Hello traders, if we put short-term noise aside and look at XAUUSD in a disciplined and objective way, the current picture is sending a fairly clear message: the bearish trend has not been broken yet.
Looking at the broader backdrop, pressure on gold remains as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation has increased expectations of a Fed rate hike, while U.S. Treasury yields continue to stay elevated. This keeps the interest-rate environment unfavorable for a non-yielding asset like gold. In other words, the current rebound still lacks the fundamental catalyst needed to signal the beginning of a new uptrend.
Moving to the H4 chart, the bearish structure remains quite clear:
Price continues to trade below the descending trendline, with a consistent sequence of lower highs.
The area around 4,365 is not random: the descending trendline and the Ichimoku zone converge here, creating an important defensive area for sellers.
Recent recovery attempts have lacked follow-through, suggesting that buyers have yet to regain meaningful control.
What stands out is this: every time gold approaches the resistance area above, selling pressure returns relatively quickly. When a market repeatedly fails to break resistance despite several recovery attempts, it often signals that sellers are still controlling the structure.
📌 Highest-probability scenario:
As long as XAUUSD remains below 4,365 and the descending trendline stays intact, I expect the current rebound to face renewed selling pressure, with my main target around 4,225. Only a decisive and sustained breakout above the bearish structure would make me reassess this scenario.
Looking at the broader backdrop, pressure on gold remains as hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation has increased expectations of a Fed rate hike, while U.S. Treasury yields continue to stay elevated. This keeps the interest-rate environment unfavorable for a non-yielding asset like gold. In other words, the current rebound still lacks the fundamental catalyst needed to signal the beginning of a new uptrend.
Moving to the H4 chart, the bearish structure remains quite clear:
Price continues to trade below the descending trendline, with a consistent sequence of lower highs.
The area around 4,365 is not random: the descending trendline and the Ichimoku zone converge here, creating an important defensive area for sellers.
Recent recovery attempts have lacked follow-through, suggesting that buyers have yet to regain meaningful control.
What stands out is this: every time gold approaches the resistance area above, selling pressure returns relatively quickly. When a market repeatedly fails to break resistance despite several recovery attempts, it often signals that sellers are still controlling the structure.
📌 Highest-probability scenario:
As long as XAUUSD remains below 4,365 and the descending trendline stays intact, I expect the current rebound to face renewed selling pressure, with my main target around 4,225. Only a decisive and sustained breakout above the bearish structure would make me reassess this scenario.
Trade active
Trade closed: target reached
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Educational only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Related publications
Disclaimer
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Want the full plan behind this analysis?
Free daily Forex, Gold, Crypto setups with reasoning
Entry, invalidation, targets and reviews
👉 Join free: t.me/+-HowPr1J4k03NGY1
Educational only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Free daily Forex, Gold, Crypto setups with reasoning
Entry, invalidation, targets and reviews
👉 Join free: t.me/+-HowPr1J4k03NGY1
Educational only. Not financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.