from the upper area.
Wave (2) created a corrective rebound but failed under resistance.
Wave (3) pushed gold lower toward the lower channel structure.
Wave (4) created a small recovery near 4,290, but sellers rejected it again.
Wave (5) may now continue toward 4,245–4,252 to complete the bearish sequence.
After wave (5) completes, gold may form a small ABC correction. In that case, the rebound target could be 4,275 first, then the stronger sell zone around 4,290–4,298.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred bearish scenario
Entry: Sell on rejection below 4,275–4,290
Stop Loss: Above 4,305
Take Profit 1: 4,252
Take Profit 2: 4,245
Rebound scenario after wave 5
If gold reaches 4,245–4,252 and gives bullish reaction, price may correct upward toward 4,275, then 4,290–4,298.
This rebound should be viewed as a correction first, not a confirmed bullish reversal, unless gold breaks and holds above the sell zone.
◌ Invalidation
The bearish view becomes weaker if gold breaks above 4,305 and holds above the sell zone. In that case, the current wave (5) downside setup may fail, and price could attempt a stronger recovery.
⌁ Kelly’s view
Kelly’s main view remains bearish first, with gold likely to complete wave (5) near 4,245–4,252. After that, a light corrective rebound may appear toward 4,275 or 4,290–4,298.
The cleaner plan is not to chase price at the current level, but to watch whether gold completes wave (5) at the lower buy zone and then reacts with a short recovery.
Do you think gold will complete wave (5) first, or rebound before reaching the lower buy zone?
Trade active
The scenario played out exactly, completing the 5-wave Elliott pattern; both buy and sell trades yielded excellent, accurate results.
📌 New analysis published daily
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Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+_8wydjUbci5hMzJl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.