XAUUSD: The Floor Is Cracking, Sellers Still Control the Move
Market Context
Gold remains under short-term pressure as the market continues to respect the bearish structure. Recent price action shows that buyers are still weak and unable to create a strong recovery.
At the same time, gold is still influenced by USD strength, Fed expectations, and overall risk sentiment. As long as price cannot reclaim key resistance with conviction, any upward movement should be treated as a corrective pullback rather than a true reversal.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,062 after losing the 4,079 level, confirming that sellers are still in control of the short-term trend.
From an SMC perspective, price is now pressing into the weak low near 4,050. When price repeatedly tests the same low without strong bullish rejection, that level becomes vulnerable and more likely to break.
The 4,079 - 4,090 zone is now acting as the first reaction area above. If price retests this zone and fails to break higher, selling pressure may quickly return.
If the weak low at 4,050 is broken, the next downside target is around 4,020, where price may find temporary support.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,062
Weak Low: 4,050
Reaction Zone: 4,079 - 4,090
Downside Target: 4,020
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,090
Trading Plan
Sell Scenario 1: Breakout Continuation
Entry: Below 4,050 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,079
Take Profit 1: 4,020
Take Profit 2: 4,000
Take Profit 3: 3,980
Conditions:
Price breaks below the 4,050 weak low
Retest of the broken level fails
Bearish momentum continues after breakdown
Price remains below the 4,079 - 4,090 zone
Avoid chasing if price drops too far without a retest
Sell Scenario 2: Rejection From Resistance
Entry: 4,079 - 4,090 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,110
Take Profit 1: 4,050
Take Profit 2: 4,020
Take Profit 3: 4,000
Conditions:
Price retests the 4,079 - 4,090 zone
Fails to break above and shows bearish rejection
Sellers regain control from resistance
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,090 after breakout and retest
Stop Loss: Below 4,050
Take Profit 1: 4,120
Take Profit 2: 4,150
Take Profit 3: 4,170
Conditions:
Price breaks above 4,090
Retest holds successfully
Clear bullish CHOCH appears
Overall Bias
Gold is currently sitting on a fragile support level. Sellers remain in control as long as price stays below the 4,079 - 4,090 zone.
A confirmed break below 4,050 could open the path toward 4,020 and lower levels. For now, the best approach is to wait for confirmation instead of entering trades in the middle of the range.
What do you think — can buyers defend 4,050, or will gold continue lower toward 4,020?
Market Context
Gold remains under short-term pressure as the market continues to respect the bearish structure. Recent price action shows that buyers are still weak and unable to create a strong recovery.
At the same time, gold is still influenced by USD strength, Fed expectations, and overall risk sentiment. As long as price cannot reclaim key resistance with conviction, any upward movement should be treated as a corrective pullback rather than a true reversal.
Technical Structure
Gold is currently trading around 4,062 after losing the 4,079 level, confirming that sellers are still in control of the short-term trend.
From an SMC perspective, price is now pressing into the weak low near 4,050. When price repeatedly tests the same low without strong bullish rejection, that level becomes vulnerable and more likely to break.
The 4,079 - 4,090 zone is now acting as the first reaction area above. If price retests this zone and fails to break higher, selling pressure may quickly return.
If the weak low at 4,050 is broken, the next downside target is around 4,020, where price may find temporary support.
Key Levels
Current Price: 4,062
Weak Low: 4,050
Reaction Zone: 4,079 - 4,090
Downside Target: 4,020
Bullish Confirmation: Above 4,090
Trading Plan
Sell Scenario 1: Breakout Continuation
Entry: Below 4,050 after confirmed breakdown and retest
Stop Loss: Above 4,079
Take Profit 1: 4,020
Take Profit 2: 4,000
Take Profit 3: 3,980
Conditions:
Price breaks below the 4,050 weak low
Retest of the broken level fails
Bearish momentum continues after breakdown
Price remains below the 4,079 - 4,090 zone
Avoid chasing if price drops too far without a retest
Sell Scenario 2: Rejection From Resistance
Entry: 4,079 - 4,090 after bearish confirmation
Stop Loss: Above 4,110
Take Profit 1: 4,050
Take Profit 2: 4,020
Take Profit 3: 4,000
Conditions:
Price retests the 4,079 - 4,090 zone
Fails to break above and shows bearish rejection
Sellers regain control from resistance
Buy Scenario
Entry: Above 4,090 after breakout and retest
Stop Loss: Below 4,050
Take Profit 1: 4,120
Take Profit 2: 4,150
Take Profit 3: 4,170
Conditions:
Price breaks above 4,090
Retest holds successfully
Clear bullish CHOCH appears
Overall Bias
Gold is currently sitting on a fragile support level. Sellers remain in control as long as price stays below the 4,079 - 4,090 zone.
A confirmed break below 4,050 could open the path toward 4,020 and lower levels. For now, the best approach is to wait for confirmation instead of entering trades in the middle of the range.
What do you think — can buyers defend 4,050, or will gold continue lower toward 4,020?
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📌 Owen Steele · XAUUSD · SMC · Order Blocks · Liquidity
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
🕐Weekly outlook every Monday t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
💬 Deeper analysis & real-time updates
🔔 Boost if this helped · t.me/+up9c00DV6so3NWQ9
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.