Gold is currently moving inside a wave 2 structure after the strong recovery from the lower liquidity area. From Kelly’s view, the market is now sitting in a sensitive accumulation zone, where the next confirmation will decide whether buyers continue the recovery or sellers regain control.
The key point is clear: bullish confirmation comes above 4,245, while bearish confirmation comes below 4,170.
⟡ Market structure
Price reacted strongly from the previous lower base and pushed into the upper area before starting to correct. The current pullback is now holding around the 4,170–4,180 accumulation zone, which makes this area important for the next directional move.
As long as gold holds above 4,170, the wave 2 correction can still remain valid. If buyers defend this zone and price later breaks above 4,245, the recovery structure may continue into the next bullish wave.
However, if price loses 4,170 with a clear confirmation candle, the wave 2 structure weakens and the market may rotate lower towards the buy liquidity area below.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,170–4,180: accumulation and current decision zone
◌ 4,245: bullish confirmation level
◌ 4,204: key resistance before confirmation
◌ 4,135–4,145: buy-side liquidity reaction area
◌ 4,118: lower confirmation zone for uptrend recovery
◌ 4,053: deeper sell confirmation level if weakness expands
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing wave 2 after the initial recovery move.
Wave 1 created the first bullish impulse from the lower range. The current move can be read as wave 2 correction, where price is testing whether buyers can hold the structure before wave 3 develops.
If gold confirms above 4,245, the bullish wave count gains quality, and wave 3 may begin with stronger upside momentum.
If gold breaks below 4,170, the wave 2 structure loses strength, and the market may need to search for lower liquidity before rebuilding another recovery base.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to confirm above 4,245 before expecting bullish continuation.
Entry zone: after a confirmation candle above 4,245
Stop loss: below the confirmed higher low or below 4,170
Take profit 1: 4,280
Take profit 2: 4,298
Take profit 3: 4,350 if wave 3 expands strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold closes below 4,170 with clear momentum, the bullish wave 2 setup weakens. In that case, price may rotate lower towards 4,135–4,145 first, then 4,118 or 4,053 if selling pressure expands.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a confirmation-based wave 2 setup. The reaction around 4,170–4,180 is important, but the market still needs to prove strength above 4,245 before the bullish continuation becomes cleaner.
Gold is holding the decision zone now.
Above 4,245, the recovery can continue. Below 4,170, the structure turns fragile again.
Share your view below.
The key point is clear: bullish confirmation comes above 4,245, while bearish confirmation comes below 4,170.
⟡ Market structure
Price reacted strongly from the previous lower base and pushed into the upper area before starting to correct. The current pullback is now holding around the 4,170–4,180 accumulation zone, which makes this area important for the next directional move.
As long as gold holds above 4,170, the wave 2 correction can still remain valid. If buyers defend this zone and price later breaks above 4,245, the recovery structure may continue into the next bullish wave.
However, if price loses 4,170 with a clear confirmation candle, the wave 2 structure weakens and the market may rotate lower towards the buy liquidity area below.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,170–4,180: accumulation and current decision zone
◌ 4,245: bullish confirmation level
◌ 4,204: key resistance before confirmation
◌ 4,135–4,145: buy-side liquidity reaction area
◌ 4,118: lower confirmation zone for uptrend recovery
◌ 4,053: deeper sell confirmation level if weakness expands
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to be developing wave 2 after the initial recovery move.
Wave 1 created the first bullish impulse from the lower range. The current move can be read as wave 2 correction, where price is testing whether buyers can hold the structure before wave 3 develops.
If gold confirms above 4,245, the bullish wave count gains quality, and wave 3 may begin with stronger upside momentum.
If gold breaks below 4,170, the wave 2 structure loses strength, and the market may need to search for lower liquidity before rebuilding another recovery base.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to confirm above 4,245 before expecting bullish continuation.
Entry zone: after a confirmation candle above 4,245
Stop loss: below the confirmed higher low or below 4,170
Take profit 1: 4,280
Take profit 2: 4,298
Take profit 3: 4,350 if wave 3 expands strongly
Alternative scenario: if gold closes below 4,170 with clear momentum, the bullish wave 2 setup weakens. In that case, price may rotate lower towards 4,135–4,145 first, then 4,118 or 4,053 if selling pressure expands.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a confirmation-based wave 2 setup. The reaction around 4,170–4,180 is important, but the market still needs to prove strength above 4,245 before the bullish continuation becomes cleaner.
Gold is holding the decision zone now.
Above 4,245, the recovery can continue. Below 4,170, the structure turns fragile again.
Share your view below.
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Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.