Gold closed the week under heavy pressure after a sharp decline into the weak low area around 4,311–4,328. From Kelly’s view, the main structure is still bearish, but early next week may bring an ABC corrective recovery if price can hold above the current low zone.
This is not a full bullish reversal yet. It is a potential recovery phase after a strong sell-off.
⟡ Market structure
Gold is still trading inside a descending channel, with the broader trend controlled by lower highs and strong sell pressure. The latest drop broke through the previous support area and pushed price into the weak low zone near 4,311.
However, the chart now shows a possible short-term reaction from this area. If buyers can defend the current low, price may start forming an ABC rebound towards the sell liquidity zone around 4,420–4,430.
The key point is simple: the bearish trend is still valid, but a corrective bounce may come first if the current support holds.
➤ Key levels
◌ 4,311–4,328: weak low and current reaction zone
◌ 4,360–4,380: first recovery area
◌ 4,420–4,430: sell liquidity and ABC target zone
◌ 4,311: support that must hold for the ABC rebound
◌ Below 4,300: area where the recovery scenario weakens
⌁ Elliott Wave view
From an Elliott Wave perspective, gold appears to have completed a short-term bearish 5-wave move into the current low. After this kind of extension, the market often needs a corrective phase before deciding the next larger direction.
If price holds above 4,311, the next structure may develop as an ABC recovery:
A wave: first rebound from the weak low
B wave: pullback after the initial recovery
C wave: push towards the sell liquidity zone near 4,420–4,430
If price fails below 4,300, the ABC recovery idea loses quality and sellers may continue pressing lower.
▸ Trading scenario
Preferred scenario: wait for price to hold above 4,311–4,328 and confirm a recovery structure.
Entry zone: after bullish confirmation above the current reaction area
Stop loss: below 4,300
Take profit 1: 4,360–4,380
Take profit 2: 4,420–4,430
Take profit 3: 4,450 if the C wave expands
Alternative scenario: if gold breaks below 4,300 with strong momentum, the market may skip the ABC rebound and continue the bearish trend lower.
⌁ Kelly’s view
For Kelly, this is a potential ABC recovery setup inside a larger bearish structure. The current low is important, but buyers still need to prove strength before the rebound can gain quality.
The better approach is not to chase the first bounce. Watch whether price can hold above 4,311 and build a clean A-B-C structure towards the sell liquidity zone.
Gold is weak, but a corrective rebound may come first.
If the current low holds, early next week may begin with an ABC recovery phase.
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Disclaimer
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📌 New analysis published daily
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
🔔 Follow this profile for real-time updates
⚠️ This is personal analysis, not financial advice
Daily GOLD and Forex updates: t.me/+SOSI26CZOJ1mZDhl
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.